NFL2026-10-08Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction: Thursday Night Football Week 5 Picks, Props and Start/Sit
By Verdexed Analytics
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, Thursday, October 8, 8:15 PM ET at AT&T Stadium. Played indoors. The model makes DAL the more likely winner at 72%; the market has DAL at 80%. The line is DAL -9.5, total 48.5. Everything below comes from the model's own numbers, refreshed through the day; the card legs lock at kickoff.
The pick
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL | Lock | DAL | 72% | -500 | 80% | -8 |
The model has DAL at 72% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: offense (+6.8 points), quarterback (+4.3 points), point margin (+4.1 points). The case against is EPA per play (-4.0 points). The line is DAL -9.5, total 48.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market: the market is firmer on DAL than we are, so the price is a little rich on our numbers.
| TB | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -5.0 | +2.5 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Last five | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 1 win |
Quarterbacks and who is out
TB starter: Jalon Daniels. TB out: Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield Jr., Benjamin Morrison, SirVocea Dennis. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown, Drew Shelton, Jalen Thompson, Jonathan Bullard. Thursday is a short week for both teams; inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff, and the number is refreshed when they do.
The matchups on the play-by-play
This season's numbers from every snap (TB 4 games, DAL 4), with the league rank in brackets (1st is best for that side of the ball). Edge is the defence's rank minus the offence's: positive favours the offence. EPA per play is what the model uses: it is the one play-by-play number that improved the forecast when tested season by season.
When Buccaneers have the ball
| Stat | TB offence | DAL defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.15 (31st) | +0.20 (32nd) | +1 |
| Success rate | 38.7% (28th) | 52.5% (32nd) | +4 |
| Explosive play rate | 5.5% (28th) | 10.0% (30th) | +2 |
| EPA per dropback | -0.21 (32nd) | +0.44 (32nd) | +0 |
| EPA per rush | -0.04 (13th) | -0.08 (16th) | +3 |
| Third-down conversion | 38.2% (20th) | 54.8% (32nd) | +12 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.7% (31st) | 73.3% (27th) | -4 |
| Sack rate | 10.1% (32nd) | 3.1% (29th) | -3 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.2 (31st) | 0.5 (29th) | -2 |
| Completion % over expected | -0.3 (22nd) | +10.4 (31st) | +9 |
When Cowboys have the ball
| Stat | DAL offence | TB defence allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 (6th) | -0.06 (6th) | +0 |
| Success rate | 47.8% (8th) | 40.1% (6th) | -2 |
| Explosive play rate | 5.2% (29th) | 6.3% (8th) | -21 |
| EPA per dropback | +0.26 (5th) | +0.04 (14th) | +9 |
| EPA per rush | -0.03 (10th) | -0.22 (3rd) | -7 |
| Third-down conversion | 53.1% (3rd) | 34.6% (6th) | +3 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 81.2% (3rd) | 45.5% (6th) | +3 |
| Sack rate | 3.6% (6th) | 4.4% (25th) | +19 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.5 (4th) | 1.0 (22nd) | +18 |
| Completion % over expected | +5.4 (7th) | +3.9 (26th) | +19 |
How they play
Charted tendencies from FTN this season. These describe each team's system; matched against each other they did not improve the forecast when tested, so they are context here, not part of the number.
| Tendency | TB | DAL | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expected, points above the league (offence) | 0.0 | +5.9 | 0.0 |
| Play action on dropbacks (offence) | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| Motion at the snap (offence) | 70% | 55% | 58% |
| Blitz rate (defence) | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Eight or more in the box on runs (defence) | 24% | 7% | 9% |
Player props
On the Model Card (the half-point line where the model gives the over at least 65%):
| Player | Call | Team | Prop | Our projection | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Lean | DAL | Over 296.5 passing yards | 340.8 | 65% |
| Javonte Williams | Lean | DAL | Over 60.5 rushing yards | 78.5 | 66% |
Every player line: the over is a play at the first number or lower, the under at the second or higher (where our distribution gives that side 57%).
| Player | Team | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | passing yards | 340.8 | 315.5 or lower | 349.5 or higher |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | rushing yards | 16.1 | 11.5 or lower | 15.5 or higher |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | rushing yards | 78.5 | 66.5 or lower | 79.5 or higher |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | receptions | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | passing yards | 193.8 | 178.5 or lower | 198.5 or higher |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | rushing yards | 46.8 | 33.5 or lower | 45.5 or higher |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | receptions | 5.8 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | receiving yards | 80.7 | 67.5 or lower | 81.5 or higher |
| Bucky Irving | TB | rushing yards | 58.7 | 49.5 or lower | 59.5 or higher |
| Bucky Irving | TB | receptions | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| George Pickens | DAL | receptions | 4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| George Pickens | DAL | receiving yards | 58.8 | 48.5 or lower | 59.5 or higher |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | receptions | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | receiving yards | 50.1 | 41.5 or lower | 50.5 or higher |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | receptions | 4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | receiving yards | 45.6 | 37.5 or lower | 46.5 or higher |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | receptions | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | receiving yards | 29.9 | 24.5 or lower | 30.5 or higher |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | receptions | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | receiving yards | 34.9 | 28.5 or lower | 35.5 or higher |
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 1.12 | 67% | -207 | -178 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 0.55 | 42% | +136 | +149 |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | 0.44 | 36% | +181 | +196 |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 0.43 | 35% | +187 | +202 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 0.33 | 28% | +256 | +275 |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | 0.25 | 22% | +352 | +376 |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | 0.24 | 21% | +369 | +394 |
| George Pickens | DAL | 0.22 | 20% | +408 | +434 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | 0.20 | 18% | +452 | +482 |
Start or sit
This week's PPR projections from the weekly board, with the call by positional rank across the whole week. Players ruled out are left off.
| Player | Call | Pos | Team | Proj | Range | Rank this week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | Must start | WR | DAL | 25.0 | 13.7 to 40.0 | WR1 |
| Dak Prescott | Must start | QB | DAL | 23.7 | 13.0 to 37.9 | QB2 |
| Jalon Daniels | Start | QB | TB | 19.4 | 10.7 to 31.0 | QB5 |
| Javonte Williams | Must start | RB | DAL | 18.0 | 9.9 to 28.9 | RB5 |
| George Pickens | Start | WR | DAL | 16.0 | 8.8 to 25.6 | WR13 |
| Bucky Irving | Start | RB | TB | 13.9 | 7.6 to 22.2 | RB18 |
| Emeka Egbuka | Start | WR | TB | 12.0 | 6.6 to 19.1 | WR30 |
| Jake Ferguson | Start | TE | DAL | 11.6 | 6.4 to 18.6 | TE8 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | Flex | WR | TB | 11.0 | 6.0 to 17.6 | WR44 |
| Ryan Flournoy | Sit | WR | DAL | 10.2 | 5.6 to 16.4 | WR51 |
| DAL D/ST | Must start | DST | DAL | 8.3 | - | DST3 |
| Cade Otton | Sit | TE | TB | 8.1 | 4.4 to 12.9 | TE23 |
| Ted Hurst III | Sit | WR | TB | 7.5 | 4.1 to 12.0 | WR73 |
| Kenny Gainwell | Sit | RB | TB | 7.2 | 3.9 to 11.4 | RB44 |
The props ticket
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Props | Javonte Williams over 60.5 rushing yards; Dak Prescott over 296.5 passing yards | +134 (fair) | 43% | +134 |
The props card as one ticket, at fair odds (props carry no posted price here). This piece prints no same-game ticket that pairs a side with its own quarterback's passing over: those legs pull against each other.
The record
Graded regular-season NFL picks since 2026-09-01: 39 of 63 (61.9%), Brier score 0.227. Every pick, every voided pick with its reason and the hit rate by confidence band are on the NFL accuracy page; the live card is on the Model Cards page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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