Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Ty Johnson Climbs, Jadarian Price Slides (Week of August 18)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the August 11 and August 18 ADP snapshots, Ty Johnson climbed 33.6 picks to an ADP of 149.7 while Jadarian Price slid 19.1 picks to 82.1. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**Ty Johnson (RB, BUF)**: ADP 183.3 to 149.7, up 33.6 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB45. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)**: ADP 107.3 to 91.9, up 15.4 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits QB3 for us, 7 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
**Emari Demercado (RB, KC)**: ADP 168.3 to 153.6, up 14.7 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB54, 3 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**James Conner (RB, ARI)**: ADP 176.5 to 163.0, up 13.5 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits RB53 for us, 5 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Fernando Mendoza (QB, LV)**: ADP 169.1 to 156.6, up 12.5 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at QB27, 4 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Kimani Vidal (RB, LAC)**: ADP 166.2 to 154.3, up 11.9 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB51.
**Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)**: ADP 143.2 to 131.7, up 11.5 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE12.
**Kaelon Black (RB, SF)**: ADP 163.2 to 151.7, up 11.5 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB76, 26 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**Jadarian Price (RB, SEA)**: ADP 63.0 to 82.1, down 19.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him RB31.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: ADP 144.4 to 162.4, down 18.0 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB93, 37 spots behind his market slot.
**Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF)**: ADP 95.5 to 110.8, down 15.3 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR49.
**Jaydon Blue (RB, DAL)**: ADP 153.1 to 167.5, down 14.4 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him RB80, 15 spots behind his market slot.
**T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)**: ADP 153.3 to 167.1, down 13.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE23.
**Kyle Monangai (RB, CHI)**: ADP 100.1 to 113.8, down 13.7 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB34 for us, 4 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Jaxson Dart (QB, NYG)**: ADP 101.6 to 114.5, down 12.9 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him QB17, 2 spots behind his market slot.
**Wan'Dale Robinson (WR, TEN)**: ADP 71.2 to 83.9, down 12.7 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR38 for us, 3 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB13 at ADP 104.0; our blend ranks him QB5. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB49 at ADP 151.4; our blend ranks him RB41. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Brian Robinson (RB, ATL)**: the market drafts him RB57 at ADP 162.7; our blend ranks him RB49. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Ray Davis (RB, BUF)**: the market drafts him RB63 at ADP 165.6; our blend ranks him RB55. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)**: the market drafts him QB10 at ADP 91.9; our blend ranks him QB3. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Dylan Sampson (RB, CLE)**: the market drafts him RB55 at ADP 160.8; our blend ranks him RB48. That is a 7 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: drafters take him RB46 at ADP 150.4; our blend has him RB88, 42 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Cyrus Allen (WR, KC)**: drafters take him WR73 at ADP 152.7; our blend has him WR114, 41 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Kaden Wetjen (WR, PIT)**: drafters take him WR88 at ADP 173.8; our blend has him WR127, 39 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: drafters take him RB56 at ADP 162.4; our blend has him RB93, 37 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL)**: drafters take him WR78 at ADP 162.4; our blend has him WR106, 28 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Zachariah Branch (WR, ATL)**: drafters take him WR85 at ADP 170.2; our blend has him WR113, 28 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Kaden Wetjen (WR, PIT)**: climbed from WR358 to WR127 on our board this week.
**Caleb Douglas (WR, MIA)**: climbed from WR246 to WR117 on our board this week.
**Jalen Tolbert (WR, MIA)**: climbed from WR140 to WR82 on our board this week.
**Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ)**: climbed from RB86 to RB52 on our board this week.
**Emari Demercado (RB, KC)**: climbed from RB74 to RB54 on our board this week.
**Jaydon Blue (RB, DAL)**: fell from RB54 to RB80 on our board this week.
**Keaton Mitchell (RB, LAC)**: fell from RB55 to RB73 on our board this week.
**Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL)**: fell from WR90 to WR106 on our board this week.
**Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)**: fell from RB62 to RB75 on our board this week.
**Tank Bigsby (RB, PHI)**: fell from RB50 to RB62 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.