NHL Picks for September 29: EDM 59% Leads a 5-Game Board
By Verdexed Analytics
5 NHL games on the board for 2026-09-29. The firmest call is EDM at 59% over VAN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 2.
Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates, and the crew notes from the referee tables. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge (pts) | Pick price | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN at EDM | EDM | 59% | 71% | -12 | -290 | EDM -1.5 | 6.5 |
| CHI at VGK | VGK | 59% | 69% | -10 | -258 | VGK -1.5 | 5.5 |
| MTL at TOR | TOR | 53% | 52% | +1 | -118 | TOR -1.5 | 6.5 |
| FLA at CAR | CAR | 52% | 54% | -2 | -130 | CAR -1.5 | 6.5 |
| NYR at BOS | NYR | 52% | 49% | +3 | -105 | BOS -1.5 | 5.5 |
Where the model and the market disagree
The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win, but on our numbers the other side carries the value at the market's price:
EDM over VAN: we make it 59%, the market 71% (a 12-point gap).
VGK over CHI: we make it 59%, the market 69% (a 10-point gap).
Game by game
Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers: EDM 59%
The model has EDM at 59% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: venue (+4.6 points), power play (+4.0 points), head to head (+2.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-1.8 points). The line is EDM -1.5, total 6.5. That is a 12-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| VAN | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
VAN starter: Kevin Lankinen (projected). VAN out: Thatcher Demko, Filip Chytil, Mackenzie MacEachern. EDM starter: Tristan Jarry. EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Alec Regula.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | shots on goal | 4 | 3.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Connor McDavid | assists | 1.4 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Leon Draisaitl | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Jake DeBrusk | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | shots on goal | 1.8 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Evan Bouchard | assists | 1.3 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Zach Hyman | shots on goal | 1.9 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights: VGK 59%
The model has VGK at 59% against a market price of 69%. What drives it: shot share (corsi) (+5.8 points), venue (+3.7 points), power play (+3.6 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.1 points). The line is VGK -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side more than we do; treat the pick as a lean.
| CHI | VGK | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 2 wins | 4 wins |
CHI starter: Spencer Knight (projected). CHI out: Connor Bedard. VGK starter: Carter Hart (projected).
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | shots on goal | 3.6 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Jack Eichel | assists | 1.1 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mark Stone | shots on goal | 2.4 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Anton Frondell | shots on goal | 3.7 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Reilly Smith | shots on goal | 2.5 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Patrick Kane | shots on goal | 2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs: TOR 53%
The model has TOR at 53% against a market price of 52%. What drives it: venue (+3.3 points), motivation (+1.5 points), penalty kill (+1.2 points). The case against is shot share (corsi) (-3.1 points). The line is TOR -1.5, total 6.5.
| MTL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 3 wins | 3 wins |
MTL starter: Jakub Dobes (projected). MTL out: Kaiden Guhle. TOR starter: Sergei Bobrovsky (projected). TOR out: Dakota Joshua, Max Domi.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | shots on goal | 2.6 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Cole Caufield | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Nick Suzuki | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nick Suzuki | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Juraj Slafkovský | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Darren Raddysh | shots on goal | 3.3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes: CAR 52%
The model has CAR at 52% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: venue (+7.4 points), shot share (corsi) (+6.0 points), power play (+2.8 points). The case against is shot margin (-2.0 points). The line is CAR -1.5, total 6.5.
| FLA | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
FLA starter: Jacob Markstrom (projected). FLA out: Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich. CAR starter: Brandon Bussi (projected). CAR out: Alexander Nikishin, Seth Jarvis.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | shots on goal | 3.5 | 2.5 or lower | 4.5 or higher |
| Brady Tkachuk | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Andrei Svechnikov | shots on goal | 3.1 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Sebastian Aho | shots on goal | 3 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| Logan Stankoven | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | shots on goal | 2.8 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
New York Rangers at Boston Bruins: NYR 52%
The model has NYR at 52% against a market price of 49%. What drives it: head to head (+1.7 points), penalty kill (+1.2 points), shot share (corsi) (+1.0 points). The case against is venue (-5.4 points). The line is BOS -1.5, total 5.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.
| NYR | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Margin per game (goals) | - | - |
| Home / road | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Streak | - | - |
| Last five (last season) | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Rest days | - | - |
| Head to head | 4 wins | 2 wins |
NYR starter: Igor Shesterkin (projected). NYR out: Adam Sykora. BOS starter: Jeremy Swayman (projected). BOS out: Matthew Poitras.
| Player | Stat | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie | shots on goal | 2.2 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | shots on goal | 2.9 | 2.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
| David Pastrnak | assists | 0.9 | 0.5 or lower | 1.5 or higher |
| Mika Zibanejad | shots on goal | 2.3 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Adam Fox | shots on goal | 1.7 | 1.5 or lower | 2.5 or higher |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | shots on goal | 2.7 | 1.5 or lower | 3.5 or higher |
Anytime goal list
| Player | Team | Expected | Our probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | EDM | 0.92 | 60% | -151 | -133 |
| Morgan Geekie | BOS | 0.84 | 57% | -131 | -117 |
| Cole Reinhardt | FLA | 0.78 | 54% | -118 | -106 |
| Mark Stone | VGK | 0.70 | 50.3% | -101 | +109 |
| William Nylander | TOR | 0.69 | 49.8% | +101 | +111 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | CAR | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Jake DeBrusk | VAN | 0.65 | 48% | +109 | +120 |
| Logan Stankoven | CAR | 0.62 | 46% | +116 | +128 |
| Reilly Smith | VGK | 0.60 | 45% | +122 | +133 |
| Cole Caufield | MTL | 0.53 | 41% | +143 | +156 |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
| Zach Hyman | EDM | 0.50 | 39% | +154 | +168 |
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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