NBA Best Bets Today: Model vs Market Edges

Every upcoming NBA game where the model's own probability differs from the sportsbook's price, sorted by the size of the disagreement, with fair odds, the edge in percentage points and a fractional-Kelly stake. Edges are recomputed as lines move through the day.

14 priced games; 13 clear the two-point floor. Sorted by edge, largest first.

MIL

WSH

MIL

72.9%

WSH

27.1%

+164

-198

+36.6% MIL

Kelly: 8.9%

CHA

BKN

CHA

78.4%

BKN

21.6%

-108

-112

+28.84% CHA

Kelly: 8.4%

OKC

70.3%

29.7%

+114

-135

+25.41% OKC

Kelly: 6.9%

MIN

MIA

MIN

24.5%

MIA

75.5%

-105

-115

+24.41% MIA

Kelly: 7.4%

CHI

TOR

CHI

40.0%

TOR

60.0%

+310

-395

+16.61% CHI

Kelly: 3.3%

BOS

DET

BOS

63.6%

DET

36.4%

-115

-105

+12.55% BOS

Kelly: 2.9%

SAC

LAC

SAC

26.6%

LAC

73.4%

+150

-180

+11.75% LAC

Kelly: 3.2%

LAL

44.9%

LAL

55.1%

+185

-225

+11.25% GS

Kelly: 1.5%

IND

49.2%

50.8%

-162

+136

+10.15% NO

Kelly: 2.3%

UTAH

MEM

UTAH

38.1%

MEM

61.9%

-102

-118

+10.11% MEM

Kelly: 1.7%

PHX

POR

PHX

48.2%

POR

51.8%

+140

-166

+8.2% PHX

Kelly: 1.6%

PHI

30.8%

69.2%

+150

-180

+7.59% NY

Kelly: 1.8%

DAL

HOU

DAL

31.1%

HOU

68.9%

+295

-375

+6.83% DAL

Kelly: 1.5%

ATL

ORL

ATL

43.5%

ORL

56.5%

+120

-142

+0.2% ORL

How to read this page

Edge is the model's probability minus the market's implied probability with the vig removed. Two points is the floor for a play, eight or more is rated strong, and outliers usually mean the market knows something the model does not yet.
Kelly fraction is the bankroll share the edge would justify at full Kelly; most bettors size at a quarter of it or less.
The Model Card takes the day's most likely winners, not the biggest edges; the two boards answer different questions.