NBA2026-11-12NBA Picks for November 12: DET 77% Leads a 4-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
4 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-12. The firmest call is DET at 77% over WSH; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 122-50 (70.9%) on graded picks, Brier 0.190.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at WSH | DET | 77% | 79% | -2 | -467 | DET -10.5 | 220.5 | DET -467 |
| TOR at PHI | PHI | 72% | 74% | -2 | -326 | PHI -8.5 | 223.5 | PHI -344 |
| CHA at PHX | PHX | 68% | 68% | 0 | -244 | PHX -6.5 | 214.5 | PHX -244 |
| DAL at MIN | MIN | 67% | 66% | 0 | -223 | MIN -5.5 | 225.5 | MIN -223 |
The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.
Game by game
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards: DET 77%
The model has DET at 77% against a market price of 79%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.9 points), venue (+6.0 points), head to head (+4.7 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 10 games in) (-15.2 points). The line is DET -10.5, total 220.5.
| DET | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 | 4-8 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +8.1 | -5.9 |
| Home / road | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
DET out: Isaiah Joe, Jalen Duren. WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | points | 25.5 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Cade Cunningham | rebounds | 5.7 | 4.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
| Anthony Davis | points | 27.3 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Anthony Davis | rebounds | 12.3 | 11.5 or lower | 13.5 or higher |
| Duncan Robinson | points | 24 | 21.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Duncan Robinson | assists | 2.9 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Ausar Thompson | points | 11.9 | 10.5 or lower | 12.5 or higher |
| Ausar Thompson | rebounds | 9.3 | 8.5 or lower | 10.5 or higher |
| Kyshawn George | points | 20.6 | 18.5 or lower | 21.5 or higher |
| Kyshawn George | rebounds | 5.1 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers: PHI 72%
The model has PHI at 72% against a market price of 74%. What drives it: injuries (PHI without Barlow, Bona, Hukporti; TOR without Barnes, Leonard, Jackson-Davis) (+5.1 points), rest (+3.1 points), back to back (+2.4 points). The case against is head to head (-2.8 points). The line is PHI -8.5, total 223.5.
| TOR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +2.5 | +1.0 |
| Home / road | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Last five | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle, Scottie Barnes. PHI out: Adem Bona, Ariel Hukporti, Dominick Barlow.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | points | 24.1 | 21.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Jaylen Brown | rebounds | 7.3 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Tyrese Maxey | points | 24.8 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Tyrese Maxey | rebounds | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| LeBron James | points | 16.3 | 14.5 or lower | 17.5 or higher |
| LeBron James | rebounds | 8.3 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Joel Embiid | points | 19.6 | 17.5 or lower | 20.5 or higher |
| Joel Embiid | rebounds | 10.8 | 9.5 or lower | 11.5 or higher |
| RJ Barrett | points | 22.2 | 20.5 or lower | 23.5 or higher |
| RJ Barrett | rebounds | 6.1 | 5.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns: PHX 68%
The model has PHX at 68% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: injuries (PHX without Williams; CHA without Miller, Knueppel, Schroder; Diabate probable) (+9.3 points), venue (+5.7 points), net rating, last 10 (+5.2 points). The case against is travel (-1.9 points). The line is PHX -6.5, total 214.5.
| CHA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Margin per game (pts) | -11.5 | -5.3 |
| Home / road | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Last five | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CHA out: Brandon Miller, Dennis Schroder, Grant Williams, Kon Knueppel. PHX out: Mark Williams.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naz Reid | points | 24.4 | 22.5 or lower | 25.5 or higher |
| Naz Reid | rebounds | 10.8 | 9.5 or lower | 11.5 or higher |
| Devin Booker | points | 27 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| Devin Booker | assists | 4.7 | 3.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Grayson Allen | points | 23.6 | 21.5 or lower | 24.5 or higher |
| Grayson Allen | rebounds | 3.8 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Miles Bridges | points | 14.9 | 13.5 or lower | 15.5 or higher |
| Miles Bridges | rebounds | 8.3 | 7.5 or lower | 9.5 or higher |
| Moussa Diabate | points | 11.9 | 10.5 or lower | 12.5 or higher |
| Moussa Diabate | rebounds | 12.6 | 11.5 or lower | 13.5 or higher |
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves: MIN 67%
The model has MIN at 67% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: head to head (+8.9 points), venue (+5.2 points), net rating (+3.7 points). The case against is injuries (MIN without Edwards, DiVincenzo; DAL without Lively; Johnson probable) (-5.6 points). The line is MIN -5.5, total 225.5.
| DAL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-4 | 8-3 |
| Margin per game (pts) | +4.6 | +11.1 |
| Home / road | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W4 |
| Last five | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head to head | 0 wins | 6 wins |
DAL out: Dereck Lively II, Sergio de Larrea, Tarik Biberovic. MIN out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | points | 27.4 | 24.5 or lower | 28.5 or higher |
| LaMelo Ball | rebounds | 5.1 | 4.5 or lower | 5.5 or higher |
| Cooper Flagg | points | 26.8 | 24.5 or lower | 27.5 or higher |
| Cooper Flagg | rebounds | 7.9 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Ayo Dosunmu | points | 25.6 | 23.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Ayo Dosunmu | rebounds | 6.3 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Kyrie Irving | points | 25.2 | 22.5 or lower | 26.5 or higher |
| Kyrie Irving | rebounds | 3.2 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Jaden McDaniels | points | 18.7 | 16.5 or lower | 19.5 or higher |
| Jaden McDaniels | rebounds | 6.5 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
Yesterday's board
10 games, the model went 7-3. The market favourite went 7-3.
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result | Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA at CHI | SA | 87% | 78% | 89% | SA 124-119 | Hit | SA -1180 (hit) |
| LAL at MIL | LAL | 83% | 75% | 85% | LAL 123-112 | Hit | LAL -840 (hit) |
| GS at HOU | HOU | 69% | 70% | 69% | HOU 115-108 | Hit | HOU -264 (hit) |
| BOS at TOR | BOS | 68% | 64% | 69% | BOS 98-93 | Hit | BOS -204 (hit) |
| BKN at NO | NO | 63% | 63% | 62% | BKN 145-111 | Miss | - |
| CLE at NY | NY | 62% | 65% | 62% | CLE 115-107 | Miss | NY -205 (miss) |
| ORL at UTAH | ORL | 61% | 64% | 60% | ORL 123-108 | Hit | ORL -179 (hit) |
| DEN at MEM | DEN | 60% | 62% | 60% | DEN 123-118 | Hit | DEN -161 (hit) |
| WSH at IND | IND | 59% | 66% | 57% | IND 114-101 | Hit | - |
| OKC at POR | OKC | 54% | 64% | 52% | POR 118-108 | Miss | - |
Where the model and the market split: OKC over POR: model 64%, market 52%, a 12-point gap; the pick missed. SA over CHI: model 78%, market 89%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. LAL over MIL: model 75%, market 85%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. IND over WSH: model 66%, market 57%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls: SA 87% over CHI (hit), LAL 83% over MIL (hit), HOU 69% over GS (hit).
The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 6-1 on its 7 legs here.
Season to date through November 11: 122-50 (70.9%), Brier 0.190; market favourites 120-50 on the 170 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 94-26.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-12: 122 of 172 (70.9%), Brier score 0.190. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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