NFL2026-10-29Panthers vs Packers Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 8 Picks, Props and Start/Sit
By Verdexed Analytics
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, Thursday, October 29, 8:15 PM ET at Lambeau Field. Forecast: clear, 50F, wind 5 mph. The model makes GB the more likely winner at 62%; the market has GB at 63%. The line is GB -3.5, total 46.5. Everything below comes from the model's own numbers, refreshed through the day; the card legs lock at kickoff.
The pick
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB | Play | GB | 62% | -192 | 63% | -1 |
The model has GB at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: epa per play (+15.2 points), point margin (+2.1 points), turnovers (+2.1 points). The case against is offense (-3.5 points). Injuries (GB without Franklin, Parsons; Golden, Wyatt day-to-day; CAR without Phillips): -2.3 points against GB. The line is GB -3.5, total 46.5.
| CAR | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 1 win |
Quarterbacks and who is out
CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Damien Lewis, Jaelan Phillips, Taylor Moton, Torricelli Simpkins III. GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Jacob Monk, Micah Parsons, Sean Rhyan, Travis Glover, Zaire Franklin. Crew: Scott Novak has been tough on CAR (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games). Crew: Scott Novak has been friendly to GB (+0.2 flags a game versus its norm, 5-1 in 6 games). Thursday is a short week for both teams; inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the number is refreshed when they do.
The matchups on the play-by-play
This season's numbers from every snap (CAR 6 games, GB 7), with the league rank in brackets (1st is best for that side of the ball). Edge is the defence's rank minus the offence's: positive favours the offence. EPA per play is what the model uses: it is the one play-by-play number that improved the forecast when tested season by season.
When Panthers have the ball
| Stat | CAR offence | GB defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 (9th) | -0.06 (4th) | -5 |
| Success rate | 43.6% (15th) | 45.0% (23rd) | +8 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% (9th) | 5.0% (3rd) | -6 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.11 (14th) | -0.03 (5th) | -9 |
| EPA per rush | -0.03 (11th) | -0.09 (13th) | +2 |
| Third-down conversion | 42.3% (13th) | 46.7% (27th) | +14 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2% (11th) | 68.0% (22nd) | +11 |
| Sack rate | 6.6% (20th) | 5.8% (19th) | -1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.0 (13th) | 1.9 (1st) | -12 |
| Completion % over expected | +0.5 (16th) | -0.8 (12th) | -4 |
When Packers have the ball
| Stat | GB offence | CAR defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00 (16th) | +0.02 (20th) | +4 |
| Success rate | 39.2% (28th) | 44.0% (21st) | -7 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.7% (5th) | 6.0% (5th) | +0 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.12 (12th) | +0.04 (14th) | +2 |
| EPA per rush | -0.27 (32nd) | +0.01 (30th) | -2 |
| Third-down conversion | 35.6% (28th) | 45.7% (25th) | -3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.2% (30th) | 76.5% (28th) | -2 |
| Sack rate | 4.9% (9th) | 4.8% (23rd) | +14 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.1 (15th) | 1.5 (9th) | -6 |
| Completion % over expected | -3.1 (27th) | -4.6 (3rd) | -24 |
How they play
Charted tendencies from FTN this season. These describe each team's system; matched against each other they did not improve the forecast when tested, so they are context here, not part of the number.
| Tendency | CAR | GB | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expected, points above the league (offence) | +5.9 | +5.4 | 0.0 |
| Play action on dropbacks (offence) | 27% | 19% | 23% |
| Motion at the snap (offence) | 55% | 62% | 59% |
| Blitz rate (defence) | 37% | 33% | 32% |
| Eight or more in the box on runs (defence) | 3% | 4% | 9% |
Player props
On the Model Card (the half-point line where the model gives the over at least 65%):
| Player | Call | Team | Prop | Our projection | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | Lean | GB | Over 254.5 passing yards | 292.3 | 65% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Lean | CAR | Over 4.5 receptions | 5.6 | 66% |
Every player line: the over is a play at the first number or lower, the under at the second or higher (where our distribution gives that side 57%).
| Player | Team | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | passing yards | 292.3 | 270.5 or lower | 299.5 or higher |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | receptions | 5.6 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | receiving yards | 77.7 | 64.5 or lower | 78.5 or higher |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | rushing yards | 64.5 | 54.5 or lower | 65.5 or higher |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | receptions | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Bryce Young | CAR | passing yards | 231.1 | 213.5 or lower | 237.5 or higher |
| Christian Watson | GB | receptions | 4.4 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Christian Watson | GB | receiving yards | 71.7 | 59.5 or lower | 72.5 or higher |
| Matthew Golden | GB | receptions | 4.9 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Matthew Golden | GB | receiving yards | 68.7 | 56.5 or lower | 69.5 or higher |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | rushing yards | 65.1 | 55.5 or lower | 66.5 or higher |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | receptions | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | receptions | 5 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | receiving yards | 62.4 | 51.5 or lower | 63.5 or higher |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | receptions | 4.4 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | receiving yards | 55.9 | 46.5 or lower | 56.5 or higher |
| Savion Williams | GB | receptions | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Savion Williams | GB | receiving yards | 31.5 | 25.5 or lower | 32.5 or higher |
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | 0.65 | 48% | +109 | +120 |
| Christian Watson | GB | 0.51 | 40% | +150 | +163 |
| Matthew Golden | GB | 0.45 | 36% | +176 | +191 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 0.41 | 34% | +198 | +213 |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 0.35 | 30% | +239 | +257 |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | 0.27 | 24% | +322 | +344 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
Start or sit
This week's PPR projections from the weekly board, with the call by positional rank across the whole week. Players ruled out are left off.
| Player | Call | Pos | Team | Proj | Range | Rank this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | Flex | QB | GB | 17.9 | 9.8 to 28.6 | QB14 |
| Christian Watson | Start | WR | GB | 16.5 | 9.1 to 26.3 | WR10 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Start | WR | CAR | 16.0 | 8.8 to 25.6 | WR12 |
| Josh Jacobs | Start | RB | GB | 16.0 | 8.8 to 25.6 | RB13 |
| Matthew Golden | Start if active | WR | GB | 15.4 | 8.5 to 24.6 | WR14 |
| Chuba Hubbard | Start | RB | CAR | 15.1 | 8.3 to 24.2 | RB14 |
| Bryce Young | Sit | QB | CAR | 14.6 | 8.0 to 23.3 | QB20 |
| Jalen Coker | Start | WR | CAR | 13.6 | 7.5 to 21.7 | WR20 |
| Tucker Kraft | Start | TE | GB | 12.9 | 7.1 to 20.7 | TE5 |
| Savion Williams | Flex | WR | GB | 10.4 | 5.7 to 16.7 | WR39 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | Flex | RB | GB | 10.0 | 5.5 to 16.0 | RB32 |
| Darren Waller | Sit | TE | CAR | 7.3 | 4.0 to 11.7 | TE27 |
| GB D/ST | Start | DST | GB | 7.3 | - | DST8 |
| Tommy Tremble | Sit | TE | CAR | 5.9 | 3.2 to 9.4 | TE35 |
The props ticket
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Tetairoa McMillan over 4.5 receptions; Jordan Love over 254.5 passing yards | +133 (fair) | 43% | +133 |
The props card as one ticket, at fair odds (props carry no posted price here). This piece prints no same-game ticket that pairs a side with its own quarterback's passing over: those legs pull against each other.
The record
Graded regular-season NFL picks since 2026-09-01: 63 of 105 (60.0%), Brier score 0.234. Every pick, every voided pick with its reason and the hit rate by confidence band are on the NFL accuracy page; the live card is on the Model Cards page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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