NBA Playoff Odds & Season Projections

Each NBA team's chance to make the playoffs, win its division and finish with the league's best record, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule on the model's own game probabilities. This is the model's projection, not a market price and not a clinching calculation; it reruns every morning.

30 teams, last simulation run 2026-10-19; the preseason prior still carries 82% of each game probability; market prices as of 2026-10-19.

NBA Playoff Odds & Season Projections

This is the model's projection, not a market price and not a clinching calculation: 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule on the model's own game probabilities, refreshed daily (last run 2026-10-19). Playoff odds are the share of simulations in which the team earns a berth (Top 8 per conference; seeds 7 to 10 go through the play-in, so a play-in seed counts here as a berth.) Best-record odds are the share in which it finishes with the league's best record.

Early in the season the model has few games to read, so 82% of each game probability comes from a preseason strength built from the market's season totals (three quarters) and last season's results (one quarter), market as of 2026-10-19; it fades out as games are played. "Market" is Pinnacle's price for the team to make the playoffs, vig removed.

OKC

95.0%playoffs

Now: 1-4Proj: 56.2 WRange: 22-80Market: 93.0%Division: 30.3%Best record: 18.6%

92.9%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 55.1 WRange: 23-80Market: 93.5%Division: 24.3%Best record: 15.8%

BOS

87.7%playoffs

Now: 4-0Proj: 52.6 WRange: 17-79Market: 83.0%Division: 23.7%Best record: 11.4%

DEN

82.0%playoffs

Now: 3-2Proj: 50 WRange: 17-80Market: 83.3%Division: 12.7%Best record: 6.8%

DET

81.5%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 50.3 WRange: 17-77Market: 77.6%Division: 15.8%Best record: 7.4%

HOU

80.8%playoffs

Now: 2-1Proj: 48.5 WRange: 18-76Market: 80.9%Division: 11.9%Best record: 5.4%

77.8%playoffs

Now: 1-4Proj: 49.5 WRange: 15-76Market: 85.4%Division: 12.5%Best record: 5.7%

MIA

72.6%playoffs

Now: 3-2Proj: 48 WRange: 14-77Market: 70.7%Division: 10.2%Best record: 4.5%

MIN

69.1%playoffs

Now: 3-3Proj: 46 WRange: 12-76Market: 83.3%Division: 5.3%Best record: 2.6%

LAL

68.2%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 45.3 WRange: 14-73Market: 74.1%Division: 5.3%Best record: 2.5%

CLE

65.0%playoffs

Now: 1-2Proj: 44.8 WRange: 11-74Market: 78.5%Division: 6.5%Best record: 2.3%

TOR

62.8%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 45.4 WRange: 10-74Market: 69.4%Division: 6.1%Best record: 2.7%

ORL

62.8%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 44.8 WRange: 12-75Market: 53.9%Division: 5.8%Best record: 2.5%

ATL

62.3%playoffs

Now: 4-1Proj: 45.1 WRange: 14-78Market: 55.3%Division: 6.2%Best record: 2.5%

PHI

60.1%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 44.3 WRange: 12-73Market: 83.5%Division: 5.1%Best record: 2.2%

56.6%playoffs

Now: 4-2Proj: 43.1 WRange: 12-75Market: 45.9%Division: 2.8%Best record: 1.4%

POR

56.0%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 42 WRange: 10-74Market: 57.4%Division: 2.9%Best record: 1.2%

CHA

51.3%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 41.8 WRange: 11-75Market: 33.5%Division: 3.7%Best record: 1.3%

IND

47.5%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 40.9 WRange: 9-72Market: 64.3%Division: 2.8%Best record: 0.9%

PHX

46.2%playoffs

Now: 1-4Proj: 40 WRange: 9-71Market: 48.0%Division: 1.5%Best record: 0.6%

LAC

34.8%playoffs

Now: 2-1Proj: 36.3 WRange: 7-68Market: 14.1%Division: 0.9%Best record: 0.3%

UTAH

33.2%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 36.7 WRange: 8-72Market: 40.1%Division: 0.9%Best record: 0.3%

DAL

31.6%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 35.8 WRange: 8-72Market: 29.3%Division: 0.6%Best record: 0.2%

24.3%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 34 WRange: 7-70Market: 16.0%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.2%

MEM

23.0%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 33.6 WRange: 6-66Market: 15.5%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.1%

CHI

22.8%playoffs

Now: 3-2Proj: 34.9 WRange: 9-70Market: 9.7%Division: 0.7%Best record: 0.2%

WSH

19.4%playoffs

Now: 2-2Proj: 33.5 WRange: 6-69Market: 28.7%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.1%

MIL

15.5%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 32.6 WRange: 7-68Market: 7.5%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.1%

BKN

10.9%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 29.8 WRange: 5-69Market: 6.1%Division: 0.2%Best record: 0.1%

SAC

6.1%playoffs

Now: 0-5Proj: 26 WRange: 3-62Market: 5.5%Division: 0.0%Best record: 0.0%

Every number above is the model's own. For where teams actually stand today, see the standings; for projected win totals by team, see projected standings.

How to read this page

Playoff odds are the share of simulations in which the team earns a berth under the league's real format. Division odds and best-record odds are the same share for those outcomes.
Early in the season each team's strength leans on a preseason prior built from the market's season totals and last season's results; it fades out as real games are played.
Where a market column appears it is Pinnacle's price for the team to make the playoffs with the vig removed, shown beside ours so you can see where the model and the books disagree.

NBA Playoff Odds & Season Projections

OKC

95.0%playoffs

Now: 1-4Proj: 56.2 WRange: 22-80Market: 93.0%Division: 30.3%Best record: 18.6%

92.9%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 55.1 WRange: 23-80Market: 93.5%Division: 24.3%Best record: 15.8%

BOS

87.7%playoffs

Now: 4-0Proj: 52.6 WRange: 17-79Market: 83.0%Division: 23.7%Best record: 11.4%

DEN

82.0%playoffs

Now: 3-2Proj: 50 WRange: 17-80Market: 83.3%Division: 12.7%Best record: 6.8%

DET

81.5%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 50.3 WRange: 17-77Market: 77.6%Division: 15.8%Best record: 7.4%

HOU

80.8%playoffs

Now: 2-1Proj: 48.5 WRange: 18-76Market: 80.9%Division: 11.9%Best record: 5.4%

77.8%playoffs

Now: 1-4Proj: 49.5 WRange: 15-76Market: 85.4%Division: 12.5%Best record: 5.7%

MIA

72.6%playoffs

Now: 3-2Proj: 48 WRange: 14-77Market: 70.7%Division: 10.2%Best record: 4.5%

MIN

69.1%playoffs

Now: 3-3Proj: 46 WRange: 12-76Market: 83.3%Division: 5.3%Best record: 2.6%

LAL

68.2%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 45.3 WRange: 14-73Market: 74.1%Division: 5.3%Best record: 2.5%

CLE

65.0%playoffs

Now: 1-2Proj: 44.8 WRange: 11-74Market: 78.5%Division: 6.5%Best record: 2.3%

TOR

62.8%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 45.4 WRange: 10-74Market: 69.4%Division: 6.1%Best record: 2.7%

ORL

62.8%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 44.8 WRange: 12-75Market: 53.9%Division: 5.8%Best record: 2.5%

ATL

62.3%playoffs

Now: 4-1Proj: 45.1 WRange: 14-78Market: 55.3%Division: 6.2%Best record: 2.5%

PHI

60.1%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 44.3 WRange: 12-73Market: 83.5%Division: 5.1%Best record: 2.2%

56.6%playoffs

Now: 4-2Proj: 43.1 WRange: 12-75Market: 45.9%Division: 2.8%Best record: 1.4%

POR

56.0%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 42 WRange: 10-74Market: 57.4%Division: 2.9%Best record: 1.2%

CHA

51.3%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 41.8 WRange: 11-75Market: 33.5%Division: 3.7%Best record: 1.3%

IND

47.5%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 40.9 WRange: 9-72Market: 64.3%Division: 2.8%Best record: 0.9%

PHX

46.2%playoffs

Now: 1-4Proj: 40 WRange: 9-71Market: 48.0%Division: 1.5%Best record: 0.6%

LAC

34.8%playoffs

Now: 2-1Proj: 36.3 WRange: 7-68Market: 14.1%Division: 0.9%Best record: 0.3%

UTAH

33.2%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 36.7 WRange: 8-72Market: 40.1%Division: 0.9%Best record: 0.3%

DAL

31.6%playoffs

Now: 1-3Proj: 35.8 WRange: 8-72Market: 29.3%Division: 0.6%Best record: 0.2%

24.3%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 34 WRange: 7-70Market: 16.0%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.2%

MEM

23.0%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 33.6 WRange: 6-66Market: 15.5%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.1%

CHI

22.8%playoffs

Now: 3-2Proj: 34.9 WRange: 9-70Market: 9.7%Division: 0.7%Best record: 0.2%

WSH

19.4%playoffs

Now: 2-2Proj: 33.5 WRange: 6-69Market: 28.7%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.1%

MIL

15.5%playoffs

Now: 2-3Proj: 32.6 WRange: 7-68Market: 7.5%Division: 0.4%Best record: 0.1%

BKN

10.9%playoffs

Now: 3-1Proj: 29.8 WRange: 5-69Market: 6.1%Division: 0.2%Best record: 0.1%

SAC

6.1%playoffs

Now: 0-5Proj: 26 WRange: 3-62Market: 5.5%Division: 0.0%Best record: 0.0%

Every number above is the model's own. For where teams actually stand today, see the standings; for projected win totals by team, see projected standings.