NBA2026-11-14NBA Picks for November 14: MIN 85% Leads a 5-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
5 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-14. The firmest call is MIN at 85% over CHI; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 132-53 (71.4%) on graded picks, Brier 0.190.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at MIN | MIN | 85% | 87% | -1 | -930 | MIN -15.5 | 235.5 | MIN -930 |
| DEN at NO | DEN | 82% | 82% | 0 | -597 | DEN -12.5 | 235.5 | DEN -597 |
| DET at MIA | DET | 62% | 63% | -1 | -191 | DET -4.5 | 228.5 | DET -191 |
| BKN at MEM | MEM | 61% | 60% | +1 | -167 | MEM -3.5 | 228.5 | MEM -167 |
| DAL at CLE | CLE | 53% | 49% | +4 | -105 | DAL -1.5 | 231.5 | - |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
CLE over DAL: we make it 53%, the market 49%. The edge comes from venue (+8.6 points), head to head (+7.2 points).
Game by game
Chicago Bulls at Minnesota Timberwolves: MIN 85%
The model has MIN at 85% against a market price of 87%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.2 points), venue (+3.0 points), net rating (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-6.4 points). The line is MIN -15.5, total 235.5.
| CHI | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-9 | 9-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -13.4 | +13.4 |
| Home / road | 1-5 | 5-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W5 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
CHI out: Caleb Wilson. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | points | 32.9 | 29.5 or lower | 34.5 or higher |
| LaMelo Ball | rebounds | 4.8 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Ayo Dosunmu | points | 27.4 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Ayo Dosunmu | rebounds | 5.9 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Jaden McDaniels | points | 20.9 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Jaden McDaniels | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Jonathan Kuminga | points | 16.3 | 14.5 or lower | 17.5 or higher |
| Jonathan Kuminga | rebounds | 8.6 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Bones Hyland | points | 20.1 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Bones Hyland | rebounds | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: DEN 82%
The model has DEN at 82% against a market price of 82%. What drives it: injuries (NO without Murphy, Murray, Watford; McGowens doubtful; DEN without Strawther) (+8.0 points), head to head (+7.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 10 games in) (-6.3 points). The line is DEN -12.5, total 235.5.
| DEN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 | 4-9 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +1.2 | -9.2 |
| Home / road | 3-2 | 3-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head to head | 6 wins | 0 wins |
DEN out: Julian Strawther. NO out: Dejounte Murray, Trendon Watford, Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | points | 26.9 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Nikola Jokic | rebounds | 12.3 | 11.5 or lower | 13.5 or higher |
| Jamal Murray | points | 29.4 | 26.5 or lower | 30.5 or higher |
| Jamal Murray | rebounds | 5.2 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Jeremiah Fears | points | 21.6 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Jeremiah Fears | rebounds | 5.7 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Zion Williamson | points | 24.5 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Zion Williamson | rebounds | 5.6 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Saddiq Bey | points | 21.3 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Saddiq Bey | rebounds | 4.9 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat: DET 62%
The model has DET at 62% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: pace (+5.6 points), net rating (+5.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-10.7 points). The line is DET -4.5, total 228.5.
| DET | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 6-6 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +7.7 | -2.9 |
| Home / road | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W2 | W3 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | points | 29.8 | 27.5 or lower | 30.5 or higher |
| Cade Cunningham | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | points | 25 | 22.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | rebounds | 11.1 | 9.5 or lower | 12.5 or higher |
| Ausar Thompson | points | 12.8 | 11.5 or lower | 13.5 or higher |
| Ausar Thompson | rebounds | 11.1 | 9.5 or lower | 12.5 or higher |
| Daniss Jenkins | points | 17.8 | 15.5 or lower | 18.5 or higher |
| Daniss Jenkins | rebounds | 4.5 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Duncan Robinson | points | 22.8 | 20.5 or lower | 23.5 or higher |
| Duncan Robinson | assists | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies: MEM 61%
The model has MEM at 61% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.7 points), net rating (+4.9 points), defense (+1.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-7.8 points). The line is MEM -3.5, total 228.5.
| BKN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-8 | 8-4 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -5.1 | +8.1 |
| Home / road | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
MEM out: Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome | points | 25 | 22.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Ty Jerome | rebounds | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Michael Porter Jr. | points | 21.4 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Michael Porter Jr. | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Cameron Boozer | points | 14.2 | 12.5 or lower | 15.5 or higher |
| Cameron Boozer | rebounds | 9.5 | 8.5 or lower | 10.5 or higher |
| Julius Randle | points | 18.5 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| Julius Randle | rebounds | 5.8 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Cedric Coward | points | 13 | 11.5 or lower | 13.5 or higher |
| Cedric Coward | rebounds | 8.6 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers: CLE 53%
The model has CLE at 53% against a market price of 49%. What drives it: venue (+8.6 points), head to head (+7.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 13 and 12 games in) (+3.0 points). The case against is rest (-3.8 points). The line is DAL -1.5, total 231.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| DAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-5 | 6-7 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +1.0 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. CLE out: Nae'Qwan Tomlin, Sam Merrill.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | points | 26.9 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Cooper Flagg | rebounds | 8.7 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Donovan Mitchell | points | 24.5 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Donovan Mitchell | rebounds | 5.1 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Kyrie Irving | points | 22.8 | 20.5 or lower | 23.5 or higher |
| Kyrie Irving | rebounds | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| James Harden | points | 18.1 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| James Harden | rebounds | 4.4 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Evan Mobley | points | 14.9 | 13.5 or lower | 15.5 or higher |
| Evan Mobley | rebounds | 6.7 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
Yesterday's board
9 games, the model went 6-3. The market favourite went 6-3.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH at HOU | HOU | 88% | 86% | 89% | HOU 125-118 | Hit | HOU -1180 (hit) |
| GS at SA | SA | 84% | 82% | 84% | SA 123-85 | Hit | SA -670 (hit) |
| POR at SAC | POR | 77% | 66% | 79% | POR 120-107 | Hit | POR -468 (hit) |
| MIL at ORL | ORL | 74% | 70% | 75% | ORL 107-99 | Hit | ORL -395 (hit) |
| NY at IND | NY | 72% | 67% | 73% | IND 106-104 | Miss | NY -337 (miss) |
| ATL at CHI | ATL | 71% | 72% | 71% | CHI 125-117 | Miss | ATL -277 (miss) |
| OKC at LAC | OKC | 70% | 70% | 70% | LAC 113-112 | Miss | OKC -283 (miss) |
| MEM at NO | MEM | 55% | 55% | 55% | MEM 142-111 | Hit | - |
| CLE at MIA | MIA | 54% | 52% | 55% | MIA 133-121 | Hit | - |
Where the model and the market split: POR over SAC: model 66%, market 79%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. NY over IND: model 67%, market 73%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. ORL over MIL: model 70%, market 75%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: HOU 88% over UTAH (hit), SA 84% over GS (hit), POR 77% over SAC (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-3 on its 7 legs here.
Season to date through November 13: 132-53 (71.4%), Brier 0.190; market favourites 130-53 on the 183 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 102-29.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-14: 132 of 185 (71.4%), Brier score 0.190. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.