NFL2026-11-05Jaguars vs Ravens Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 9 Picks, Props and Start/Sit
By Verdexed Analytics
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, Thursday, November 5, 8:15 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium. Forecast: overcast, 67F, wind 2 mph. The model makes JAX the more likely winner at 80%; the market has JAX at 81%. The line is JAX -10.0, total 39.5. Everything below comes from the model's own numbers, refreshed through the day; the card legs lock at kickoff.
The pick
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL | Lock | JAX | 80% | -550 | 81% | -1 |
The model has JAX at 80% against a market price of 81%. What drives it: EPA per play (+12.1 points), point margin (+8.7 points), quarterback (+3.4 points). The case against is injuries (BAL without Hawkins; Wiggins day-to-day; JAX without Murray; Tuten, Walker day-to-day) (-1.3 points). Injuries (BAL without Hawkins; Wiggins day-to-day; JAX without Murray; Tuten, Walker day-to-day): -1.3 points against JAX. The line is JAX -10.0, total 39.5.
| JAX | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +12.1 | -3.0 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 1 win |
Quarterbacks and who is out
JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: DaVon Hamilton, Eric Murray. BAL starter: Joe Fagnano. BAL out: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Adam Randall, Ethan Pocic, Jaylinn Hawkins. Thursday is a short week for both teams; inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the number is refreshed when they do.
The matchups on the play-by-play
This season's numbers from every snap (JAX 7 games, BAL 8), with the league rank in brackets (1st is best for that side of the ball). Edge is the defence's rank minus the offence's: positive favours the offence. EPA per play is what the model uses: it is the one play-by-play number that improved the forecast when tested season by season.
When Jaguars have the ball
| Stat | JAX offence | BAL defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 (3rd) | +0.01 (18th) | +15 |
| Success rate | 47.5% (7th) | 44.4% (21st) | +14 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.8% (2nd) | 7.2% (11th) | +9 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.27 (3rd) | +0.06 (17th) | +14 |
| EPA per rush | +0.03 (3rd) | -0.05 (23rd) | +20 |
| Third-down conversion | 48.8% (4th) | 39.6% (12th) | +8 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.4% (7th) | 67.9% (24th) | +17 |
| Sack rate | 5.8% (15th) | 5.6% (19th) | +4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.7 (6th) | 1.0 (22nd) | +16 |
| Completion % over expected | +3.4 (7th) | +2.1 (23rd) | +16 |
When Ravens have the ball
| Stat | BAL offence | JAX defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 (14th) | -0.10 (4th) | -10 |
| Success rate | 45.6% (12th) | 42.2% (11th) | -1 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.2% (19th) | 7.3% (12th) | -7 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.09 (14th) | -0.05 (6th) | -8 |
| EPA per rush | -0.07 (16th) | -0.19 (1st) | -15 |
| Third-down conversion | 40.0% (15th) | 36.7% (9th) | -6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.3% (15th) | 40.9% (4th) | -11 |
| Sack rate | 8.2% (26th) | 5.6% (22nd) | -4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.0 (10th) | 1.7 (5th) | -5 |
| Completion % over expected | +2.0 (10th) | +4.9 (30th) | +20 |
How they play
Charted tendencies from FTN this season. These describe each team's system; matched against each other they did not improve the forecast when tested, so they are context here, not part of the number.
| Tendency | JAX | BAL | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expected, points above the league (offence) | -2.6 | -2.0 | 0.0 |
| Play action on dropbacks (offence) | 25% | 26% | 23% |
| Motion at the snap (offence) | 64% | 65% | 59% |
| Blitz rate (defence) | 30% | 33% | 32% |
| Eight or more in the box on runs (defence) | 15% | 7% | 8% |
Player props
On the Model Card (the half-point line where the model gives the over at least 65%):
| Player | Call | Team | Prop | Our projection | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Lean | JAX | Over 193.5 passing yards | 222.4 | 65% |
| Zay Flowers | Play | BAL | Over 3.5 receptions | 5.1 | 75% |
Every player line: the over is a play at the first number or lower, the under at the second or higher (where our distribution gives that side 57%).
| Player | Team | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | passing yards | 222.4 | 205.5 or lower | 228.5 or higher |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | rushing yards | 14.8 | 10.5 or lower | 14.5 or higher |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | receptions | 5.1 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | receiving yards | 73.4 | 60.5 or lower | 74.5 or higher |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | rushing yards | 53.6 | 45.5 or lower | 54.5 or higher |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | receptions | 1.5 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Parker Washington | JAX | receptions | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Parker Washington | JAX | receiving yards | 58.1 | 48.5 or lower | 58.5 or higher |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | rushing yards | 63.3 | 53.5 or lower | 64.5 or higher |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | receiving yards | 10.1 | 7.5 or lower | 10.5 or higher |
| Joe Fagnano | BAL | passing yards | 156.8 | 144.5 or lower | 160.5 or higher |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | receptions | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | receiving yards | 36.4 | 29.5 or lower | 37.5 or higher |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | receptions | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | receiving yards | 29.1 | 23.5 or lower | 29.5 or higher |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | receptions | 2.9 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | receiving yards | 33.1 | 27.5 or lower | 33.5 or higher |
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 0.91 | 60% | -148 | -131 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 0.47 | 38% | +167 | +181 |
| Parker Washington | JAX | 0.46 | 37% | +171 | +185 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 0.34 | 29% | +247 | +265 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 0.21 | 19% | +429 | +457 |
Start or sit
This week's PPR projections from the weekly board, with the call by positional rank across the whole week. Players ruled out are left off.
| Player | Call | Pos | Team | Proj | Range | Rank this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Start | QB | JAX | 18.8 | 10.4 to 30.2 | QB12 |
| Parker Washington | Start | WR | JAX | 15.1 | 8.3 to 24.1 | WR14 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Start if active | RB | JAX | 14.9 | 8.2 to 23.8 | RB14 |
| Zay Flowers | Start | WR | BAL | 14.4 | 7.9 to 23.0 | WR16 |
| Derrick Henry | Start | RB | BAL | 12.7 | 7.0 to 20.4 | RB21 |
| Jakobi Meyers | Flex | WR | JAX | 11.9 | 6.5 to 19.0 | WR33 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Flex | WR | JAX | 10.8 | 5.9 to 17.2 | WR44 |
| Brenton Strange | Start | TE | JAX | 10.5 | 5.8 to 16.9 | TE12 |
| Joe Fagnano | Sit | QB | BAL | 9.1 | 5.0 to 14.6 | QB30 |
| JAX D/ST | Must start | DST | JAX | 9.1 | - | DST2 |
| Mark Andrews | Sit | TE | BAL | 7.1 | 3.9 to 11.3 | TE29 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | Sit | RB | JAX | 6.8 | 3.8 to 10.9 | RB44 |
| Rashod Bateman | Sit | WR | BAL | 6.5 | 3.6 to 10.3 | WR76 |
| Justice Hill | Sit | RB | BAL | 6.2 | 3.4 to 10.0 | RB48 |
The props ticket
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Zay Flowers over 3.5 receptions; Trevor Lawrence over 193.5 passing yards | +105 (fair) | 49% | +105 |
The props card as one ticket, at fair odds (props carry no posted price here). This piece prints no same-game ticket that pairs a side with its own quarterback's passing over: those legs pull against each other.
The record
Graded regular-season NFL picks since 2026-09-01: 72 of 119 (60.5%), Brier score 0.229. Every pick, every voided pick with its reason and the hit rate by confidence band are on the NFL accuracy page; the live card is on the Model Cards page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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