NBA2026-11-05NBA Picks for November 5: GS 65% Leads a 2-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
2 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-05. The firmest call is GS at 65% over MIA; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 1. Season to date the model is 84-39 (68.3%) on graded picks, Brier 0.203.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at GS | GS | 65% | 71% | -6 | -279 | GS -7.5 | 235.5 | GS -279 |
| ORL at PHX | PHX | 52% | 50.2% | +1 | -110 | PHX -1.5 | 222.5 | PHX -110 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Where the model and the market disagree
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
GS over MIA: we make it 65%, the market 71% (a 6-point gap).
Game by game
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors: GS 65%
The model has GS at 65% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: venue (+5.8 points), rest (+3.6 points), streak (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (-7.9 points). The line is GS -7.5, total 235.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: GS is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.
| MIA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -4.9 | +2.9 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W5 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
GS out: Gui Santos, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | points | 37.2 | 33.5 or lower | 38.5 or higher |
| Stephen Curry | rebounds | 5.3 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | points | 27.2 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | rebounds | 12.7 | 11.5 or lower | 13.5 or higher |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | points | 27.6 | 25.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | rebounds | 8 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Brandin Podziemski | points | 21.4 | 19.5 or lower | 22.5 or higher |
| Brandin Podziemski | rebounds | 7.4 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Bam Adebayo | points | 20.6 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Bam Adebayo | rebounds | 9.1 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns: PHX 52%
The model has PHX at 52% against a market price of 50.2%. What drives it: venue (+6.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 7 games in) (+5.6 points), injuries (PHX without Williams; Goodwin, Fleming day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda) (+4.7 points). The case against is rest (-4.0 points). The line is PHX -1.5, total 222.5.
| ORL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-5 | 1-5 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -9.0 | -11.0 |
| Home / road | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. PHX out: Mark Williams.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | points | 25.7 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Franz Wagner | rebounds | 7.3 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Desmond Bane | points | 22.7 | 20.5 or lower | 23.5 or higher |
| Desmond Bane | rebounds | 4.3 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Anthony Black | points | 19.1 | 17.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Anthony Black | rebounds | 5.4 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Devin Booker | points | 24.9 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Devin Booker | rebounds | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Miles Bridges | points | 19.1 | 17.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Miles Bridges | rebounds | 7.2 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
Yesterday's board
14 games, the model went 10-4. The market favourite went 10-4.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at SA | SA | 82% | 84% | 81% | SA 112-111 | Hit | SA -620 (hit) |
| CHI at NY | NY | 82% | 81% | 82% | NY 135-105 | Hit | NY -597 (hit) |
| LAL at SAC | LAL | 80% | 77% | 82% | LAL 116-103 | Hit | LAL -650 (hit) |
| MIL at BOS | BOS | 80% | 74% | 82% | BOS 109-102 | Hit | BOS -567 (hit) |
| MIN at HOU | HOU | 70% | 67% | 71% | MIN 117-107 | Miss | HOU -278 (miss) |
| IND at MEM | MEM | 65% | 56% | 69% | IND 107-103 | Miss | MEM -237 (miss) |
| UTAH at NO | NO | 64% | 58% | 67% | NO 120-113 | Hit | - |
| MIA at LAC | MIA | 63% | 60% | 64% | MIA 117-116 | Hit | MIA -216 (hit) |
| TOR at DEN | DEN | 63% | 62% | 63% | DEN 128-109 | Hit | - |
| CLE at OKC | OKC | 61% | 68% | 58% | OKC 124-116 | Hit | - |
| CHA at BKN | CHA | 59% | 60% | 59% | BKN 114-104 | Miss | - |
| ATL at WSH | ATL | 57% | 54% | 58% | ATL 120-105 | Hit | - |
| PHI at DET | DET | 57% | 60% | 55% | PHI 112-106 | Miss | - |
| POR at PHX | POR | 54% | 43% | 58% | POR 132-119 | Hit | - |
Where the model and the market split: POR at PHX: the model took PHX (57%), the market POR; the served pick was POR and the pick hit. MEM over IND: model 56%, market 69%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed. OKC over CLE: model 68%, market 58%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. NO over UTAH: model 58%, market 67%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. BOS over MIL: model 74%, market 82%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. LAL over SAC: model 77%, market 82%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: SA 82% over DAL (hit), NY 82% over CHI (hit), LAL 80% over SAC (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 5-2 on its 7 legs here.
Season to date through November 4: 84-39 (68.3%), Brier 0.203; market favourites 82-39 on the 121 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 60-20.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-05: 84 of 123 (68.3%), Brier score 0.203. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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