Buccaneers at Bears Sunday Night Preview: Caleb Williams' Unbeaten Run Since His Return Meets Tampa Bay's Run-Only Offense as Emeka Egbuka's Foot Lingers

Sunday Night Football in Week 9 sends the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Soldier Field to face a Chicago Bears team that has not trailed at any point since Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury. Chicago is favored by roughly 5.5 to 6.5 points depending on the book, with the total in the mid-to-high 40s and drifting down. The biggest fantasy questions: whether Emeka Egbuka (foot) returns for Tampa Bay, whether the Buccaneers can throw the ball at all after two weeks of near-total reliance on the run, and whether wind and rain in Chicago turn this into a ground game for both sides.

Chicago: three games, three wins, never trailing

Since Williams came back from his hamstring injury, the Bears have scored at least 30 points in all three games and have not trailed at any point in any of them. The most recent was a 34-17 rout of Seattle in which D'Andre Swift scored three touchdowns and defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, acquired from Tennessee before the deadline, made his Bears debut.

That is the profile of an offense that is humming, and a defense that just got a significant interior upgrade. Simmons' presence matters directly for this matchup, because Tampa Bay's offense has been almost entirely run-based for two weeks.

Tampa Bay: the offense that stopped passing

The Buccaneers beat Atlanta 16-0 in a rain-soaked game in which Baker Mayfield attempted only three passes, and both Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell topped 100 rushing yards. Over the last two games combined, Tampa Bay has completed just 7 of 14 passes for 64 yards and one touchdown. That is a weather and game-script story as much as a talent story, but it reflects a team that has fully committed to its backfield.

Here is how Tampa Bay's injury report looked on Wednesday.

Head coach Todd Bowles said the team would see how Egbuka felt on Thursday. He has missed the previous two games. Mayfield's full participation with a right thumb designation should ease any concern about his ability to throw.

Start/sit: Buccaneers

Bucky Irving: start. Irving is leading one of the league's hottest run games and is an RB2 with RB1 upside, even as an underdog. The concern is game script: if Chicago builds an early lead, Tampa Bay will have to throw. Irving's receiving work protects him in that scenario better than Gainwell.

Kenny Gainwell: flex, monitor the hip. Gainwell's 100-yard game was impressive, but his limited practice on Wednesday is worth watching. In a game where Tampa Bay is likely to trail, he is a riskier play than Irving. Flex him in deeper leagues only if he practices fully by Friday.

Baker Mayfield: sit in one-quarterback leagues. Until Tampa Bay shows it is willing to throw again, and with Egbuka uncertain, Mayfield is a QB2. If game script forces volume, he could post a solid line, but the floor is too low to trust in a likely bad-weather game.

Buccaneers receivers: If Egbuka returns, he is a WR3 with a lower ceiling than usual given the passing volume. If he sits again, Chris Godwin is the most likely beneficiary in target share, followed by Ted Hurst. Godwin is a flex option in PPR formats, not a confident start.

Start/sit: Bears

Caleb Williams: start. He is a QB1 this week, with the caveat that weather could cap the passing ceiling. A team that has scored 30 points in three straight games is not one to bench.

D'Andre Swift: start. Swift's three-touchdown game against Seattle makes him an RB2 with a high touchdown ceiling as a home favorite. The Bears' likely positive game script is the best-case scenario for a lead back.

Bears pass catchers: Start the top receiving option as a WR2. A potential low-volume, weather-impacted game lowers the ceiling of the secondary options.

Bears defense: start. A home favorite facing an opponent that has thrown only 14 passes in two weeks, with a new interior lineman in Simmons and potentially poor weather, is a quality defensive play. The risk is that Tampa Bay's run game is efficient enough to sustain long drives, which limits sack and turnover chances.

Betting angle and weather

ESPN lists Chicago around -6 with a total of 47.5 after opening at 48.5, and other books have seen early under money push the total toward 46.5. Previews have flagged possible wind and rain at Soldier Field, which would reinforce Tampa Bay's ground game and slow both offenses down.

The total is the angle. A run-heavy Tampa Bay offense eats clock, and bad weather would push both teams toward the ground. If the forecast holds, the under is worth a look, and the line could move further before kickoff. For the side, outside projections have the Bears winning by around a touchdown. For the model's lean, see /blog/nfl-week-9-picks-2026 and the live board at /nfl/predictions.

What it means

For Chicago, a win on Sunday night would make a strong case that this is one of the NFC's top contenders with a healthy Williams. For Tampa Bay, the question is whether the run-first approach is a sustainable identity or a weather-driven detour. Fantasy managers should prioritize Irving and Swift, use the Bears defense with confidence and keep Tampa Bay's passing game on the bench until the Buccaneers show they can throw again.

Check Friday's final report on Egbuka and Gainwell, and the forecast on Sunday afternoon, before locking in a Sunday night play.