NBA Picks for October 24: CLE 80% Leads a 8-Game Board

8 NBA games on the board for 2026-10-24. The firmest call is CLE at 80% over BKN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 4. Season to date the model is 20-10 (66.7%) on graded picks, Brier 0.219.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

SA over DAL: we make it 79%, the market 82% (a 3-point gap).

PHI over MIL: we make it 77%, the market 84% (a 6-point gap).

DEN over NO: we make it 76%, the market 80% (a 4-point gap).

MIA over CHA: we make it 53%, the market 56% (a 3-point gap).

Game by game

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers: CLE 80%

The model has CLE at 80% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: head to head (+7.8 points), venue (+5.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 1 games in) (-2.6 points). The line is CLE -11.5, total 227.5.

BKN out: Tyler Bilodeau.

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks: SA 79%

The model has SA at 79% against a market price of 82%. What drives it: injuries (dal without flagg, lively; aldama, howard day-to-day; sa: harris day-to-day) (+5.3 points), head to head (+4.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.3 points). The case against is streak (-1.5 points). The line is SA -12.5, total 232.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

SA out: Jayden Quaintance. DAL out: Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively II.

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers: PHI 77%

The model has PHI at 77% against a market price of 84%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (+11.0 points), rest (+2.7 points), head to head (+2.3 points). The case against is injuries (phi without barlow, hukporti; wade questionable, james day-to-day) (-3.2 points). The line is PHI -12.5, total 235.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall.

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets: DEN 76%

The model has DEN at 76% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: head to head (+7.8 points), venue (+6.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 1 and 2 games in) (-6.1 points). The line is DEN -11.5, total 239.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

DEN out: Cameron Johnson, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones.

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns: PHX 74%

The model has PHX at 74% against a market price of 76%. What drives it: injuries (phx without williams, kennard; gs without curry, butler, podziemski; bassey day-to-day) (+12.8 points), star availability (+7.9 points), venue (+4.9 points). The case against is head to head (-4.0 points). The line is PHX -9.5, total 221.5.

GS out: Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. PHX out: Mark Williams.

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls: CHI 54%

The model has CHI at 54% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: head to head (+10.1 points), net rating (+2.0 points), streak (+1.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (-16.9 points). The line is CHI -1.5, total 245.5.

WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Tristan Vukcevic. CHI out: Nic Claxton.

Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks: ATL 53%

The model has ATL at 53% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (+8.9 points), injuries (atl without gueye; hou without adams; sheppard doubtful) (+2.7 points), point margin (+1.1 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-6.4 points). The line is ATL -1.5, total 227.5.

ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Mouhamed Gueye.

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets: MIA 53%

The model has MIA at 53% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 2 and 2 games in) (+9.1 points), venue (+8.2 points), head to head (+6.2 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-4.2 points). The line is MIA -3.5, total 229.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

CHA out: Kylan Boswell.

Yesterday's board

12 games, the model went 7-5. The market favourite went 6-6.

Where the model and the market split: NO at UTAH: the model took UTAH (61%), the market NO; the served pick was UTAH and the pick hit. DET at MIA: the model took MIA (51%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. POR over SAC: model 63%, market 78%, a 15-point gap; the pick hit. TOR over WSH: model 60%, market 73%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. LAL over LAC: model 82%, market 76%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. MIL over CHI: model 57%, market 52%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.

The firmest calls: LAL 80% over LAC (hit), POR 68% over SAC (hit), IND 67% over DAL (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-3 on its 6 legs here.

Season to date through October 23: 20-10 (66.7%), Brier 0.219; market favourites 17-11 on the 28 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 10-4.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-10-24: 20 of 30 (66.7%), Brier score 0.219. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

Responsible play

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