NFL Picks for Week 3: The Model Went 9-7
By Verdexed Analytics
16 NFL games on Week 3. The model went 9-7 on the week. Season to date through September 28: 28-19 (59.6%), Brier 0.234.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before kickoff that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the NFL accuracy page.
The board
| Date | Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 | ATL at GB | GB | 64% | 55% | 68% | ATL 35-14 | Miss |
| September 27 | SEA at WSH | SEA | 77% | 77% | 77% | WSH 33-31 | Miss |
| September 27 | ARI at SF | SF | 77% | 77% | 77% | SF 36-30 | Hit |
| September 27 | LAC at BUF | BUF | 76% | 78% | 73% | BUF 24-16 | Hit |
| September 27 | NYJ at DET | DET | 73% | 73% | 72% | DET 31-24 | Hit |
| September 27 | KC at MIA | KC | 68% | 61% | 81% | KC 24-10 | Hit |
| September 27 | HOU at IND | HOU | 59% | 62% | 53% | IND 19-17 | Miss |
| September 27 | BAL at DAL | BAL | 57% | 56% | 59% | BAL 34-31 | Hit |
| September 27 | LV at NO | NO | 57% | 53% | 64% | LV 35-27 | Miss |
| September 27 | TEN at NYG | NYG | 57% | 62% | 54% | NYG 12-7 | Hit |
| September 27 | CIN at PIT | CIN | 56% | 53% | 62% | PIT 30-27 | Miss |
| September 27 | MIN at TB | MIN | 56% | 68% | 51% | MIN 23-16 | Hit |
| September 27 | NE at JAX | JAX | 55% | 54% | 58% | JAX 35-6 | Hit |
| September 27 | CAR at CLE | CLE | 55% | 60% | 45% | CLE 21-18 | Hit |
| September 27 | LAR at DEN | LAR | 53% | 52% | 54% | DEN 30-26 | Miss |
| September 28 | PHI at CHI | PHI | 60% | 52% | 64% | CHI 27-7 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CAR at CLE: the model took CLE (60%), the market CAR; the served pick was CLE and the pick hit. KC over MIA: model 61%, market 81%, a 20-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over TB: model 68%, market 51%, a 17-point gap; the pick hit. GB over ATL: model 55%, market 68%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over CHI: model 52%, market 64%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed. NO over LV: model 53%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: SEA 77% over WSH (miss), SF 77% over ARI (hit), BUF 76% over LAC (hit).
Season to date
Through September 28: 28-19 (59.6%) on graded regular-season picks since September 1, Brier score 0.234. Picks at 60% or better went 17-9.
How it landed
16 games, the model went 9-7.
| Date | Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 | ATL at GB | GB | 64% | 55% | 68% | ATL 35-14 | Miss |
| September 27 | SEA at WSH | SEA | 77% | 77% | 77% | WSH 33-31 | Miss |
| September 27 | ARI at SF | SF | 77% | 77% | 77% | SF 36-30 | Hit |
| September 27 | LAC at BUF | BUF | 76% | 78% | 73% | BUF 24-16 | Hit |
| September 27 | NYJ at DET | DET | 73% | 73% | 72% | DET 31-24 | Hit |
| September 27 | KC at MIA | KC | 68% | 61% | 81% | KC 24-10 | Hit |
| September 27 | HOU at IND | HOU | 59% | 62% | 53% | IND 19-17 | Miss |
| September 27 | BAL at DAL | BAL | 57% | 56% | 59% | BAL 34-31 | Hit |
| September 27 | LV at NO | NO | 57% | 53% | 64% | LV 35-27 | Miss |
| September 27 | TEN at NYG | NYG | 57% | 62% | 54% | NYG 12-7 | Hit |
| September 27 | CIN at PIT | CIN | 56% | 53% | 62% | PIT 30-27 | Miss |
| September 27 | MIN at TB | MIN | 56% | 68% | 51% | MIN 23-16 | Hit |
| September 27 | NE at JAX | JAX | 55% | 54% | 58% | JAX 35-6 | Hit |
| September 27 | CAR at CLE | CLE | 55% | 60% | 45% | CLE 21-18 | Hit |
| September 27 | LAR at DEN | LAR | 53% | 52% | 54% | DEN 30-26 | Miss |
| September 28 | PHI at CHI | PHI | 60% | 52% | 64% | CHI 27-7 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split: CAR at CLE: the model took CLE (60%), the market CAR; the served pick was CLE and the pick hit. KC over MIA: model 61%, market 81%, a 20-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over TB: model 68%, market 51%, a 17-point gap; the pick hit. GB over ATL: model 55%, market 68%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over CHI: model 52%, market 64%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed. NO over LV: model 53%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls: SEA 77% over WSH (miss), SF 77% over ARI (hit), BUF 76% over LAC (hit).
Season to date through September 28: 28-19 (59.6%), Brier 0.234; picks at 60% or better are 17-9.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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