Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Bryce Young Climbs, Rashod Bateman Slides (Week of July 21)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the July 14 and July 21 ADP snapshots, Bryce Young climbed 12.4 picks to an ADP of 162.0 while Rashod Bateman slid 12.0 picks to 167.2. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**Bryce Young (QB, CAR)**: ADP 174.4 to 162.0, up 12.4 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him QB26.
**Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, JAX)**: ADP 156.1 to 146.3, up 9.8 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB64, 19 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Travis Kelce (TE, KC)**: ADP 103.4 to 95.1, up 8.3 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE9.
**Hunter Henry (TE, NE)**: ADP 156.0 to 148.2, up 7.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE16.
**Daniel Jones (QB, IND)**: ADP 166.0 to 158.8, up 7.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at QB30, 6 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Chris Bell (WR, MIA)**: ADP 164.6 to 157.5, up 7.1 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at WR97, 28 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Cooper Kupp (WR, SEA)**: ADP 161.8 to 155.8, up 6.0 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR68.
**Tre' Harris (WR, LAC)**: ADP 176.3 to 171.0, up 5.3 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits WR72 for us, 4 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)**: ADP 155.2 to 167.2, down 12.0 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR88, 13 spots behind his market slot.
**Tank Bigsby (RB, PHI)**: ADP 146.4 to 157.5, down 11.1 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB63, 12 spots behind his market slot.
**Juwan Johnson (TE, NO)**: ADP 141.6 to 151.0, down 9.4 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE18.
**Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)**: ADP 149.7 to 158.1, down 8.4 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR67 for us, 4 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the DNR tag on the injury report.
**Tyler Allgeier (RB, ARI)**: ADP 168.8 to 177.1, down 8.3 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB60, 7 spots behind his market slot.
**Kenyon Sadiq (TE, NYJ)**: ADP 162.0 to 169.5, down 7.5 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE23. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)**: ADP 120.3 to 127.6, down 7.3 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE12.
**Keaton Mitchell (RB, LAC)**: ADP 159.7 to 166.2, down 6.5 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB66, 14 spots behind his market slot.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB10 at ADP 93.1; our blend ranks him QB2. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB47 at ADP 151.3; our blend ranks him RB39. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)**: the market drafts him RB48 at ADP 152.1; our blend ranks him RB40. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Zach Charbonnet (RB, SEA)**: the market drafts him RB50 at ADP 155.7; our blend ranks him RB43. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Questionable designation.
**Tank Dell (WR, HOU)**: the market drafts him WR70 at ADP 158.1; our blend ranks him WR63. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price. He carries a Questionable designation.
**RJ Harvey (RB, DEN)**: the market drafts him RB32 at ADP 89.3; our blend ranks him RB26. That is a 6 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Antonio Williams (WR, WAS)**: drafters take him WR64 at ADP 143.2; our blend has him WR93, 29 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Chris Bell (WR, MIA)**: drafters take him WR69 at ADP 157.5; our blend has him WR97, 28 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them. He carries a Questionable designation.
**Germie Bernard (WR, PIT)**: drafters take him WR73 at ADP 161.1; our blend has him WR95, 22 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, JAX)**: drafters take him RB45 at ADP 146.3; our blend has him RB64, 19 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them. He carries a Questionable designation.
**Malik Willis (QB, MIA)**: drafters take him QB23 at ADP 158.6; our blend has him QB40, 17 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Keaton Mitchell (RB, LAC)**: drafters take him RB52 at ADP 166.2; our blend has him RB66, 14 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.