NBA2026-10-29NBA Picks for October 29: POR 70% Leads a 3-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
3 NBA games on the board for 2026-10-29. The firmest call is POR at 70% over MEM; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 47-23 (67.1%) on graded picks, Brier 0.201.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM at POR | POR | 70% | 71% | -2 | -290 | POR -7.5 | 232.5 | POR -278 |
| SAC at NO | NO | 67% | 68% | 0 | -238 | NO -5.5 | 236.5 | NO -230 |
| CLE at ATL | ATL | 51% | 51% | 0 | -115 | ATL -1.5 | 237.5 | ATL -115 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers: POR 70%
The model has POR at 70% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.9 points), head to head (+4.2 points), defense (+2.0 points). The case against is venue (-6.8 points). The line is POR -7.5, total 232.5.
| MEM | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-0 | 3-0 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +9.8 | +18.7 |
| Home / road | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W4 | W3 |
| Last five | 4-0 | 3-0 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
POR out: Chris Youngblood, Shaedon Sharpe.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | points | 27.1 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Deni Avdija | rebounds | 7.6 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Ja Morant | points | 23.5 | 21.5 or lower | 24.5 or higher |
| Ja Morant | rebounds | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Damian Lillard | points | 25.6 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Damian Lillard | rebounds | 4.9 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Jrue Holiday | points | 18.8 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| Jrue Holiday | rebounds | 5.4 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Ty Jerome | points | 23.8 | 21.5 or lower | 24.5 or higher |
| Ty Jerome | rebounds | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans: NO 67%
The model has NO at 67% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+2.9 points), star availability (+2.8 points), injuries (no without poole, missi; sac without murray, raynaud, cardwell) (+2.5 points). The case against is venue (-4.9 points). The line is NO -5.5, total 236.5.
| SAC | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -17.8 | -5.8 |
| Home / road | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Last five | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
SAC out: Ben Simmons, Dylan Cardwell, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud. NO out: Yves Missi.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | points | 23.9 | 21.5 or lower | 24.5 or higher |
| Domantas Sabonis | rebounds | 18.3 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| Zach LaVine | points | 26.6 | 24.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Zach LaVine | rebounds | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Precious Achiuwa | points | 18.1 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| Precious Achiuwa | rebounds | 9.9 | 8.5 or lower | 10.5 or higher |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | points | 24.3 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | rebounds | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Derik Queen | points | 15.7 | 14.5 or lower | 16.5 or higher |
| Derik Queen | rebounds | 10.7 | 9.5 or lower | 11.5 or higher |
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks: ATL 51%
The model has ATL at 51% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 4 games in) (+5.4 points), streak (+1.6 points), head to head (+1.2 points). The case against is true shooting (-1.6 points). The line is ATL -1.5, total 237.5.
| CLE | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +2.0 | +5.0 |
| Home / road | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L3 |
| Last five | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Mouhamed Gueye.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | points | 21.4 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Jalen Johnson | rebounds | 10.2 | 8.5 or lower | 11.5 or higher |
| Donovan Mitchell | points | 25.7 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Donovan Mitchell | rebounds | 4.9 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Evan Mobley | points | 17.7 | 15.5 or lower | 18.5 or higher |
| Evan Mobley | rebounds | 8.8 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| James Harden | points | 18.6 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| James Harden | rebounds | 4.4 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | points | 20.1 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | rebounds | 3.4 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
Yesterday's board
12 games, the model went 9-3. The market favourite went 9-3.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at UTAH | SA | 82% | 79% | 83% | SA 117-111 | Hit | SA -650 (hit) |
| WSH at CLE | CLE | 77% | 77% | 77% | CLE 121-111 | Hit | CLE -395 (hit) |
| CHA at DET | DET | 71% | 71% | 71% | DET 97-89 | Hit | DET -290 (hit) |
| NY at CHI | NY | 70% | 70% | 70% | NY 133-127 | Hit | NY -278 (hit) |
| HOU at MIL | HOU | 69% | 60% | 74% | HOU 132-100 | Hit | HOU -340 (hit) |
| OKC at DAL | OKC | 66% | 65% | 67% | DAL 120-96 | Miss | OKC -205 (miss) |
| LAL at LAC | LAL | 65% | 69% | 64% | LAL 103-87 | Hit | - |
| DEN at NO | DEN | 64% | 64% | 64% | DEN 104-91 | Hit | - |
| ORL at TOR | TOR | 64% | 64% | 63% | TOR 129-99 | Hit | - |
| PHI at IND | PHI | 62% | 59% | 64% | PHI 114-109 | Hit | PHI -278 (hit) |
| GS at MIN | MIN | 62% | 64% | 60% | GS 119-114 | Miss | - |
| MIA at ATL | ATL | 55% | 56% | 54% | MIA 129-117 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: HOU over MIL: model 60%, market 74%, a 14-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: SA 82% over UTAH (hit), CLE 77% over WSH (hit), DET 71% over CHA (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 6-1 on its 7 legs here.
Season to date through October 28: 47-23 (67.1%), Brier 0.201; market favourites 45-23 on the 68 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 34-10.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-10-29: 47 of 70 (67.1%), Brier score 0.201. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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