NBA Picks for October 28: SA 82% Leads a 12-Game Board

12 NBA games on the board for 2026-10-28. The firmest call is SA at 82% over UTAH; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 38-20 (65.5%) on graded picks, Brier 0.208.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

HOU over MIL: we make it 69%, the market 74% (a 5-point gap).

Game by game

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: SA 82%

The model has SA at 82% against a market price of 83%. What drives it: injuries (utah without jackson, nurkic, alexander; markkanen questionable; sa without harris) (+6.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.1 points), venue (+3.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (-6.2 points). The line is SA -13.5, total 233.5.

SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander.

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers: CLE 77%

The model has CLE at 77% against a market price of 77%. What drives it: head to head (+9.4 points), venue (+6.4 points), injuries (wsh without champagnie, watkins, vukcevic) (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 4 games in) (-9.5 points). The line is CLE -10.5, total 239.5.

WSH out: AJ Dybantsa, Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic.

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons: DET 71%

The model has DET at 71% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: head to head (+7.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (+4.9 points), star availability (+2.9 points). The case against is venue (-7.3 points). The line is DET -7.5, total 215.5.

CHA out: Coby White, Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel, Kylan Boswell. DET out: Jalen Duren.

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls: NY 70%

The model has NY at 70% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.8 points), head to head (+4.2 points), pace (+2.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (-7.2 points). The line is NY -6.5, total 231.5.

CHI out: Nic Claxton.

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks: HOU 69%

The model has HOU at 69% against a market price of 74%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.8 points), head to head (+3.9 points), defense (+2.6 points). The case against is venue (-6.7 points). The line is HOU -8.5, total 225.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.

HOU out: Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks: OKC 66%

The model has OKC at 66% against a market price of 67%. What drives it: head to head (+4.1 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.6 points), defense (+3.0 points). The case against is injuries (dal without aldama, lively, martin; marshall day-to-day; okc without holmgren, williams, mitchell) (-9.1 points). The line is OKC -6.5, total 228.5.

OKC out: Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Nikola Topic. DAL out: Caleb Martin, Dereck Lively II, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.

Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers: LAL 65%

The model has LAL at 65% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 4 games in) (+14.9 points), injuries (lac without ingram, hachimura, strus; lal without thiero) (+10.9 points), star availability (+6.2 points). The case against is venue (-4.4 points). The line is LAL -4.5, total 229.5.

LAL out: Adou Thiero, Cameron Carr. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Jordan Miller, Max Strus, Rui Hachimura, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.

Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: DEN 64%

The model has DEN at 64% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: head to head (+10.4 points), venue (+5.0 points), shooting (efg) (+2.7 points). The case against is rest (-1.7 points). The line is DEN -4.5, total 240.5.

DEN out: Alpha Diallo, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones. NO out: Yves Missi.

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors: TOR 64%

The model has TOR at 64% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+4.7 points), injuries (tor without leonard; orl without banchero, suggs, penda; black questionable) (+4.1 points), head to head (+3.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 3 and 3 games in) (-3.5 points). The line is TOR -4.5, total 222.5.

ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. TOR out: Brandon Ingram, Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle.

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers: PHI 62%

The model has PHI at 62% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: injuries (ind without zubac, sheppard, mcconnell; nembhard questionable, nesmith, toppin day-to-day; phi without barlow, walker, hukporti) (+6.8 points), star availability (+4.8 points), head to head (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 4 and 4 games in) (-6.0 points). The line is PHI -5.5, total 236.5.

PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow, Jabari Walker, Tacko Fall. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, T.J. McConnell.

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves: MIN 62%

The model has MIN at 62% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: venue (+5.5 points), head to head (+2.0 points), travel (+1.4 points). The case against is injuries (min without edwards, divincenzo; gs without butler, porzingis, moody) (-2.2 points). The line is MIN -4.5, total 227.5.

GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks: ATL 55%

The model has ATL at 55% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: recent form (+1.4 points), pace (+1.2 points), venue (+1.0 points). The case against is head to head (-5.4 points). The line is ATL -1.5, total 241.5.

MIA out: Simone Fontecchio. ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Mouhamed Gueye.

Yesterday's board

4 games, the model went 3-1. The market favourite went 3-1.

Where the model and the market split: LAL over POR: model 67%, market 56%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed. NY over DET: model 64%, market 58%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.

The firmest calls: SA 88% over SAC (hit), BOS 82% over BKN (hit), LAL 60% over POR (miss).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 3-1 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through October 27: 38-20 (65.5%), Brier 0.208; market favourites 36-20 on the 56 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 25-8.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-10-28: 38 of 58 (65.5%), Brier score 0.208. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

Responsible play

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