NFL Week 4 Picks: BAL 80% and the Model's Call on All 15 Games

15 NFL games on the board for Week 4. The firmest call is BAL at 80% over TEN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 9. Season to date the model is 28-20 (58.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.234.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

Where the model and the market disagree

SF over DEN: we make it 61%, the market 57%. The edge comes from point margin (+8.1 points), offense (+6.1 points).

JAX over CIN: we make it 52%, the market 44%. The edge comes from point margin (+11.3 points), offense (+2.3 points).

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

BAL over TEN: we make it 80%, the market 83% (a 3-point gap).

BUF over NE: we make it 69%, the market 73% (a 4-point gap).

KC over LV: we make it 60%, the market 66% (a 7-point gap).

IND over WSH: we make it 59%, the market 64% (a 6-point gap).

LAR over PHI: we make it 52%, the market 62% (a 10-point gap).

ARI over NYG: we make it 51%, the market 56% (a 5-point gap).

NO over ATL: we make it 51%, the market 55% (a 4-point gap).

Game by game

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: BAL 80%

The model has BAL at 80% against a market price of 83%. What drives it: point margin (+7.8 points), offense (+5.8 points), quarterback (+2.5 points). The line is BAL -11.5, total 42.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Fernando Carmona, Jackson Slater. BAL starter: Lamar Jackson. BAL out: Ethan Pocic, Jovaughn Gwyn, Trey Hendrickson. Crew: Shawn Hochuli has been friendly to BAL (-1.3 flags a game versus its norm, 3-1 in 4 games).

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: MIN 79%

The model has MIN at 79% against a market price of 81%. What drives it: point margin (+8.9 points), offense (+3.0 points), recent form (+1.9 points). The case against is defense (-3.7 points). The line is MIN -10.0, total 38.5.

MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: De'Von Achane, Caleb Douglas, Kenneth Grant, Robert Beal Jr., Storm Duck. MIN starter: Kyler Murray. MIN out: Justin Jefferson, Josh Oliver, Brett Thorson, Charles Demmings, Nick Samac.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: SEA 78%

The model has SEA at 78% against a market price of 76%. What drives it: point margin (+8.9 points), offense (+5.0 points), quarterback (+1.9 points). The case against is defense (-3.0 points). The line is SEA -7.0, total 42.5.

LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, Charlie Kolar, Dalvin Tomlinson, Kayode Awosika, Trey Pipkins III. SEA starter: Sam Darnold. SEA out: Jadarian Price, Zach Charbonnet, Anthony Bradford, Terrion Arnold.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: BUF 69%

The model has BUF at 69% against a market price of 73%. What drives it: offense (+6.6 points), point margin (+3.9 points), defense (+3.7 points). The line is BUF -7.0, total 49.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: A.J. Brown, Christian Barmore, Christian Gonzalez, Dell Pettus, Greg Van Roten. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Jordan Hancock, T.J. Sanders. Crew: Bill Vinovich has been friendly to BUF (-1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 4-1 in 5 games).

New York Jets at Chicago Bears: CHI 64%

The model has CHI at 64% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: point margin (+11.0 points), offense (+6.9 points), quarterback (+2.3 points). The case against is defense (-2.9 points). The line is CHI -3.5, total 43.5.

NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Arian Smith, Mason Taylor, David Onyemata. CHI starter: Tyson Bagent. CHI out: Caleb Williams, Anthony Johnson Jr., Braxton Jones, Cam Lewis, Kyler Gordon. Crew: Carl Cheffers has been tough on CHI (-1.0 flags a game versus its norm, 1-5 in 6 games).

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: DET 63%

The model has DET at 63% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: offense (+5.5 points), point margin (+3.6 points), quarterback (+3.0 points). The line is DET -3.5, total 50.5.

DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Avonte Maddox, Ben Bartch, Brian Branch, Cade Mays, Thomas Harper. CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Xavier Legette, Damien Lewis, Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: SF 61%

The model has SF at 61% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: point margin (+8.1 points), offense (+6.1 points), quarterback (+3.7 points). The case against is pass rush (-1.5 points). The line is SF -3.0, total 47.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: Jonah Coleman, Dondrea Tillman, Jonathon Cooper. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, James Thompson Jr., Mykel Williams, Nick Bosa.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: KC 60%

The model has KC at 60% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: point margin (+8.3 points), offense (+4.4 points), yards margin (+2.7 points). The case against is defense (-3.3 points). The line is KC -4.5, total 47.5. That is a 7-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Josh Simmons. LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Dont'e Thornton Jr., Jack Bech, Jackson Powers-Johnson.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: IND 59%

The model has IND at 59% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: point margin (+5.1 points), offense (+3.1 points), venue (+1.7 points). The case against is head to head (-1.3 points). The line is IND -4.5, total 46.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Alec Pierce, Keenan Allen, Micheal Clemons. WSH starter: Marcus Mariota. WSH out: Jayden Daniels, Rachaad White, Terry McLaurin, Leo Chenal, Nick Cross. Crew: Alan Eck has been friendly to WSH (-1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: GB 59%

The model has GB at 59% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: recent form (+2.6 points), quarterback (+2.4 points), pass rush (+1.4 points). The case against is head to head (-0.7 points). The line is GB -3.0, total 39.5.

GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Aaron Banks, Anthony Campbell, Jacob Monk. TB starter: Jalon Daniels. TB out: Baker Mayfield, Jalen McMillan, Ko Kieft, Benjamin Morrison, Rueben Bain Jr.. Crew: Alex Kemp has been friendly to GB (-2.4 flags a game versus its norm, 3-4 in 7 games).

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: HOU 56%

The model has HOU at 56% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: yards margin (+1.2 points), point margin (+1.0 points), pass rush (+0.9 points). The case against is offense (-6.5 points). The line is HOU -3.0, total 48.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Cobie Durant, DeMarvion Overshown, Jalen Thompson, Jonathan Bullard, P.J. Locke. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: British Brooks, Azeez Al-Shaair, M.J. Stewart, Mario Edwards Jr.. Crew: Brad Allen has been friendly to HOU (-1.6 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: LAR 52%

The model has LAR at 52% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: point margin (+6.4 points), offense (+5.8 points), yards margin (+2.7 points). The case against is head to head (-2.7 points). The line is LAR -3.5, total 42.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Ronnie Rivers, Terrance Ferguson, Aaron Donald, Jaylen Watson, Myles Garrett. PHI starter: Jalen Hurts. PHI out: DeVonta Smith, Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goedert, Chance Campbell, Fred Johnson.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: JAX 52%

The model has JAX at 52% against a market price of 44%. What drives it: point margin (+11.3 points), offense (+2.3 points), yards margin (+1.5 points). The case against is defense (-5.5 points). The line is CIN -2.5, total 51.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Colbie Young, Jalen Davis, Kyle Dugger.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: ARI 51%

The model has ARI at 51% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: defense (+4.2 points), quarterback (+3.2 points), venue (+2.6 points). The case against is point margin (-4.4 points). The line is ARI -2.5, total 44.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Will Johnson. NYG starter: Jameis Winston. NYG out: Jaxson Dart, Brian Burns. Crew: Shawn Smith has been friendly to ARI (-1.7 flags a game versus its norm, 1-3 in 4 games).

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: NO 51%

The model has NO at 51% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: offense (+3.0 points), third downs (+1.6 points), point margin (+1.5 points). The case against is venue (-1.8 points). The line is NO -2.5, total 47.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr.. ATL out: James Pearce Jr.. NO starter: Tyler Shough. NO out: Travis Etienne Jr., Brock Rechsteiner, Jordyn Tyson, Kelvin Banks Jr.. Crew: Land Clark has been tough on ATL (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-3 in 5 games).

Anytime touchdown list

Last week's board

16 games, the model went 9-7.

Where the model and the market split: CAR at CLE: the model took CLE (60%), the market CAR; the served pick was CLE and the pick hit. KC over MIA: model 61%, market 81%, a 20-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over TB: model 68%, market 51%, a 17-point gap; the pick hit. GB over ATL: model 55%, market 68%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over CHI: model 52%, market 64%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed. NO over LV: model 53%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick missed.

The firmest calls: SEA 77% over WSH (miss), SF 77% over ARI (hit), BUF 76% over LAC (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here. LV at NO: the pick was NO 57%, the card took LV at +164 (model alone 47% for LV, market 36%); the card had it. CIN at PIT: the pick was CIN 56%, the card took PIT at +154 (model alone 47% for PIT, market 38%); the card had it. PHI at CHI: the pick was PHI 60%, the card took CHI at +164 (model alone 48% for CHI, market 36%); the card had it.

Season to date through September 28: 28-19 (59.6%), Brier 0.234; picks at 60% or better are 17-9.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2026-09-01: 28 of 48 (58.3%), Brier score 0.234. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NFL accuracy page.

How it landed

16 games, the model went 11-5.

Where the model and the market split: IND at WSH: the model took WSH (58%), the market IND; the served pick was IND and the pick hit. ARI at NYG: the model took NYG (60%), the market ARI; the served pick was ARI and the pick missed. ATL at NO: the model took ATL (60%), the market NO; the served pick was ATL and the pick hit. JAX at CIN: the model took JAX (54%), the market CIN; the served pick was JAX and the pick hit. PIT at CLE: the model took CLE (53%), the market PIT; the served pick was PIT and the pick missed. CHI over NYJ: model 76%, market 62%, a 14-point gap; the pick hit.

The firmest calls: MIN 82% over MIA (hit), BAL 81% over TEN (hit), SEA 76% over LAC (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 6-3 on its 9 legs here.

Season to date through October 5: 39-24 (61.9%), Brier 0.227; picks at 60% or better are 22-11.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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