Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence Close In on Josh Allen: The MVP and Rookie of the Year Races After Four Weeks

Josh Allen is still the NFL MVP favorite heading into Week 5, but his cushion is the thinnest it has been all season. DraftKings has Allen at +270 and Brock Purdy at +330, with Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence tied at +650. Purdy has shortened dramatically from around +900, Lawrence has fallen from +1900 since Week 2, and Lamar Jackson has drifted from +800 to +1000 at DraftKings as his ankle injury threatens his Sunday night start in Atlanta.

Award markets after four weeks are mostly a referendum on two things: team record and narrative. Both have shifted this month, and the Week 5 schedule gives three of the top four candidates a chance to separate. Here is where each contender stands and how we would approach the board.

The top of the board

Prices vary by book. Sportsbetting Dime has listed Allen as short as +260 at DraftKings, and FanDuel's numbers have run slightly different, so shop before betting.

Brock Purdy has the best case right now

Purdy's numbers are the strongest in the league. Through four games he has 1,007 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception, a 69.9 percent completion rate and an NFL-best 126.2 passer rating. He has added 122 rushing yards and a touchdown, and the 49ers' offensive line has not allowed a sack. One analysis put his EPA per dropback at the highest by any quarterback through four games since Tom Brady in 2007, and ESPN's Bill Barnwell named him the league's best player through the first month.

He also checks the team box at 4-0, with wins over the Rams, Dolphins, Cardinals and Broncos. The concern is Sunday. San Francisco is a road underdog in Seattle, and the Seahawks are the defending champions. A strong game there would likely move Purdy to the top of the market. A loss would not sink him, but it would stall the momentum that has driven his price down.

Josh Allen is still the default

Allen's case rests on his track record and the voters' familiarity with him. Buffalo lost for the first time in Week 4, a 29-26 defeat to New England sealed by Allen's late interception, and he ran five times for just four yards in that game. That fueled speculation about a knee he took a hit on in Week 3, but Allen denied the injury was limiting him and was a full participant in practice Thursday.

Through three games Allen had five passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns, and the rushing scores are the part of his profile that separates him. If the knee is truly fine, his production should look like the Allen voters expect. The Bills are underdogs at the Rams on Monday night, which is a rare spot for Buffalo and a high-visibility stage for a statement game.

The value is in the middle tier

Trevor Lawrence is the biggest riser on the board. The Jaguars are 3-1, and Lawrence has eight touchdown passes against two interceptions, including a four-touchdown opener against Cleveland and three more against New England. His passer rating sits around 111 through four games. The concern is volume: he has not thrown for more than 245 yards in a game, and MVP voters have historically rewarded big passing totals. A London win over the Eagles would keep his price falling.

Patrick Mahomes has quietly pushed the Chiefs to 4-0 with modest box scores, including 225 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 4 win over the Raiders. Kansas City is on bye in Week 5, so his price is unlikely to move this weekend unless the players ahead of him stumble. His pedigree keeps him on the short list all season.

Lamar Jackson is the one to avoid for now. He missed the second half of Week 4 with an ankle injury, is listed as questionable for Sunday night, and oddsmakers are reportedly pricing the game as if he will not play. Missed starts are hard to overcome in this award.

The Offensive Rookie of the Year race

Jeremiyah Love remains the favorite. Sportsbook Review's October 6 update listed the Cardinals running back at +150, and BetMGM had him as short as +135 after opening at +300. Love has been a centerpiece of Mike LaFleur's offense in Arizona, and he faces the Lions on Sunday.

The real movement came behind him. Titans receiver Carnell Tate caught nine passes for 145 yards against Baltimore and saw his odds jump from +1050 to around +360. Browns receiver Denzel Boston moved from +750 to +450 at BetMGM. KC Concepcion sits in the next tier at roughly +1000 to +1100.

Love is a fair favorite, but a running back on a 1-3 team is vulnerable if the touchdowns dry up. Tate, a receiver who has already shown a 145-yard ceiling, has a path to the kind of counting stats that voters notice, and his price still reflects some doubt.

The Verdexed take

At current prices, we prefer Purdy to Allen. Purdy has the better efficiency profile, an unbeaten team and a protection unit that has kept him clean, and his market is still catching up to his production. Allen's price is built partly on reputation, and his rushing role, the trait that drives his MVP case, showed signs of slipping in Week 4.

Our favorite longer shot is Lawrence at +650, though we would wait until after London. If the Jaguars beat the Eagles, his price likely shortens. If they lose, a better number will appear. In the rookie market, Tate is our lean over Love at the current gap.

For game-level calls on Sunday's MVP showcase games, Verdexed's game-by-game probabilities are at /nfl/predictions, and the weekly picks piece is at /blog/nfl-week-5-picks-2026.

What's next

Week 5 is a pivotal stretch for the market. Purdy plays in Seattle, Lawrence faces the Eagles in London, and Allen closes the week at the Rams on Monday night. By Tuesday, the board could look very different.

Actionable takeaway: favor Purdy over Allen at current prices, monitor Lawrence until after his London game, steer clear of Jackson while his ankle is unresolved, and lean Tate over Love in Offensive Rookie of the Year. If you place futures, only bet where it is legal for you and you are of legal betting age in your jurisdiction.