The Oilers Signed Alex Formenton for 850 Thousand Dollars and the Upside Is a McDavid Line

Edmonton signed forward Alex Formenton to a one-year contract worth 850 thousand dollars, the league minimum tier, on September 9. Formenton has not appeared in an NHL game since the 2021-22 season. He spent last year with HC Ambri-Piotta in Switzerland, where he scored 13 goals and recorded 23 points in 42 games.

Ottawa removed Formenton from its free agent list in June, which made him an unrestricted free agent and allowed any team to sign him. Edmonton is the team that did.

Why a team like this makes a bet like this

Minimum contracts to players with NHL history are the cheapest lottery tickets in hockey, and Edmonton's roster construction makes them close to mandatory. A team paying two players enormous cap hits has to find production at the bottom of its cap sheet, and the only place that production exists is among players the rest of the league has stopped valuing.

Formenton's pre-absence profile is the part that makes him interesting rather than just cheap. He was a speed forward whose value came from pace and forechecking rather than from finishing, which is precisely the skill set that plays on a line with an elite playmaker. Players who can skate and get open have historically produced far above their expected output in Edmonton, because the passes arrive in places most forwards never see.

The obvious caution is the layoff. Four seasons away from the NHL is a long time, and the Swiss league is a meaningful step down in pace and defensive structure. Thirteen goals in 42 games there does not project cleanly to anything.

What the depth chart looks like

Edmonton has spent this offseason adding to its forward group on short-term deals and has real questions elsewhere on the roster. The goaltending situation has been unsettled, one of its top defensemen requested a trade earlier in the offseason, and the club has been operating with very little cap flexibility throughout.

That combination is how a player with Formenton's recent history ends up in camp with a genuine opportunity. He is not competing for a fourth-line spot against established NHL regulars. He is competing in a forward group with open positions and a coaching staff that will give preseason minutes to anyone who can keep up.

The realistic outcome is a bottom-six role or a start in the minors. The unrealistic but non-zero outcome is a top-six audition next to a player who makes everyone around him better, which is the entire reason this signing is worth discussing at all.

Fantasy fallout

Formenton is not a draft pick in any standard league. He is a name to write down and monitor through the preseason, and the trigger to act is not a good camp. It is a line combination.

The rule for Edmonton flyers is simple and it has held for years: a forward on a minimum contract who gets deployed with the team's top centers becomes immediately relevant in deeper leagues, and a forward who does not get that deployment is worthless in every format. There is no middle ground on this roster, because the gap between the top line's scoring environment and the bottom six's is enormous.

Watch the preseason line rushes and, more importantly, the power play units. Second power play time in Edmonton is worth more than first power play time on several other teams.

For managers in leagues with deep benches or dynasty formats, he is a late-round dart throw with a defined upside case. For anyone in a 12-team redraft league, he is a waiver wire name for October.

Betting angle

There is no direct betting market on a minimum-contract signing, and there should not be. The applicable market is Edmonton's team total and Stanley Cup price, and a depth forward does not move either.

What does matter for the Oilers' number this season is the goaltending and the blue line, which are the two areas where the roster has genuine uncertainty. Anyone pricing Edmonton should be watching the crease, not the fourth line.

The Verdexed model take

Projection systems handle players with multi-season gaps poorly, because the models are built on recent NHL data and there is none. The honest output for Formenton is a wide distribution centered on replacement level, with a long upside tail that exists entirely because of the team he signed with rather than because of anything he has done recently.

Where the model is more useful is on the deployment question. Forwards who receive more than 14 minutes per game with Edmonton's top-six centers have historically produced at rates far above their individual talent would suggest, and the effect is large enough to be the dominant input in any projection for a player in this situation.

Translated into practical terms: Formenton's projection is not about Formenton. It is about which line he skates on, and that will be visible within the first week of preseason games.

What's next

Camps open September 16 and 17. Preseason line combinations will be public almost immediately, and Daily Faceoff will have them before anyone else does.

If Formenton's name appears alongside Edmonton's top forwards in a preseason game, he is worth a waiver claim in deep leagues. If it does not, he is a minimum-contract depth signing that will be forgotten by November, which is the most likely outcome and also the reason the contract cost 850 thousand dollars.