NFL2026-11-12Commanders vs Giants Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 10 Picks, Props and Start/Sit
By Verdexed Analytics
Washington Commanders at New York Giants, Thursday, November 12, 8:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium. Forecast: rain, 51F, wind 13 mph. The model makes NYG the more likely winner at 56%; the market has NYG at 55%. The line is NYG -2.5, total 40.5. Everything below comes from the model's own numbers, refreshed through the day; the card legs lock at kickoff.
The pick
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at NYG | Lean | NYG | 56% | -135 | 55% | +0 |
The model has NYG at 56% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: EPA per play (+7.2 points), point margin (+6.2 points), motivation (+3.1 points). The case against is venue (-2.8 points). Injuries (NYG without Skattebo, Hood, Tracy; Harrison day-to-day; WSH without Croskey-Merritt, Payne): -2.8 points against NYG. The line is NYG -2.5, total 40.5.
| WSH | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5-1 | 5-2-1 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -3.8 | +1.2 |
| Home / road | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
Quarterbacks and who is out
WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Treylon Burks. NYG starter: J.J. McCarthy. NYG out: Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Colton Hood. Crew: Brad Rogers has been tough on NYG (0-5 in 5 games with this referee, a win rate 21 points below its norm under others). Thursday is a short week for both teams; inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the number is refreshed when they do.
The matchups on the play-by-play
This season's numbers from every snap (WSH 8 games, NYG 8), with the league rank in brackets (1st is best for that side of the ball). Edge is the defence's rank minus the offence's: positive favours the offence. EPA per play is what the model uses: it is the one play-by-play number that improved the forecast when tested season by season.
When Commanders have the ball
| Stat | WSH offence | NYG defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 (20th) | -0.03 (11th) | -9 |
| Success rate | 40.9% (25th) | 40.5% (7th) | -18 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.1% (22nd) | 7.1% (13th) | -9 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.03 (19th) | +0.01 (13th) | -6 |
| EPA per rush | -0.13 (23rd) | -0.09 (14th) | -9 |
| Third-down conversion | 31.1% (32nd) | 38.0% (12th) | -20 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.4% (23rd) | 78.9% (32nd) | +9 |
| Sack rate | 6.4% (20th) | 5.5% (19th) | -1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.6 (3rd) | 1.4 (15th) | +12 |
| Completion % over expected | +2.3 (8th) | -2.5 (6th) | -2 |
When Giants have the ball
| Stat | NYG offence | WSH defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 (15th) | +0.02 (20th) | +5 |
| Success rate | 40.7% (27th) | 45.9% (26th) | -1 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.1% (21st) | 6.2% (5th) | -16 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.08 (16th) | +0.07 (19th) | +3 |
| EPA per rush | -0.11 (19th) | -0.06 (23rd) | +4 |
| Third-down conversion | 41.8% (13th) | 41.3% (18th) | +5 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.2% (6th) | 75.0% (31st) | +25 |
| Sack rate | 8.9% (27th) | 5.1% (24th) | -3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.4 (20th) | 1.5 (13th) | -7 |
| Completion % over expected | -1.2 (24th) | +2.9 (24th) | +0 |
How they play
Charted tendencies from FTN this season. These describe each team's system; matched against each other they did not improve the forecast when tested, so they are context here, not part of the number.
| Tendency | WSH | NYG | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expected, points above the league (offence) | +1.4 | -3.0 | 0.0 |
| Play action on dropbacks (offence) | 20% | 21% | 23% |
| Motion at the snap (offence) | 53% | 48% | 59% |
| Blitz rate (defence) | 43% | 40% | 32% |
| Eight or more in the box on runs (defence) | 5% | 14% | 8% |
Player props
On the Model Card (the half-point line where the model gives the over at least 65%):
| Player | Call | Team | Prop | Our projection | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | Lean | WSH | Over 176.5 passing yards | 203.6 | 66% |
| Malik Nabers | Play | NYG | Over 4.5 receptions | 6.3 | 75% |
Every player line: the over is a play at the first number or lower, the under at the second or higher (where our distribution gives that side 57%).
| Player | Team | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | WSH | passing yards | 203.6 | 188.5 or lower | 208.5 or higher |
| Jayden Daniels | WSH | rushing yards | 40.7 | 29.5 or lower | 39.5 or higher |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | receptions | 6.3 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | receiving yards | 79.5 | 66.5 or lower | 80.5 or higher |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | receptions | 6.2 | 5.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | receiving yards | 64.6 | 53.5 or lower | 65.5 or higher |
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | passing yards | 195.3 | 180.5 or lower | 200.5 or higher |
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | rushing yards | 15.2 | 10.5 or lower | 15.5 or higher |
| Rachaad White | WSH | rushing yards | 47 | 39.5 or lower | 48.5 or higher |
| Rachaad White | WSH | receptions | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Stefon Diggs | WSH | receptions | 4.1 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Stefon Diggs | WSH | receiving yards | 46.5 | 38.5 or lower | 47.5 or higher |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | rushing yards | 38.6 | 32.5 or lower | 39.5 or higher |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | receptions | 1.8 | 0.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Malachi Fields | NYG | receptions | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Malachi Fields | NYG | receiving yards | 39.2 | 32.5 or lower | 39.5 or higher |
| Chig Okonkwo | WSH | receptions | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Chig Okonkwo | WSH | receiving yards | 32.6 | 26.5 or lower | 33.5 or higher |
| Antonio Williams | WSH | receptions | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Antonio Williams | WSH | receiving yards | 35.9 | 29.5 or lower | 36.5 or higher |
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | 0.49 | 39% | +158 | +172 |
| Devin Singletary | NYG | 0.48 | 38% | +162 | +176 |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 0.42 | 34% | +192 | +207 |
| Rachaad White | WSH | 0.42 | 34% | +192 | +207 |
| Stefon Diggs | WSH | 0.38 | 32% | +216 | +233 |
| Jayden Daniels | WSH | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| Chig Okonkwo | WSH | 0.24 | 21% | +369 | +394 |
| Malachi Fields | NYG | 0.21 | 19% | +429 | +457 |
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | 0.20 | 18% | +452 | +482 |
Start or sit
This week's PPR projections from the weekly board, with the call by positional rank across the whole week. Players ruled out are left off.
| Player | Call | Pos | Team | Proj | Range | Rank this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | Must start | WR | NYG | 18.3 | 10.1 to 29.3 | WR7 |
| Jayden Daniels | Start | QB | WSH | 17.1 | 9.4 to 27.3 | QB12 |
| J.J. McCarthy | Questionable | QB | NYG | 13.8 | 7.6 to 22.1 | QB22 |
| Isaiah Likely | Start | TE | NYG | 13.7 | 7.5 to 21.9 | TE4 |
| Rachaad White | Start | RB | WSH | 10.7 | 5.9 to 17.1 | RB24 |
| Stefon Diggs | Flex | WR | WSH | 10.0 | 5.5 to 16.1 | WR40 |
| Devin Singletary | Flex | RB | NYG | 9.9 | 5.4 to 15.8 | RB27 |
| NYG D/ST | Start | DST | NYG | 7.9 | - | DST6 |
| Antonio Williams | Sit | WR | WSH | 7.4 | 4.1 to 11.8 | WR59 |
| Chig Okonkwo | Sit | TE | WSH | 7.1 | 3.9 to 11.3 | TE26 |
| Malachi Fields | Sit | WR | NYG | 6.6 | 3.6 to 10.5 | WR69 |
| WSH D/ST | Flex | DST | WSH | 6.6 | - | DST15 |
| Darnell Mooney | Sit | WR | NYG | 6.5 | 3.6 to 10.4 | WR70 |
| Austin Ekeler | Sit | RB | WSH | 5.3 | 4.3 to 12.4 | RB47 |
The props ticket
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Malik Nabers over 4.5 receptions; Jayden Daniels over 176.5 passing yards | +102 (fair) | 49% | +102 |
The props card as one ticket, at fair odds (props carry no posted price here). This piece prints no same-game ticket that pairs a side with its own quarterback's passing over: those legs pull against each other.
The record
Graded regular-season NFL picks since 2026-09-01: 86 of 134 (64.2%), Brier score 0.216. Every pick, every voided pick with its reason and the hit rate by confidence band are on the NFL accuracy page; the live card is on the Model Cards page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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