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NBA logoNBA Player Props: Model Projections & Lines

The featured NBA player props for the next slate: the model's projection for each stat, the line at which the over and under split evenly and its lean, plus a search for any player's full over/under projections from rolling game logs. Projections refresh each morning with the DFS run.

Featured board for Tuesday, October 20: 20 players, 30 lines.

Featured props, model lines at the even split

PlayerStatLineOverLean
Victor WembanyamaFPoints2449%Even
Victor WembanyamaFRebounds11.545%Under
Tyrese MaxeyGPoints2850%Even
Tyrese MaxeyGRebounds453%Even
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGPoints30.551%Even
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGRebounds455%Over
Cade CunninghamGPoints23.547%Even
Cade CunninghamGRebounds5.546%Even
Jaylen BrownGPoints28.549%Even
Jaylen BrownGRebounds747%Even
Joel EmbiidCPoints2653%Even
Joel EmbiidCRebounds7.552%Even
Jayson TatumFPoints21.549%Even
Jayson TatumFRebounds1049%Even
Jalen BrunsonGPoints2651%Even
Jalen BrunsonGRebounds3.547%Even
Karl-Anthony TownsCPoints2051%Even
Karl-Anthony TownsCRebounds1249%Even
LeBron JamesFPoints20.551%Even
LeBron JamesFRebounds6.541%Under
Jalen DurenCPoints1949%Even
Jalen DurenCRebounds1051%Even
Stephon CastleGPoints1649%Even
Stephon CastleGRebounds552%Even
Derrick WhiteGPoints1749%Even
Derrick WhiteGRebounds463%Over
De'Aaron FoxGPoints17.552%Even
De'Aaron FoxGRebounds3.553%Even
Chet HolmgrenCPoints1748%Even
Chet HolmgrenCRebounds8.553%Even

How to read this page

  • The line shown is the model's own, set where the over and under are near coin flips. A book line well below it makes the over interesting; well above it, the under.
  • Over and under percentages come from the spread of the player's recent outcomes around the projection, so high-variance players show wider splits than steady ones.
  • Props are graded on the box score. The Model Card carries the day's best five and their record.