Fantasy ADP Risers and Fallers: Oronde Gadsden Climbs, James Conner Slides (Week of August 11)
By Verdexed Analytics
The fantasy football market re-priced again this week. Between the August 4 and August 11 ADP snapshots, Oronde Gadsden climbed 23.5 picks to an ADP of 149.6 while James Conner slid 20.2 picks to 176.5. This is the weekly movement report from the Verdexed draft board: what drafters did over the last week, and where our projections agree with the crowd or push back against it.
Average draft position is the market's consensus, aggregated from real drafts, and it moves for real reasons: injuries, depth chart changes, camp reports, and simple herd momentum. A move of a few picks inside a week is genuine re-pricing, not noise. The Verdexed board blends our projection model with that market signal at weights that earned their keep in a published ten year backtest, so when the two disagree below, the gap is the story.
The market's risers
Players being drafted meaningfully earlier than a week ago, with our board's read on each move.
**Oronde Gadsden (TE, LAC)**: ADP 173.1 to 149.6, up 23.5 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE15.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: ADP 164.3 to 144.4, up 19.9 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB84, 39 spots behind where drafters are now taking him. He is a rookie, so the error bars stay wide.
**Daniel Jones (QB, IND)**: ADP 161.8 to 146.2, up 15.6 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at QB26, 5 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)**: ADP 164.6 to 151.9, up 12.7 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE16.
**Tank Dell (WR, HOU)**: ADP 156.7 to 147.8, up 8.9 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits WR62 for us, 3 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Rico Dowdle (RB, PIT)**: ADP 74.1 to 66.7, up 7.4 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB30, 2 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Jonathon Brooks (RB, CAR)**: ADP 117.2 to 110.0, up 7.2 picks on the week. We are cooler on the move: the board holds him at RB44, 6 spots behind where drafters are now taking him.
**Ray Davis (RB, BUF)**: ADP 164.2 to 157.1, up 7.1 picks on the week. Our board was ahead of this one: he already sits RB47 for us, 4 spots ahead of where the market drafts his position.
The market's fallers
Players sliding down draft boards, and whether we would catch the falling knife.
**James Conner (RB, ARI)**: ADP 156.3 to 176.5, down 20.2 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB59 for us, 6 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Darnell Mooney (WR, NYG)**: ADP 166.4 to 186.4, down 20.0 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR96, 8 spots behind his market slot.
**Christian Kirk (WR, SF)**: ADP 166.5 to 182.9, down 16.4 picks on the week. The board agrees with the fade and then some, ranking him WR103, 18 spots behind his market slot. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Travis Kelce (TE, KC)**: ADP 94.4 to 107.2, down 12.8 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him TE9.
**Jalen McMillan (WR, TB)**: ADP 139.7 to 150.8, down 11.1 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR65. Note the Questionable tag on the injury report.
**Isaac TeSlaa (WR, DET)**: ADP 163.4 to 173.3, down 9.9 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks WR72 for us, 8 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
**Jauan Jennings (WR, MIN)**: ADP 138.5 to 147.0, down 8.5 picks on the week. The board roughly agrees, slotting him WR63.
**Woody Marks (RB, HOU)**: ADP 140.2 to 148.2, down 8.0 picks on the week. Our board disagrees with the slide: he still ranks RB43 for us, 4 spots ahead of his market slot, which makes this dip a buying window.
Where the Verdexed board pushes back
Movement aside, these are this week's largest standing gaps between our blended ranks and the market's draft slots: the discounts we would target and the prices we would not pay.
**Jared Goff (QB, DET)**: the market drafts him QB14 at ADP 107.2; our blend ranks him QB4. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Brian Robinson (RB, ATL)**: the market drafts him RB63 at ADP 166.9; our blend ranks him RB53. That is a 10 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG)**: the market drafts him RB50 at ADP 155.6; our blend ranks him RB41. That is a 9 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Justice Hill (RB, BAL)**: the market drafts him RB59 at ADP 165.2; our blend ranks him RB51. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Tory Horton (WR, SEA)**: the market drafts him WR79 at ADP 169.4; our blend ranks him WR71. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Isaac TeSlaa (WR, DET)**: the market drafts him WR80 at ADP 173.3; our blend ranks him WR72. That is a 8 spot discount on a player our projections like more than his price.
**Cyrus Allen (WR, KC)**: drafters take him WR76 at ADP 163.7; our blend has him WR116, 40 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Jonah Coleman (RB, DEN)**: drafters take him RB45 at ADP 144.4; our blend has him RB84, 39 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Mike Washington Jr. (RB, LV)**: drafters take him RB53 at ADP 160.4; our blend has him RB91, 38 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Nicholas Singleton (RB, TEN)**: drafters take him RB57 at ADP 164.0; our blend has him RB93, 36 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Antonio Williams (WR, WAS)**: drafters take him WR72 at ADP 157.6; our blend has him WR104, 32 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
**Zachariah Branch (WR, ATL)**: drafters take him WR81 at ADP 173.4; our blend has him WR111, 30 spots later. Someone in your league will pay the sticker price. Let them.
Our board moved too
The board rebuilds every Tuesday from fresh projections, depth charts, and injury data, so our own ranks move as well. The largest changes this week:
**Cyrus Allen (WR, KC)**: climbed from WR351 to WR116 on our board this week.
**Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, BAL)**: climbed from WR238 to WR90 on our board this week.
**Nicholas Singleton (RB, TEN)**: climbed from RB172 to RB93 on our board this week.
**Tyquan Thornton (WR, KC)**: climbed from WR158 to WR107 on our board this week.
**AJ Dillon (RB, CAR)**: climbed from RB105 to RB80 on our board this week.
**Darnell Mooney (WR, NYG)**: fell from WR72 to WR96 on our board this week.
**Jake Tonges (TE, SF)**: fell from TE15 to TE34 on our board this week.
**Emari Demercado (RB, KC)**: fell from RB58 to RB74 on our board this week.
**Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, JAX)**: fell from RB62 to RB75 on our board this week.
**Christian Kirk (WR, SF)**: fell from WR90 to WR103 on our board this week. The Questionable designation is part of that math.
How to use this
The full board lives at the Verdexed draft board, free, with tiers, floor and ceiling bands, and value badges on every ranked player in PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring. It rebuilds weekly through draft season, and this movement report publishes after every rebuild. How the blend works, and the decade of receipts behind it, wins and losses both, is on the methodology page.
One honest caveat: ADP movement tells you what drafts will look like, not what the season will. Use the market's move to know when a player you want will actually be taken, and use the board's gaps to decide whether the price is worth paying.