NBA Picks for November 7: OKC 81% Leads a 7-Game Board

7 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-07. The firmest call is OKC at 81% over WSH; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 94-40 (70.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.197.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Game by game

Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder: OKC 81%

The model has OKC at 81% against a market price of 81%. What drives it: head to head (+7.3 points), venue (+5.4 points), defense (+2.5 points). The case against is injuries (OKC without Holmgren, Williams, Wallace; Williams day-to-day; WSH without Champagnie, Watkins, Vukcevic; Davis day-to-day) (-3.1 points). The line is OKC -11.5, total 222.5.

WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Thomas Sorber.

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks: ATL 71%

The model has ATL at 71% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), head to head (+6.7 points), defense (+2.8 points). The case against is injuries (ATL without Johnson, Landale, Gueye; Newell day-to-day; BKN without Demin; Clowney, Sharpe day-to-day) (-4.5 points). The line is ATL -7.5, total 227.5.

BKN out: Egor Demin, Tyler Bilodeau. ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Jalen Johnson, Jock Landale, Mouhamed Gueye.

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns: HOU 68%

The model has HOU at 68% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: head to head (+10.9 points), net rating, last 10 (+9.0 points), record (+1.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 9 games in) (-13.9 points). The line is HOU -7.5, total 223.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: HOU is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

HOU out: Clint Capela, Steven Adams. PHX out: Mark Williams.

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers: DEN 67%

The model has DEN at 67% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: head to head (+8.5 points), shooting (eFG) (+4.6 points), venue (+4.0 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 7 games in) (-12.2 points). The line is DEN -7.5, total 229.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: DEN is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

DEN out: Julian Strawther. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton.

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers: SA 66%

The model has SA at 66% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: venue (+7.2 points), head to head (+6.3 points), injuries (POR without Morant, Sharpe, Krejci; SA without Harris) (+5.5 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.0 points). The line is SA -5.5, total 226.5.

SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. POR out: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci.

Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors: GS 64%

The model has GS at 64% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+9.1 points), venue (+6.0 points), head to head (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 8 games in) (-12.5 points). The line is GS -5.5, total 222.5.

ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers: NY 61%

The model has NY at 61% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: head to head (+7.3 points), rest (+3.8 points), injuries (CLE without Allen, Tyson; Merrill day-to-day; NY without Hart) (+3.0 points). The case against is venue (-8.4 points). The line is NY -4.5, total 224.5.

NY out: Josh Hart. CLE out: Jaylon Tyson.

Yesterday's board

9 games, the model went 8-1. The market favourite went 8-1.

Where the model and the market split: PHI at CLE: the model took CLE (53%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick missed. LAL over POR: model 70%, market 58%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. TOR over MIL: model 59%, market 69%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. OKC over MEM: model 68%, market 60%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. BOS over CHA: model 67%, market 73%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. DAL over UTAH: model 64%, market 71%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.

The firmest calls: SA 87% over SAC (hit), BOS 72% over CHA (hit), ATL 71% over WSH (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 7-0 on its 7 legs here.

Season to date through November 6: 94-40 (70.1%), Brier 0.197; market favourites 92-40 on the 132 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 69-20.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-07: 94 of 134 (70.1%), Brier score 0.197. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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