The Canadiens Have Not Signed Zack Bolduc or Arber Xhekaj With Camp Weeks Away

The Montreal Canadiens still have not re-signed forward Zack Bolduc or defenseman Arber Xhekaj, and NHL training camps open in mid-September. Both are restricted free agents coming off inexpensive contracts, and both should be affordable for a team that has cap space available.

That combination, low cost and available space, is why the delay has drawn attention. Montreal Gazette columnist Stu Cowan has floated the possibility that both players could be involved in sign-and-trade arrangements completed before CBA changes take effect on September 16. The reasoning is straightforward: if the deals were simple re-signings, they would already be done.

Pro Hockey Rumors has reported that Montreal is weighing sign-and-trade options for both. The Philadelphia Flyers and Calgary Flames have been the teams most frequently linked to Xhekaj, though Calgary's interest is reported to have cooled after the Flames acquired defenseman Jake Middleton from Minnesota.

There is also a question of attendance. Reporting has suggested more confidence that Bolduc will be in camp on time than Xhekaj, with the defenseman's situation described as the murkier of the two.

Bolduc is the fantasy-relevant name

Xhekaj is a physical defenseman whose value is almost entirely real-world rather than fantasy. In leagues that count hits and penalty minutes he has utility. In standard scoring formats he does not.

Bolduc is a different case. He put up 30 points last season in a campaign that has been widely described as a sophomore slump, and the shape of it was strange. He scored 10 goals in his first 37 games with Montreal, reaching double digits in a December win over Boston, and then went 31 consecutive games without a goal. That is not a decline. That is a slump of a magnitude that almost never repeats.

He was more effective in the playoffs, finishing with three goals and seven points while doing his best work as a physical presence on the third line.

The upside case rests on deployment. Bolduc has produced when placed alongside skill, and the paths available to him in Montreal include time with Ivan Demidov or with the Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield pairing, where he has had success before. A player who gets top-six minutes on that team is a meaningfully different fantasy asset than one who plays 12 minutes on the third line.

Why a trade would change the calculation

If Montreal moves Bolduc in a sign-and-trade, his fantasy outlook depends entirely on the destination. A team with a thin top six that needs a young scoring winger would represent a clear upgrade in opportunity. A team with an established forward group would not.

That uncertainty is the practical reason to be cautious in drafts happening before mid-September. Bolduc's range of outcomes spans from a fringe roster player to a 25-goal winger, and the deciding variable is a transaction that has not happened.

For Xhekaj, a trade to Philadelphia would likely mean more minutes than he gets in Montreal, which matters in hits-and-blocks leagues and matters not at all elsewhere.

Why Montreal is in no hurry

The Canadiens have leverage that most teams negotiating with restricted free agents do not. Neither player has arbitration leverage that would force a rapid resolution, and neither has an offer sheet on the table that Montreal would have to match. A team with cap space and two affordable RFAs can wait, because the players have almost no alternative.

That leverage cuts against the fantasy manager. A negotiation that resolves on the team's timeline rather than the player's is one that can extend into camp, and a forward who signs late and arrives out of rhythm is a forward who starts the season on the third line regardless of what the coaching staff intended in July.

There is also a roster-construction argument for the delay. Montreal has been building around a young core and has spent the last two summers adding to its forward group. If the front office believes it can convert either player into a defenseman or a draft pick that fits its timeline better, the sign-and-trade route is not a fallback. It is the plan.

The Verdexed model take

The model projects Bolduc's shooting percentage to normalize sharply upward from last season, which is the standard adjustment for a player who went a third of a season without scoring after a productive start. On volume alone, his expected goal output was well ahead of his actual output.

The complication is that the model cannot project deployment without knowing the team. Its Montreal-based projection puts him in the fringe-startable range in 12-team leagues, with a top-six deployment scenario pushing him comfortably into rosterable territory. That gap is the entire investment case.

At the team level, the model's Montreal projection is not sensitive to either player. Neither is a top-line contributor at this stage, and the Canadiens' season point total is driven by their goaltending and by the development curve of their young core.

The relevant betting note is not about Montreal at all. It is that the September 16 CBA changes have compressed the league's remaining business into a three-week window, which historically produces a burst of transactions. Expect several teams to complete signings and trades in early September that would otherwise have waited until October, and expect futures prices to move accordingly on the teams that add.

What to do in your league

If your fantasy hockey draft is before mid-September, treat Bolduc as a late-round flier rather than a mid-round pick. You are drafting an unresolved situation.

If your draft is after the resolution, price him according to the destination and the projected line. A top-six role anywhere makes him worth several rounds more than he is currently going.

Leave Xhekaj alone unless your league counts hits, in which case he is a useful streaming defenseman regardless of where he plays.

What is next

September 16 is the date that matters most, because it is the deadline that both sides are reportedly working against. Camps opening in mid-September is the practical one.

Watch Philadelphia specifically. A Flyers team that has been linked to Xhekaj and has room on its blue line is the most concrete rumor in this situation, and a completed deal there would tell you how Montreal intends to handle Bolduc as well.