NBA2026-11-01NBA Picks for November 1: BOS 67% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-01. The firmest call is BOS at 67% over ORL; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 61-29 (67.8%) on graded picks, Brier 0.202.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at ORL | BOS | 67% | 70% | -3 | -270 | BOS -7.5 | 220.5 | BOS -270 |
| BKN at IND | IND | 63% | 60% | +3 | -170 | IND -3.5 | 231.5 | IND -170 |
| TOR at LAL | LAL | 58% | 57% | +1 | -148 | LAL -2.5 | 225.5 | LAL -148 |
| LAC at GS | GS | 55% | 55% | 0 | -135 | GS -2.5 | 222.5 | GS -135 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic: BOS 67%
The model has BOS at 67% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), injuries (ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; BOS without Carter, Robinson) (+5.4 points), head to head (+4.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 5 games in) (-14.9 points). The line is BOS -7.5, total 220.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: BOS is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.
| BOS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +9.2 | -8.6 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W4 | W1 |
| Last five | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
BOS out: Devin Carter, Mitchell Robinson. ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | points | 28.2 | 25.5 or lower | 29.5 or higher |
| Jayson Tatum | rebounds | 8.8 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Franz Wagner | points | 25.3 | 22.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Franz Wagner | rebounds | 7.5 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Paul George | points | 22.1 | 19.5 or lower | 23.5 or higher |
| Paul George | rebounds | 6.4 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | points | 17 | 15.5 or lower | 17.5 or higher |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | rebounds | 10.2 | 8.5 or lower | 11.5 or higher |
| Desmond Bane | points | 20 | 18.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Desmond Bane | rebounds | 4.4 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers: IND 63%
The model has IND at 63% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: head to head (+7.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.9 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) (+2.9 points). The case against is injuries (IND without Zubac, Sheppard, McConnell; Nesmith, Toppin day-to-day; BKN without Demin) (-4.8 points). The line is IND -3.5, total 231.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| BKN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 2-4 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -11.0 | -3.2 |
| Home / road | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Last five | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 1 win | 5 wins |
BKN out: Egor Demin, Mikel Brown Jr., Tyler Bilodeau. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | points | 24.7 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Julius Randle | rebounds | 8.5 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Michael Porter Jr. | points | 26 | 23.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Michael Porter Jr. | rebounds | 8.3 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Pascal Siakam | points | 26.2 | 23.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Pascal Siakam | rebounds | 8.7 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Andrew Nembhard | points | 21.9 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Andrew Nembhard | rebounds | 2.9 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Obi Toppin | points | 22.4 | 20.5 or lower | 23.5 or higher |
| Obi Toppin | rebounds | 8 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers: LAL 58%
The model has LAL at 58% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: head to head (+11.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) (+6.7 points), injuries (LAL without Thiero; Williams day-to-day; TOR without Leonard) (+5.0 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-6.5 points). The line is LAL -2.5, total 225.5.
| TOR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +10.6 | +5.2 |
| Home / road | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 0 wins | 6 wins |
TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle. LAL out: Adou Thiero.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | points | 34.5 | 31.5 or lower | 35.5 or higher |
| Luka Doncic | rebounds | 7.1 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Scottie Barnes | points | 25 | 22.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Scottie Barnes | rebounds | 8.2 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Austin Reaves | points | 23.3 | 21.5 or lower | 24.5 or higher |
| Austin Reaves | rebounds | 3.9 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| RJ Barrett | points | 23.1 | 20.5 or lower | 24.5 or higher |
| RJ Barrett | rebounds | 6.4 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Immanuel Quickley | points | 18.8 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| Immanuel Quickley | rebounds | 4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors: GS 55%
The model has GS at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 5 games in) (+7.2 points), venue (+6.1 points), streak (+3.6 points). The case against is injuries (GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Santos day-to-day; LAC without Strus, Miller, Beal) (-11.6 points). The line is GS -2.5, total 222.5.
| LAC | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -6.4 | +1.3 |
| Home / road | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W3 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head to head | 5 wins | 1 win |
LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus. GS out: Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | points | 24.9 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | rebounds | 10.1 | 8.5 or lower | 10.5 or higher |
| Darius Garland | points | 26.3 | 23.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Darius Garland | assists | 8.1 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Brandin Podziemski | points | 19.4 | 17.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Brandin Podziemski | rebounds | 6.6 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Brandon Ingram | points | 24.1 | 21.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Brandon Ingram | rebounds | 6.3 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| De'Anthony Melton | points | 17.9 | 16.5 or lower | 18.5 or higher |
| De'Anthony Melton | rebounds | 5.5 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
Yesterday's board
7 games, the model went 6-1. The market favourite went 6-1.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at SA | SA | 80% | 75% | 82% | SA 121-111 | Hit | SA -600 (hit) |
| SAC at MEM | MEM | 74% | 70% | 75% | MEM 136-105 | Hit | MEM -360 (hit) |
| CLE at MIL | CLE | 72% | 62% | 76% | CLE 136-111 | Hit | CLE -380 (hit) |
| POR at UTAH | POR | 68% | 53% | 74% | POR 112-90 | Hit | POR -265 (hit) |
| ATL at NO | ATL | 62% | 62% | 62% | NO 121-99 | Miss | ATL -198 (miss) |
| OKC at HOU | HOU | 54% | 49.6% | 56% | HOU 119-98 | Hit | - |
| PHI at CHA | PHI | 51% | 45% | 53% | PHI 109-104 | Hit | - |
Where the model and the market split: PHI at CHA: the model took CHA (55%), the market PHI; the served pick was PHI and the pick hit. OKC at HOU: the model took OKC (50.4%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick hit. POR over UTAH: model 53%, market 74%, a 21-point gap; the pick hit. CLE over MIL: model 62%, market 76%, a 14-point gap; the pick hit. SA over MIN: model 75%, market 82%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: SA 80% over MIN (hit), MEM 74% over SAC (hit), CLE 72% over MIL (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-1 on its 5 legs here.
Season to date through October 31: 61-29 (67.8%), Brier 0.202; market favourites 59-29 on the 88 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 43-14.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-01: 61 of 90 (67.8%), Brier score 0.202. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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