NBA Picks for November 4: SA 82% Leads a 14-Game Board

14 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-04. The firmest call is SA at 82% over DAL; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 2. Season to date the model is 74-35 (67.9%) on graded picks, Brier 0.204.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Where the model and the market disagree

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:

MEM over IND: we make it 65%, the market 69% (a 4-point gap).

POR over PHX: we make it 54%, the market 58% (a 4-point gap).

Game by game

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs: SA 82%

The model has SA at 82% against a market price of 81%. What drives it: head to head (+5.1 points), injuries (SA without Harris; DAL without Christie, Aldama, Lively) (+3.2 points), net rating, last 10 (+2.8 points). The case against is venue (-3.6 points). The line is SA -11.5, total 226.5.

DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Max Christie, Santi Aldama, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks: NY 82%

The model has NY at 82% against a market price of 82%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.7 points), head to head (+4.2 points), venue (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 7 games in) (-3.9 points). The line is NY -11.5, total 234.5.

CHI out: Nic Claxton.

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings: LAL 80%

The model has LAL at 80% against a market price of 82%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.7 points), head to head (+4.8 points), injuries (SAC without Murray, Raynaud; Achiuwa day-to-day; LAL without Thiero) (+3.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-5.7 points). The line is LAL -11.5, total 234.5.

LAL out: Adou Thiero. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud.

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics: BOS 80%

The model has BOS at 80% against a market price of 82%. What drives it: venue (+5.8 points), head to head (+5.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.3 points). The case against is injuries (BOS without Pritchard, Carter; Tatum questionable) (-7.1 points). The line is BOS -11.5, total 223.5.

BOS out: Devin Carter.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets: HOU 70%

The model has HOU at 70% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: injuries (HOU without Adams; Capela day-to-day; MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; Shannon day-to-day) (+6.0 points), star availability (+3.6 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 8 games in) (-4.4 points). The line is HOU -7.5, total 220.5.

MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo. HOU out: Steven Adams.

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies: MEM 65%

The model has MEM at 65% against a market price of 69%. What drives it: head to head (+6.0 points), injuries (MEM without Pippen; Post day-to-day; IND without Zubac, Toppin, Sheppard; Oubre day-to-day) (+3.8 points), net rating, last 10 (+3.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-17.6 points). The line is MEM -6.5, total 228.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: MEM is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

IND out: Ben Sheppard, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell. MEM out: Scotty Pippen Jr..

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans: NO 64%

The model has NO at 64% against a market price of 67%. What drives it: head to head (+7.4 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.8 points), streak (+3.4 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 7 games in) (-16.1 points). The line is NO -5.5, total 233.5.

UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Trey Alexander. NO out: Jordan Poole, Yves Missi.

Miami Heat at LA Clippers: MIA 63%

The model has MIA at 63% against a market price of 64%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.2 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 7 games in) (+5.1 points), travel (+3.8 points). The case against is venue (-4.7 points). The line is MIA -4.5, total 233.5.

LAC out: Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.

Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets: DEN 63%

The model has DEN at 63% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: head to head (+9.9 points), venue (+8.3 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 6 and 7 games in) (+7.1 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-5.6 points). The line is DEN -4.5, total 230.5.

TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle. DEN out: Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder: OKC 61%

The model has OKC at 61% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: head to head (+8.6 points), venue (+8.4 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 7 games in) (+4.0 points). The case against is star availability (-4.1 points). The line is OKC -3.5, total 228.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

CLE out: Jaylon Tyson, Peyton Watson. OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Nikola Topic, Thomas Sorber.

Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets: CHA 59%

The model has CHA at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: venue (+8.5 points), shooting (eFG) (+3.7 points), head to head (+3.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-7.6 points). The line is CHA -3.5, total 213.5.

CHA out: Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel. BKN out: Egor Demin, Tyler Bilodeau.

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards: ATL 57%

The model has ATL at 57% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: venue (+8.7 points), head to head (+5.5 points), defense (+3.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-7.0 points). The line is ATL -2.5, total 232.5.

ATL out: Henri Veesaar, Jock Landale, Mouhamed Gueye. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic.

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons: DET 57%

The model has DET at 57% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: head to head (+9.9 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.6 points), defense (+3.1 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 7 and 8 games in) (-9.2 points). The line is DET -2.5, total 218.5.

PHI out: Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow. DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren.

Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns: POR 54%

The model has POR at 54% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.3 points), streak (+3.2 points), record (+1.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 5 and 6 games in) (-12.1 points). The line is POR -3.5, total 227.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: POR is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

POR out: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe. PHX out: Mark Williams.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-04: 74 of 109 (67.9%), Brier score 0.204. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

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