NFL2026-11-06Texans at Chargers Preview: Woody Marks Carries the Load Without David Montgomery as Justin Herbert's Winless Chargers Face Houston's Pass Rush
By Verdexed NFL Desk
The Houston Texans (2-5) visit the winless Los Angeles Chargers (0-7) on Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET in a matchup of two of the season's biggest disappointments. Houston is a road favorite of 3.5 to 4.5 points depending on the book, with a total in the low 40s. The fantasy headline is in the Texans' backfield: head coach DeMeco Ryans said Wednesday that David Montgomery will not play because of his groin injury, which hands Woody Marks the lead role for a third straight game.
David Montgomery out, Woody Marks in
Montgomery has been dealing with the groin injury since Week 5, and Sunday will be the third game he has missed because of it. He logged a second straight missed practice on Thursday. Ryans said Montgomery has made some progress, and the Texans have not placed him on injured reserve, which keeps a Week 10 return in play, although some outlets consider him unlikely to be ready that soon.
In the two games Montgomery has missed, Marks has controlled the backfield with 34 carries and four targets. The efficiency has not been there, at about 3.6 yards per carry, but volume is the most valuable commodity in fantasy, and Marks has it. The Chargers rank in the middle of the league against running backs, and a game script with Houston leading would mean more carries late.
The verdict on Marks: a volume-based RB2. His ceiling depends on touchdowns, but 17 or so carries in a favorable script is a starting-caliber floor in most formats.
C.J. Stroud is doing it alone
Stroud has been one of the few bright spots for Houston, with 11 touchdown passes against just one interception. The problem is the support. Houston's run game has been mostly nonexistent, and receiver Jaylin Noel is on injured reserve, so the Texans are asking Stroud to carry the offense.
Against a Chargers team that has struggled in all phases, Stroud is a solid QB1 this week. His efficiency and low interception rate make him a safe floor play, and the matchup is good enough to provide a ceiling.
Texans injuries
Safety Reed Blankenship did not practice with concussion and hand issues and is trending toward missing the game. Safety Jalen Pitre and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair were listed as full participants, which is good news for a Houston defense that will be the most valuable fantasy asset in this game.
| Texans player | Injury | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery, RB | Groin | Ruled out by head coach |
| Reed Blankenship, S | Concussion, hand | Trending toward out |
| Jalen Pitre, S | Not specified | Full participant |
| Azeez Al-Shaair, LB | Not specified | Full participant |
The Chargers' collapse
The Chargers are the league's only winless team, and the numbers are ugly. They rank last in the league at 14.1 points per game, they had gone nine quarters without a touchdown entering the week, and Justin Herbert leads the league with 10 interceptions against five touchdown passes. Athlon's analytics breakdown also has them last in EPA.
Injuries are adding up. Tight end David Njoku (fibula) and linebacker Denzel Perryman (pectoral) were limited in practice, and receiver Brenen Thompson (quad, hamstring) and safety Kendall Williamson (calf) did not practice Thursday.
Herbert cannot be started in one-quarterback leagues right now. The interception rate is too high, the offense is not scoring touchdowns, and Houston's defense, healthy at linebacker and with Pitre practicing fully, is a difficult draw.
The one Chargers strength is up front on defense. Khalil Mack, whom the Chargers' head coach said is not being traded, is tied for the league lead with 7.5 sacks entering the week, according to Athlon's breakdown of the matchup. He is the main threat to Stroud's clean-pocket efficiency and the reason Stroud's floor is a touch lower than the matchup suggests.
The Chargers' skill players are low-floor plays. Njoku is a touchdown-dependent tight end in a bad offense, and the receivers are only worth starting in deep leagues.
The Texans defense is a top streaming play
This is the strongest fantasy angle in the game. Houston's D/ST faces a quarterback who leads the league in interceptions and an offense that has not been finding the end zone. The Texans defense is one of the best streaming options of the week.
Betting angle
The market makes Houston a road favorite of 3.5 to 4.5 points, with one book pricing the Chargers as roughly +185 underdogs on the moneyline and the total in the 40.5 to 42.5 range. Public projections land on a Texans win in the 23-17 range.
The case for Houston is straightforward: the better quarterback, the better defense and a pass rush that matches up well. The case for the Chargers is the classic buy-low argument: an 0-7 team at home, getting more than a field goal, against a Houston team that is only 2-5 itself. Bettors who like the under have a strong argument too, since both offenses rank among the league's least productive in some form.
For the model's view on this matchup and the full Week 9 slate, see the NFL Week 9 picks and the NFL predictions page.
What to do in your league
Start Woody Marks as a volume RB2 and C.J. Stroud as a QB1. Pick up and start the Texans' defense if it is available. Bench Justin Herbert in one-quarterback leagues, and treat the Chargers' receivers and Njoku as deep-league plays only. If you roster Montgomery, hold him through the week: without an IR stint, a Week 10 return is still on the table.