NFL2026-10-15Seahawks vs Broncos Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 6 Picks, Props and Start/Sit
By Verdexed Analytics
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos, Thursday, October 15, 8:15 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High. Forecast: clear, 49F, wind 2 mph. The model makes SEA the more likely winner at 51%; the market has SEA at 56%. The line is SEA -2.5, total 40.5. Everything below comes from the model's own numbers, refreshed through the day; the card legs lock at kickoff.
The pick
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN | Lean | SEA | 51% | -142 | 56% | -6 |
The model has SEA at 51% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: point margin (+9.0 points), epa per play (+8.5 points), offense (+5.0 points). The case against is venue (-1.2 points). Injuries (DEN without Bryant; SEA without Charbonnet): -1.0 points against SEA. The line is SEA -2.5, total 40.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market: the market is firmer on SEA than we are, so the price is a little rich on our numbers.
| SEA | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +5.8 | -2.8 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 0 wins |
Quarterbacks and who is out
SEA starter: Sam Darnold. SEA out: Jadarian Price, Zach Charbonnet, Chazz Surratt, Drake Thomas, Julian Neal. DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: Pat Bryant, Jonathon Cooper, Pat Surtain II, Talanoa Hufanga. Thursday is a short week for both teams; inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the number is refreshed when they do.
The matchups on the play-by-play
This season's numbers from every snap (SEA 5 games, DEN 5), with the league rank in brackets (1st is best for that side of the ball). Edge is the defence's rank minus the offence's: positive favours the offence. EPA per play is what the model uses: it is the one play-by-play number that improved the forecast when tested season by season.
When Seahawks have the ball
| Stat | SEA offence | DEN defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 (25th) | -0.03 (14th) | -11 |
| Success rate | 41.5% (22nd) | 40.6% (5th) | -17 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% (13th) | 7.7% (21st) | +8 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.09 (16th) | -0.04 (4th) | -12 |
| EPA per rush | -0.27 (30th) | +0.00 (29th) | -1 |
| Third-down conversion | 31.6% (30th) | 47.2% (26th) | -4 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.9% (17th) | 53.3% (11th) | -6 |
| Sack rate | 6.8% (20th) | 7.0% (13th) | -7 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.2 (31st) | 1.6 (9th) | -22 |
| Completion % over expected | +4.0 (9th) | -2.7 (6th) | -3 |
When Broncos have the ball
| Stat | DEN offence | SEA defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 (24th) | -0.13 (2nd) | -22 |
| Success rate | 39.9% (26th) | 38.3% (2nd) | -24 |
| Explosive play rate | 6.6% (21st) | 5.0% (3rd) | -18 |
| EPA per dropback | -0.08 (25th) | -0.08 (2nd) | -23 |
| EPA per rush | -0.04 (13th) | -0.21 (3rd) | -10 |
| Third-down conversion | 34.4% (28th) | 33.8% (5th) | -23 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.2% (19th) | 75.0% (26th) | +7 |
| Sack rate | 3.4% (4th) | 7.6% (8th) | +4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.0 (13th) | 1.8 (7th) | -6 |
| Completion % over expected | -2.6 (27th) | +0.2 (13th) | -14 |
How they play
Charted tendencies from FTN this season. These describe each team's system; matched against each other they did not improve the forecast when tested, so they are context here, not part of the number.
| Tendency | SEA | DEN | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expected, points above the league (offence) | -2.5 | -1.3 | 0.0 |
| Play action on dropbacks (offence) | 27% | 18% | 20% |
| Motion at the snap (offence) | 46% | 45% | 48% |
| Blitz rate (defence) | 17% | 33% | 25% |
| Eight or more in the box on runs (defence) | 2% | 13% | 8% |
Player props
On the Model Card (the half-point line where the model gives the over at least 65%):
| Player | Call | Team | Prop | Our projection | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Play | SEA | Over 3.5 receptions | 5.2 | 76% |
| Sam Darnold | Lean | SEA | Over 156.5 passing yards | 180.4 | 66% |
Every player line: the over is a play at the first number or lower, the under at the second or higher (where our distribution gives that side 57%).
| Player | Team | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | receptions | 5.4 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | receiving yards | 77.9 | 64.5 or lower | 78.5 or higher |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | passing yards | 180.4 | 166.5 or lower | 185.5 or higher |
| Bo Nix | DEN | passing yards | 162.6 | 150.5 or lower | 166.5 or higher |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | receptions | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | receiving yards | 44.5 | 36.5 or lower | 45.5 or higher |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | rushing yards | 44.8 | 37.5 or lower | 45.5 or higher |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | rushing yards | 15.8 | 13.5 or lower | 16.5 or higher |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | receptions | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | rushing yards | 45.7 | 38.5 or lower | 46.5 or higher |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | receptions | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | receiving yards | 32.9 | 27.5 or lower | 33.5 or higher |
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 0.95 | 61% | -158 | -139 |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 0.27 | 24% | +322 | +344 |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
| Tory Horton | SEA | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 0.21 | 19% | +429 | +457 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 0.20 | 18% | +452 | +482 |
| Nate Adkins | DEN | 0.20 | 18% | +452 | +482 |
Start or sit
This week's PPR projections from the weekly board, with the call by positional rank across the whole week. Players ruled out are left off.
| Player | Call | Pos | Team | Proj | Range | Rank this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Must start | WR | SEA | 20.7 | 11.4 to 33.1 | WR3 |
| Bo Nix | Sit | QB | DEN | 13.0 | 7.1 to 20.8 | QB24 |
| Sam Darnold | Sit | QB | SEA | 11.6 | 6.4 to 18.5 | QB28 |
| Jaylen Waddle | Flex | WR | DEN | 10.2 | 5.6 to 16.4 | WR43 |
| RJ Harvey | Flex | RB | DEN | 10.0 | 5.5 to 16.0 | RB29 |
| Emanuel Wilson | Flex | RB | SEA | 8.9 | 4.9 to 14.2 | RB35 |
| J.K. Dobbins | Flex | RB | DEN | 8.5 | 4.7 to 13.7 | RB36 |
| Courtland Sutton | Sit | WR | DEN | 8.2 | 4.5 to 13.1 | WR60 |
| AJ Barner | Sit | TE | SEA | 7.8 | 4.3 to 12.5 | TE22 |
| Rashid Shaheed | Sit | WR | SEA | 7.7 | 4.2 to 12.3 | WR66 |
| SEA D/ST | Start | DST | SEA | 7.5 | - | DST9 |
| Evan Engram | Sit | TE | DEN | 7.3 | 4.0 to 11.7 | TE28 |
| Cooper Kupp | Sit | WR | SEA | 7.1 | 3.9 to 11.4 | WR68 |
| DEN D/ST | Flex | DST | DEN | 7.0 | - | DST13 |
The props ticket
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 3.5 receptions; Sam Darnold over 156.5 passing yards | +100 (fair) | 50.0% | +100 |
The props card as one ticket, at fair odds (props carry no posted price here). This piece prints no same-game ticket that pairs a side with its own quarterback's passing over: those legs pull against each other.
The record
Graded regular-season NFL picks since 2026-09-01: 47 of 77 (61.0%), Brier score 0.228. Every pick, every voided pick with its reason and the hit rate by confidence band are on the NFL accuracy page; the live card is on the Model Cards page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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