NBA Picks for November 11: SA 87% Leads a 10-Game Board

10 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-11. The firmest call is SA at 87% over CHI; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 115-47 (71.0%) on graded picks, Brier 0.191.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Game by game

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls: SA 87%

The model has SA at 87% against a market price of 89%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.1 points), net rating (+2.6 points), pace (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 9 and 11 games in) (-4.3 points). The line is SA -15.5, total 238.5.

SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks: LAL 83%

The model has LAL at 83% against a market price of 85%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.2 points), net rating (+3.2 points), rest (+2.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 12 games in) (-8.1 points). The line is LAL -14.5, total 228.5.

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets: HOU 69%

The model has HOU at 69% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: injuries (HOU without Adams, Capela; GS without Butler, Williams, Porzingis) (+5.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (+3.2 points), travel (+1.5 points). The case against is streak (-3.0 points). The line is HOU -6.5, total 220.5.

GS out: Brandon Williams, Gary Payton II, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody. HOU out: Clint Capela, Steven Adams.

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors: BOS 67%

The model has BOS at 67% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: head to head (+9.2 points), injuries (TOR without Barnes, Leonard; Quickley, Murray-Boyles day-to-day) (+8.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+6.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 11 games in) (-9.5 points). The line is BOS -5.5, total 215.5.

TOR out: Kawhi Leonard, Nate Bittle, Scottie Barnes.

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks: NY 62%

The model has NY at 62% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: head to head (+8.5 points), venue (+4.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.0 points). The case against is rest (-3.6 points). The line is NY -4.5, total 222.5.

CLE out: Jaylon Tyson, Sam Merrill. NY out: Josh Hart.

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies: DEN 60%

The model has DEN at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 9 games in) (+7.8 points), head to head (+6.4 points), travel (+2.6 points). The case against is net rating, last 10 (-5.0 points). The line is DEN -3.5, total 230.5.

DEN out: Julian Strawther. MEM out: Quinten Post, Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr.

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz: ORL 60%

The model has ORL at 60% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: venue (+6.0 points), net rating (+5.1 points), injuries (UTAH without George, Jackson, Nurkic; Markkanen day-to-day; ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Silva questionable) (+4.3 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 10 games in) (-10.0 points). The line is ORL -2.5, total 214.5.

ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero. UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic.

Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans: NO 59%

The model has NO at 59% against a market price of 59%. What drives it: net rating (+3.0 points), net rating, last 10 (+2.7 points), pace (+2.1 points). The case against is injuries (NO without Murphy, Watford, Mathurin; BKN without Demin; Traore day-to-day) (-5.4 points). The line is NO -3.5, total 229.5.

BKN out: Egor Demin, Mikel Brown Jr. NO out: Bennedict Mathurin, Trendon Watford, Yves Missi.

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers: IND 58%

The model has IND at 58% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: home/road split (+3.5 points), net rating, last 10 (+1.8 points), streak (+1.7 points). The case against is venue (-4.3 points). The line is IND -2.5, total 227.5.

WSH out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Reece Beekman, Tristan Vukcevic. IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers: OKC 54%

The model has OKC at 54% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: venue (+7.9 points), head to head (+5.3 points), net rating (+4.2 points). The case against is streak (-1.7 points). The line is OKC -1.5, total 225.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber. POR out: Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci.

Yesterday's board

6 games, the model went 5-1. The market favourite went 5-1.

Where the model and the market split: OKC over POR: model 67%, market 54%, a 13-point gap; the pick missed.

The firmest calls: NY 87% over MIL (hit), MIA 74% over UTAH (hit), ORL 66% over SAC (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-0 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through November 10: 115-47 (71.0%), Brier 0.191; market favourites 113-47 on the 160 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 88-24.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-11: 115 of 162 (71.0%), Brier score 0.191. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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