NBA Picks for November 9: DET 79% Leads a 8-Game Board

8 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-09. The firmest call is DET at 79% over WSH; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 105-43 (70.9%) on graded picks, Brier 0.192.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Game by game

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons: DET 79%

The model has DET at 79% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+3.9 points), head to head (+3.5 points), net rating (+3.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 10 games in) (-6.5 points). The line is DET -10.5, total 217.5.

WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors: GS 74%

The model has GS at 74% against a market price of 76%. What drives it: venue (+5.0 points), head to head (+4.4 points), net rating (+3.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-4.7 points). The line is GS -9.5, total 232.5.

NO out: Yves Missi. GS out: Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Will Richard.

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns: SA 74%

The model has SA at 74% against a market price of 75%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.4 points), net rating (+3.7 points), streak (+2.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 8 and 10 games in) (-5.4 points). The line is SA -8.5, total 227.5.

SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris. PHX out: Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams.

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets: HOU 73%

The model has HOU at 73% against a market price of 74%. What drives it: injuries (HOU without Tshiebwe, Adams, Capela; DEN without Strawther; DeRozan, Gordon questionable, Jokic, Murray day-to-day) (+7.7 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.1 points), pace (+2.8 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 8 games in) (-4.3 points). The line is HOU -9.5, total 219.5.

DEN out: Julian Strawther. HOU out: Clint Capela, Oscar Tshiebwe, Steven Adams.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets: CLE 72%

The model has CLE at 72% against a market price of 74%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.7 points), venue (+7.0 points), head to head (+6.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-8.2 points). The line is CLE -8.5, total 214.5.

CLE out: Jaylon Tyson, Sam Merrill. CHA out: Brandon Miller, Dennis Schroder, Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel.

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors: TOR 59%

The model has TOR at 59% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 9 games in) (+8.0 points), net rating (+4.7 points), streak (+2.8 points). The case against is injuries (TOR without Leonard; Barnes, Quickley day-to-day; MEM without Stewart, Pippen) (-3.7 points). The line is TOR -3.5, total 229.5.

MEM out: Isaiah Stewart, Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr. TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle.

Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks: DAL 59%

The model has DAL at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.8 points), streak (+2.3 points), head to head (+1.6 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 10 games in) (-11.5 points). The line is DAL -3.5, total 227.5.

IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton. DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic.

Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks: ATL 53%

The model has ATL at 53% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: rest (+3.8 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (+3.1 points), back to back (+2.9 points). The case against is travel (-3.7 points). The line is ATL -1.5, total 237.5.

ATL out: Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar, Jock Landale, Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye.

Yesterday's board

7 games, the model went 5-2. The market favourite went 5-2.

Where the model and the market split: NO at LAC: the model took LAC (57%), the market NO; the served pick was NO and the pick missed. BOS over MIL: model 73%, market 85%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. PHI over CHI: model 68%, market 77%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. DAL over BKN: model 72%, market 78%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. MIN over UTAH: model 77%, market 82%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.

The firmest calls: BOS 83% over MIL (hit), MIN 81% over UTAH (hit), DAL 76% over BKN (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 5-1 on its 6 legs here.

Season to date through November 8: 105-43 (70.9%), Brier 0.192; market favourites 103-43 on the 146 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 80-22.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-09: 105 of 148 (70.9%), Brier score 0.192. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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