NBA2026-10-14Victor Wembanyama Is the 2026-27 MVP Favorite and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Three-Peat Price Is the Market's Real Question
By Verdexed NBA Desk
Victor Wembanyama enters the 2026-27 season as the betting favorite for MVP at every major sportsbook, with back-to-back winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander second and Nikola Jokic third. DraftKings listed Wembanyama at +200 in early October, per TheLines, with Gilgeous-Alexander at +350 and Jokic at +550. Sportsbook Review's Oct. 13 survey of the market found the best available Wembanyama price at +247 via Pinnacle.
The board is a referendum on two things: whether voters are ready to move on from Gilgeous-Alexander after two straight trophies, and whether Wembanyama can stay on the floor for the 65 games required to be eligible. The season opens Oct. 20, and the schedule makers put both men on the same floor that night: Oklahoma City at San Antonio, 9:30 p.m. ET, a rematch of last spring's Western Conference Finals.
The board
These are the confirmed prices from published October market surveys. Implied probability is simple math on the American odds and includes the sportsbook's margin.
| Player | Team | DraftKings (early Oct.) | Best price (Oct. 13) | Implied at best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | +200 | +247 (Pinnacle) | 28.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | +350 | +550 (Caesars) | 15.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | +550 | +600 (FanDuel) | 14.3% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | n/a | +600 (BetMGM) | 14.3% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | n/a | +2000 (BetMGM) | 4.8% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | n/a | +2500 (FanDuel) | 3.8% |
The gap between DraftKings and the best available prices is worth noticing. Gilgeous-Alexander at +350 at one book and +550 at another is a wide spread for the second choice in a major futures market, and it tells you the books do not agree on how much voter fatigue to price in.
Why Wembanyama is the favorite
Wembanyama is coming off one of the most decorated non-MVP seasons in recent memory. He was the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year, made the All-NBA first team with 99 of 100 first-team votes, and finished third in MVP voting. San Antonio then beat Oklahoma City in seven games in the Western Conference Finals before losing the Finals to the Knicks. He also signed a five-year rookie maximum extension worth roughly $252 million this summer, so the Spurs have no ambiguity about whose team it is.
The narrative case writes itself. Voters have historically rewarded a rising star on a top seed, and Wembanyama's defensive impact gives him a floor no other candidate has. Sportsbook Review's October analysis argued he is the best value among the top choices for exactly that reason, pointing to his defense and to possible fatigue with Gilgeous-Alexander.
The risk is availability. The 65-game minimum is a hard line, and a player who is 7-foot-4 who has missed long stretches in past seasons carries more variance on that front than the betting price implies. San Antonio also has a deeper roster now, with De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper in a three-guard look, which helps the team win but can trim individual counting numbers.
The case for the rest of the field
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He won the 2025-26 MVP with 83 of 100 first-place votes and became just the 14th player in league history to win it in consecutive seasons. No player has won three straight since Larry Bird in the 1980s, and that historical weight is the main reason he is not the favorite. His production and Oklahoma City's record are not the issue. At +550, he is the most interesting price on the board.
Nikola Jokic. The three-time winner finished second last season despite missing 16 straight games with a knee bone bruise, and he has finished in the top two in six of the last seven seasons. Denver coverage put his final line at 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists. If he stays healthy, the statistical case is always there. The question is whether voters, who have now passed on him twice in a row, need a new story.
Luka Doncic. With LeBron James now in Philadelphia, Doncic runs the Lakers alone, and his usage could climb. He has the counting stats to win; the Lakers' place in the West standings is the obstacle. MVPs usually come from teams that finish in the top two of their conference.
Fantasy fallout
MVP odds are a useful proxy for fantasy draft boards because the same things drive both: minutes, usage and health. Wembanyama's blocks and rebounds make him a top-two pick in category leagues regardless of the award, but the 65-game rule is a reminder that his games-played risk is real. Fantasy managers who take him in the first round should consider pairing him with a durable guard rather than another high-variance big man.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the safest first-round pick on the board by most measures: high scoring, strong percentages and steady availability. Jokic remains the most valuable per-game player in fantasy basketball when he plays, but last season's 16-game absence is a reason to rank him by expected games, not per-game totals. Doncic's usage bump after James's departure makes him a strong points-league target, with the usual caveat about turnovers in category formats.
The Verdexed angle
The actionable read is that the market has done its job on Wembanyama. At +200 to +247, the price already reflects his status as the favorite and leaves little cushion for the injury risk built into the 65-game rule. The more interesting decision is whether to take a position against the consensus.
Gilgeous-Alexander at the best available +550 is the price that stands out. A two-time reigning MVP on a contender rarely gets offered at nearly triple the favorite's number, and the voter fatigue argument is a narrative, not a statistical problem. Bettors who want exposure should shop for the best line, since the spread between books is wide. Jokic at +600 is a reasonable second hedge for the same reasons, with health as the swing factor. Cunningham at +2500 is the longest price with a realistic path, given Detroit's rise in the East.
Only bet futures with money you can afford to tie up for six months, and only where sports betting is legal in your jurisdiction. Verdexed's game-by-game probabilities for the season will be posted at /nba/predictions.
What's next
Opening night gives the market its first live data point: Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama meet in San Antonio on Oct. 20. One game will not decide anything, but early-season futures prices move on national-TV performances, and the first two weeks are usually the best window to buy a contender before a hot start shortens his price. Track minutes and games played for every name on this list. In a race with a 65-game threshold, availability will decide the award as much as production does.