NFL Week 4 Picks: BAL 80% and the Model's Call on All 16 Games

16 NFL games on the board for Week 4. The firmest call is BAL at 80% over TEN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 12. Season to date the model is 28-19 (59.6%) on graded picks, Brier 0.234.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

Where the model and the market disagree

CHI over NYJ: we make it 66%, the market 58%. The edge comes from point margin (+9.0 points), offense (+6.7 points).

NYG over ARI: we make it 58%, the market 49%. The edge comes from point margin (+4.3 points), recent form (+1.9 points).

PHI over LAR: we make it 57%, the market 46%. The edge comes from head to head (+2.6 points), venue (+1.9 points).

JAX over CIN: we make it 51%, the market 43%. The edge comes from point margin (+11.4 points), offense (+2.4 points).

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

PIT over CLE: we make it 50.3%, the market 57% (a 7-point gap).

BAL over TEN: we make it 80%, the market 84% (a 4-point gap).

MIN over MIA: we make it 80%, the market 84% (a 4-point gap).

BUF over NE: we make it 69%, the market 73% (a 3-point gap).

KC over LV: we make it 61%, the market 67% (a 6-point gap).

GB over TB: we make it 59%, the market 63% (a 4-point gap).

IND over WSH: we make it 53%, the market 62% (a 10-point gap).

NO over ATL: we make it 51%, the market 58% (a 7-point gap).

Game by game

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: PIT 50.3%

The model has PIT at 50.3% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: point margin (+5.8 points), offense (+3.9 points), pass rush (+1.5 points). The case against is quarterback (-4.0 points). The line is PIT -2.5, total 38.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

PIT starter: Aaron Rodgers. PIT out: Rico Dowdle, Gennings Dunker. CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Teven Jenkins, Tyson Campbell.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: BAL 80%

The model has BAL at 80% against a market price of 84%. What drives it: point margin (+7.6 points), offense (+5.7 points), quarterback (+2.3 points). The line is BAL -11.5, total 43.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Fernando Carmona. BAL starter: Lamar Jackson. BAL out: Ethan Pocic, Jovaughn Gwyn, Ronnie Stanley.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: MIN 80%

The model has MIN at 80% against a market price of 84%. What drives it: point margin (+8.6 points), offense (+3.0 points), recent form (+1.8 points). The case against is defense (-3.6 points). The line is MIN -10.5, total 38.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: De'Von Achane, Jaylen Wright, Caleb Douglas, Robert Beal Jr., Ronnie Harrison Jr.. MIN starter: Kyler Murray. MIN out: Josh Oliver, Brett Thorson, Charles Demmings, Nick Samac.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: SEA 77%

The model has SEA at 77% against a market price of 75%. What drives it: point margin (+9.0 points), offense (+5.0 points), quarterback (+1.6 points). The case against is defense (-3.0 points). The line is SEA -7.0, total 43.5.

LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, Charlie Kolar, Dalvin Tomlinson, Elijah Molden, Kayode Awosika. SEA starter: Sam Darnold. SEA out: Zach Charbonnet, Anthony Bradford, Brandon Pili, Julian Love, Terrion Arnold.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: BUF 69%

The model has BUF at 69% against a market price of 73%. What drives it: offense (+6.6 points), point margin (+3.9 points), defense (+3.7 points). The line is BUF -7.0, total 48.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: A.J. Brown, Eli Raridon, Brenden Schooler, Craig Woodson, Dell Pettus. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Ar'maj Reed-Adams, Jordan Hancock, T.J. Sanders.

New York Jets at Chicago Bears: CHI 66%

The model has CHI at 66% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: point margin (+9.0 points), offense (+6.7 points), quarterback (+3.2 points). The case against is head to head (-1.2 points). The line is CHI -3.0, total 43.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Kene Nwangwu, Adonai Mitchell, Arian Smith, Mason Taylor, David Onyemata. CHI starter: Tyson Bagent. CHI out: Caleb Williams, Anthony Johnson Jr., Jamree Kromah, Jayden Loving, Jordan McFadden.

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: DET 63%

The model has DET at 63% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: offense (+5.5 points), point margin (+3.6 points), defense (+2.4 points). The line is DET -3.5, total 50.5.

DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Avonte Maddox, Ben Bartch, Thomas Harper. CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Xavier Legette, Claudin Cherelus, Devin Lloyd, Jaycee Horn, Nick Scott.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: KC 61%

The model has KC at 61% against a market price of 67%. What drives it: point margin (+8.2 points), offense (+4.5 points), yards margin (+2.8 points). The case against is defense (-3.2 points). The line is KC -4.5, total 47.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Chamarri Conner, Josh Simmons. LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Aidan O'Connell, Jack Bech, Treydan Stukes.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: SF 60%

The model has SF at 60% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: point margin (+8.2 points), offense (+6.1 points), quarterback (+2.8 points). The case against is pass rush (-1.7 points). The line is SF -3.0, total 46.5.

DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: Jonah Coleman, Marvin Mims Jr., Jonathon Cooper. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Demarcus Robinson, C.J. West, James Thompson Jr., Nick Bosa.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: GB 59%

The model has GB at 59% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: recent form (+2.6 points), motivation (+1.3 points), pass rush (+1.2 points). The case against is head to head (-0.7 points). The line is GB -3.5, total 39.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Aaron Banks, Anthony Campbell, Micah Parsons. TB starter: Jalon Daniels. TB out: Baker Mayfield, Jalen McMillan, Josiah Trotter, Rueben Bain Jr..

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: NYG 58%

The model has NYG at 58% against a market price of 49%. What drives it: point margin (+4.3 points), recent form (+1.9 points), motivation (+1.4 points). The case against is defense (-4.0 points). The line is ARI -1.5, total 44.5. That is a 9-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Will Johnson. NYG starter: Jameis Winston. NYG out: Jaxson Dart, Brian Burns, Deonte Banks, Tyler Nubin.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: PHI 57%

The model has PHI at 57% against a market price of 46%. What drives it: head to head (+2.6 points), venue (+1.9 points), rest (+1.7 points). The case against is offense (-3.7 points). The line is LAR -2.5, total 46.5. That is an 11-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Ronnie Rivers, Puka Nacua, Terrance Ferguson, Jaylen Watson, Kamren Kinchens. PHI starter: Jalen Hurts. PHI out: Cole Payton, Tanner McKee, Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goedert, AJ Epenesa.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: HOU 56%

The model has HOU at 56% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: yards margin (+1.8 points), point margin (+1.0 points), head to head (+0.7 points). The case against is offense (-6.4 points). The line is HOU -2.5, total 47.5.

DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown, Jalen Thompson, Malik Hooker, P.J. Locke. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: Nico Collins, Ed Ingram, Henry To'oTo'o, Jadeveon Clowney, Jake Hummel.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: IND 53%

The model has IND at 53% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: point margin (+5.3 points), offense (+3.2 points), venue (+1.8 points). The case against is head to head (-1.3 points). The line is IND -3.5, total 47.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Alec Pierce, Ashton Dulin, Micheal Clemons. WSH starter: Marcus Mariota. WSH out: Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo, Frankie Luvu, Leo Chenal, Nick Cross.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: JAX 51%

The model has JAX at 51% against a market price of 43%. What drives it: point margin (+11.4 points), offense (+2.4 points), yards margin (+1.6 points). The case against is defense (-5.5 points). The line is CIN -2.5, total 51.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: Albert Regis, B.J. Green II. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Andrei Iosivas, Colbie Young, B.J. Hill.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: NO 51%

The model has NO at 51% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: offense (+3.1 points), quarterback (+3.1 points), third downs (+1.6 points). The case against is pass rush (-1.9 points). The line is NO -3.0, total 48.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr.. ATL out: James Pearce Jr., Samson Ebukam. NO starter: Tyler Shough. NO out: Travis Etienne Jr., Barion Brown, Brock Rechsteiner, Christen Miller, Kelvin Banks Jr..

Anytime touchdown list

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-01: 28 of 47 (59.6%), Brier score 0.234. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NFL accuracy page.

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