NBA Picks for November 13: HOU 88% Leads a 9-Game Board

9 NBA games on the board for 2026-11-13. The firmest call is HOU at 88% over UTAH; the model and the market broadly agree. Season to date the model is 126-50 (71.6%) on graded picks, Brier 0.188.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The board

The pick is the more likely winner (the model blended with the market). The Model Card leg is a different question: the side whose price beats the model's own number. In a close game they can point at different teams; both are shown, and both are graded.

Game by game

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets: HOU 88%

The model has HOU at 88% against a market price of 89%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.1 points), injuries (HOU without Smart, Adams, Capela; UTAH without Markkanen, Jackson, Nurkic) (+4.7 points), head to head (+2.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) (-6.9 points). The line is HOU -15.5, total 220.5.

UTAH out: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic, Lauri Markkanen, Trey Alexander. HOU out: Clint Capela, Marcus Smart, Steven Adams.

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs: SA 84%

The model has SA at 84% against a market price of 84%. What drives it: injuries (SA without Harris; Fox, Vassell day-to-day; GS without Curry, Butler, Porzingis; Bassey day-to-day) (+6.5 points), preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 12 games in) (+3.0 points), streak (+2.1 points). The case against is venue (-3.1 points). The line is SA -11.5, total 217.5.

GS out: Brandon Williams, Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry. SA out: Jayden Quaintance, Tobias Harris.

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings: POR 77%

The model has POR at 77% against a market price of 79%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+7.0 points), head to head (+6.5 points), venue (+4.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 11 games in) (-6.5 points). The line is POR -9.5, total 228.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: POR is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

POR out: Chris Youngblood, Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci. SAC out: Ben Simmons, Maxime Raynaud.

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic: ORL 74%

The model has ORL at 74% against a market price of 75%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.4 points), net rating (+3.8 points), streak (+2.9 points). The case against is injuries (ORL without Banchero, Suggs, Penda; Cain questionable, Silva day-to-day) (-5.2 points). The line is ORL -8.5, total 224.5.

ORL out: Izaiyah Nelson, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda, Paolo Banchero.

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers: NY 72%

The model has NY at 72% against a market price of 73%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+5.5 points), net rating (+4.0 points), head to head (+3.9 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-12.1 points). The line is NY -8.5, total 219.5.

IND out: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Tyrese Haliburton.

Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls: ATL 71%

The model has ATL at 71% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+6.6 points), net rating (+4.6 points), injuries (CHI without Wilson; Powell day-to-day; ATL without Newell, Gueye; Flemings day-to-day) (+4.5 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 10 and 12 games in) (-11.6 points). The line is ATL -6.5, total 246.5.

ATL out: Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar, Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye. CHI out: Caleb Wilson, Tobe Awaka.

Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers: OKC 70%

The model has OKC at 70% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: head to head (+10.3 points), net rating, last 10 (+4.9 points), net rating (+4.3 points). The case against is venue (-4.2 points). The line is OKC -7.5, total 221.5.

OKC out: Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber. LAC out: Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Yanic Konan Niederhauser.

Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans: MEM 55%

The model has MEM at 55% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: net rating, last 10 (+8.3 points), net rating (+5.3 points), venue (+5.2 points). The case against is preseason prior (season-win futures, 12 and 11 games in) (-14.1 points). The line is MEM -2.5, total 237.5.

MEM out: Quinten Post, Richie Saunders, Scotty Pippen Jr., Zach Edey. NO out: Trendon Watford, Yves Missi.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat: MIA 54%

The model has MIA at 54% against a market price of 55%. What drives it: preseason prior (season-win futures, 11 and 12 games in) (+5.1 points), venue (+2.9 points), games in 4 nights (+1.3 points). The case against is net rating (-4.0 points). The line is MIA -2.5, total 235.5.

CLE out: Evan Mobley, Sam Merrill.

Yesterday's board

4 games, the model went 4-0. The market favourite went 4-0.

Where the model and the market split: PHI over TOR: model 62%, market 74%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. DET over WSH: model 71%, market 79%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.

The firmest calls: DET 77% over WSH (hit), PHI 72% over TOR (hit), PHX 68% over CHA (hit).

The Model Card is a different question from the pick: the pick is the more likely winner, the card leg is the side whose price beats the model's own number. The card went 4-0 on its 4 legs here.

Season to date through November 12: 126-50 (71.6%), Brier 0.188; market favourites 124-50 on the 174 with a line; picks at 60% or better are 98-26.

The record

Graded regular-season picks since 2025-11-13: 126 of 176 (71.6%), Brier score 0.188. The live figure, the hit rate by confidence band and every voided pick with its reason are on the NBA accuracy page.

Responsible play

This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.

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