NFL2026-10-22Patriots vs Bears Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 7 Picks, Props and Start/Sit
By Verdexed Analytics
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, Thursday, October 22, 8:15 PM ET at Soldier Field. Forecast: clear, 56F, wind 5 mph. The model makes NE the more likely winner at 53%; the market has NE at 42%. The line is CHI -3.0, total 50.5. Everything below comes from the model's own numbers, refreshed through the day; the card legs lock at kickoff.
The pick
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI | Lean | NE | 53% | +130 | 42% | +11 |
The model has NE at 53% against a market price of 42%. What drives it: epa per play (+7.7 points), point margin (+0.8 points), venue (+0.8 points). The case against is offense (-1.2 points). Injuries (CHI without Edwards, Monangai, Sanborn; Stevenson day-to-day; NE without Doubs, Davis; Byard, Elliss day-to-day): -1.0 points against NE. The line is CHI -3.0, total 50.5. That is an 11-point gap to the market: our side is worth a look at the current price.
| NE | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +3.8 | +5.2 |
| Home / road | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 1 win |
Quarterbacks and who is out
NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Ben Brown, Carlton Davis III, Channing Canada. CHI starter: Caleb Williams. CHI out: Kyle Monangai, Anthony Johnson Jr., Dayo Odeyingbo, Jack Sanborn, Montez Sweat. Crew: Alan Eck has been tough on CHI (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 0-3 in 3 games). Thursday is a short week for both teams; inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the number is refreshed when they do.
The matchups on the play-by-play
This season's numbers from every snap (NE 6 games, CHI 6), with the league rank in brackets (1st is best for that side of the ball). Edge is the defence's rank minus the offence's: positive favours the offence. EPA per play is what the model uses: it is the one play-by-play number that improved the forecast when tested season by season.
When Patriots have the ball
| Stat | NE offence | CHI defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 (11th) | -0.03 (15th) | +4 |
| Success rate | 45.0% (12th) | 40.7% (5th) | -7 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.6% (14th) | 9.6% (31st) | +17 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.18 (7th) | -0.02 (9th) | +2 |
| EPA per rush | -0.16 (25th) | -0.05 (24th) | -1 |
| Third-down conversion | 44.2% (9th) | 25.8% (2nd) | -7 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.6% (18th) | 66.7% (22nd) | +4 |
| Sack rate | 5.0% (9th) | 8.9% (2nd) | -7 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.2 (30th) | 1.2 (19th) | -11 |
| Completion % over expected | +5.4 (3rd) | +0.1 (14th) | +11 |
When Bears have the ball
| Stat | CHI offence | NE defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 (13th) | -0.01 (18th) | +5 |
| Success rate | 46.8% (10th) | 43.3% (16th) | +6 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.9% (13th) | 7.0% (15th) | +2 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.09 (14th) | +0.01 (14th) | +0 |
| EPA per rush | -0.05 (15th) | -0.05 (25th) | +10 |
| Third-down conversion | 46.0% (7th) | 37.1% (10th) | +3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0% (22nd) | 50.0% (8th) | -14 |
| Sack rate | 6.3% (20th) | 6.6% (15th) | -5 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.2 (29th) | 1.2 (21st) | -8 |
| Completion % over expected | +4.6 (6th) | +2.2 (21st) | +15 |
How they play
Charted tendencies from FTN this season. These describe each team's system; matched against each other they did not improve the forecast when tested, so they are context here, not part of the number.
| Tendency | NE | CHI | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expected, points above the league (offence) | +1.1 | +0.4 | 0.0 |
| Play action on dropbacks (offence) | 23% | 32% | 23% |
| Motion at the snap (offence) | 55% | 53% | 58% |
| Blitz rate (defence) | 35% | 42% | 31% |
| Eight or more in the box on runs (defence) | 16% | 16% | 8% |
Player props
On the Model Card (the half-point line where the model gives the over at least 65%):
| Player | Call | Team | Prop | Our projection | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Lean | CHI | Over 195.5 passing yards | 225.4 | 66% |
| D'Andre Swift | Lean | CHI | Over 61.5 rushing yards | 79.5 | 65% |
Every player line: the over is a play at the first number or lower, the under at the second or higher (where our distribution gives that side 57%).
| Player | Team | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | CHI | passing yards | 225.4 | 208.5 or lower | 231.5 or higher |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | rushing yards | 28.7 | 20.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | rushing yards | 79.5 | 67.5 or lower | 80.5 or higher |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | receptions | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Drake Maye | NE | passing yards | 218.1 | 201.5 or lower | 223.5 or higher |
| Drake Maye | NE | rushing yards | 26.4 | 18.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| A.J. Brown | NE | receptions | 5.2 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| A.J. Brown | NE | receiving yards | 64.7 | 53.5 or lower | 65.5 or higher |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | receptions | 4.7 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | receiving yards | 58.2 | 48.5 or lower | 58.5 or higher |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | receptions | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | receiving yards | 50.3 | 41.5 or lower | 51.5 or higher |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | rushing yards | 43.1 | 36.5 or lower | 44.5 or higher |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | receptions | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | receptions | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | receiving yards | 43 | 35.5 or lower | 43.5 or higher |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | receptions | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | receiving yards | 50 | 41.5 or lower | 50.5 or higher |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | receptions | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | receiving yards | 39 | 32.5 or lower | 39.5 or higher |
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 0.85 | 57% | -134 | -119 |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 0.37 | 31% | +224 | +241 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 0.35 | 30% | +239 | +257 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| A.J. Brown | NE | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | 0.31 | 27% | +275 | +294 |
| Efton Chism III | NE | 0.29 | 25% | +297 | +318 |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 0.27 | 24% | +322 | +344 |
Start or sit
This week's PPR projections from the weekly board, with the call by positional rank across the whole week. Players ruled out are left off.
| Player | Call | Pos | Team | Proj | Range | Rank this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Start | QB | CHI | 20.1 | 11.0 to 32.1 | QB8 |
| Drake Maye | Start | QB | NE | 18.2 | 10.0 to 29.2 | QB12 |
| D'Andre Swift | Start | RB | CHI | 17.6 | 9.7 to 28.2 | RB7 |
| Luther Burden III | Start | WR | CHI | 15.7 | 8.6 to 25.1 | WR17 |
| A.J. Brown | Start | WR | NE | 14.1 | 7.8 to 22.5 | WR22 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Start | RB | NE | 12.5 | 6.9 to 20.0 | RB21 |
| Rome Odunze | Start | WR | CHI | 12.0 | 6.6 to 19.3 | WR30 |
| DeMario Douglas | Flex | WR | NE | 11.9 | 6.5 to 19.0 | WR31 |
| Colston Loveland | Start | TE | CHI | 11.2 | 6.2 to 18.0 | TE8 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | Start | RB | NE | 11.2 | 6.1 to 17.9 | RB24 |
| Kalif Raymond | Flex | WR | CHI | 10.4 | 5.7 to 16.6 | WR38 |
| Hunter Henry | Sit | TE | NE | 9.4 | 5.2 to 15.1 | TE18 |
| Efton Chism III | Sit | WR | NE | 9.2 | 5.1 to 14.8 | WR48 |
| Kyle Williams | Sit | WR | NE | 7.0 | 4.5 to 13.1 | WR70 |
The props ticket
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Caleb Williams over 195.5 passing yards; D'Andre Swift over 61.5 rushing yards | +133 (fair) | 43% | +133 |
The props card as one ticket, at fair odds (props carry no posted price here). This piece prints no same-game ticket that pairs a side with its own quarterback's passing over: those legs pull against each other.
The record
Graded regular-season NFL picks since 2026-09-01: 55 of 91 (60.4%), Brier score 0.232. Every pick, every voided pick with its reason and the hit rate by confidence band are on the NFL accuracy page; the live card is on the Model Cards page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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