NFL Week 9 Sunday Best Bets: SF 78%, SEA 77% and 5 More

13 games on the Week 9 Sunday slate, rebuilt this morning on the final injury reports and the lines as they stand. The firmest call is SF at 78% over LV; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 8. The NFL Model Card has 7 picks to win and 5 props. Season to date the model is 73-47 (60.8%) on graded picks.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The Sunday board

Early window

Late window

Sunday night

The pick is the more likely winner. The Card column is the game's leg on the NFL Model Card, with its call: Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes. Edge is our number minus the market's, in points.

The Model Card

The card stays live until kickoff: each leg locks at its own game's start at the price then on offer, and is graded in public on the Model Cards page.

Why each pick

San Francisco 49ers over Las Vegas Raiders, 78%, -485. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.4 points), point margin (+6.7 points), yards margin (+3.0 points). The case against is injuries (SF without Evans, Samuel, Aiyuk; LV: Porter day-to-day) (-4.3 points). The line SF -9.5, total 51.5. LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Thomas Booker IV. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, De'Zhaun Stribling, Deebo Samuel Sr., Mike Evans.

Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals, 77%, -455. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.0 points), point margin (+8.4 points), quarterback (+3.8 points). The case against is defense (-1.3 points). The line SEA -8.5, total 39.5. ARI starter: Gardner Minshew II. ARI out: Bam Knight, James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Jalen Brooks, Kendrick Bourne. SEA starter: Drew Lock. SEA out: Sam Darnold, Rashid Shaheed, Brandon Pili, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams. Crew: Clete Blakeman has been friendly to SEA (-1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-3 in 5 games). Crew: Clete Blakeman has been friendly to ARI (3-2 in 5 games with this referee, a win rate 19 points above its norm under others).

Kansas City Chiefs over New York Jets, 75%, -535. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+17.6 points), point margin (+5.9 points), motivation (+2.1 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.1 points). The market is 5 points firmer on it than we are; we still have KC as the more likely winner. The line KC -9.5, total 48.5. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Garrett Wilson, Joseph Ossai, Kiko Mauigoa, Max Mitchell, Nahshon Wright. KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: L'Jarius Sneed, Mansoor Delane, Omarr Norman-Lott, Peter Woods. Crew: Adrian Hill has been tough on KC (+1.5 flags a game versus its norm, 3-1 in 4 games).

Houston Texans over Los Angeles Chargers, 73%, -245. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+15.4 points), point margin (+8.2 points), offense (+4.4 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.7 points). We like this side 5 points more than the price does. The line HOU -6.0, total 40.5. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Jaylin Noel, Jaylin Smith, Reed Blankenship. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, David Njoku, Deane Leonard, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr.

Los Angeles Rams over Washington Commanders, 70%, -238. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.6 points), point margin (+6.5 points), yards margin (+3.5 points). The case against is turnovers (-2.9 points). The line LAR -4.5, total 47.5. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Dean Connors, Terrance Ferguson, Jaylen Watson, Joe Cardona. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Terry McLaurin.

Detroit Lions over Miami Dolphins, 70%, -305. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+20.3 points), point margin (+10.2 points), offense (+5.6 points). The case against is injuries (MIA without Baker; DET without Campbell, Reed, Pacheco; Brown day-to-day) (-5.4 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DET as the more likely winner. The line DET -6.5, total 49.5. DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Isiah Pacheco, Cade Mays, D.J. Reed, DJ Wonnum, Jack Campbell. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Darrell Baker Jr. Crew: Land Clark has been friendly to DET (-1.7 flags a game versus its norm, 3-0 in 3 games).

New York Giants over Philadelphia Eagles, 64%, -162. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: point margin (+8.5 points), EPA per play (+6.2 points), yards margin (+4.8 points). The case against is venue (-1.2 points). We like this side 5 points more than the price does. The line NYG -3.0, total 38.5. NYG starter: J.J. McCarthy. NYG out: Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr. PHI starter: Joe Milton. PHI out: Tank Bigsby, Britain Covey, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Jihaad Campbell.

The props card

Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better.

The tickets

The whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds, and the best of both. Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves.

Where we differ from the market

Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.

Injuries that move the number

Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up. These are the absences that move a game by 0.4 points or more.

Game by game

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons: CIN 60%

The model has CIN at 60% against a market price of 61%. What drives it: EPA per play (+9.9 points), point margin (+8.7 points), offense (+4.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.6 points). The line is CIN -3.0, total 52.5.

CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Andrei Iosivas, Erick All Jr., Cashius Howell, Kyle Dugger. ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr. ATL out: Brian Robinson Jr., Zachariah Branch, Anterio Thompson, Cameron Williams, Jalon Walker. Crew: Craig Wrolstad has been friendly to ATL (-2.0 flags a game versus its norm, 2-3 in 5 games).

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: KC 76%

The model has KC at 76% against a market price of 81%. What drives it: EPA per play (+17.6 points), point margin (+5.9 points), motivation (+2.1 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.1 points). The line is KC -9.5, total 48.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: KC is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Garrett Wilson, Joseph Ossai, Kiko Mauigoa, Max Mitchell, Nahshon Wright. KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: L'Jarius Sneed, Mansoor Delane, Omarr Norman-Lott, Peter Woods. Crew: Adrian Hill has been tough on KC (+1.5 flags a game versus its norm, 3-1 in 4 games).

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders: LAR 71%

The model has LAR at 71% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.6 points), point margin (+6.5 points), yards margin (+3.5 points). The case against is turnovers (-2.9 points). The line is LAR -4.5, total 47.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Dean Connors, Terrance Ferguson, Jaylen Watson, Joe Cardona. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Dyami Brown, Jaylin Lane, Terry McLaurin.

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins: DET 70%

The model has DET at 70% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: EPA per play (+20.3 points), point margin (+10.2 points), offense (+5.6 points). The case against is injuries (MIA without Baker; DET without Campbell, Reed, Pacheco; Brown day-to-day) (-5.4 points). The line is DET -6.5, total 49.5.

DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Isiah Pacheco, Cade Mays, D.J. Reed, DJ Wonnum, Jack Campbell. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Darrell Baker Jr. Crew: Land Clark has been friendly to DET (-1.7 flags a game versus its norm, 3-0 in 3 games).

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: NYG 64%

The model has NYG at 64% against a market price of 58%. What drives it: point margin (+8.5 points), EPA per play (+6.2 points), yards margin (+4.8 points). The case against is venue (-1.2 points). The line is NYG -3.0, total 38.5. That is a 6-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

NYG starter: J.J. McCarthy. NYG out: Cam Skattebo, Tyrone Tracy Jr. PHI starter: Joe Milton. PHI out: Tank Bigsby, Britain Covey, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Jihaad Campbell.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts: DAL 62%

The model has DAL at 62% against a market price of 67%. What drives it: point margin (+8.9 points), EPA per play (+5.2 points), offense (+4.7 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.9 points). The line is DAL -5.5, total 51.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: DAL is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Thompson, Malachi Lawrence. IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Alec Pierce, A.J. Haulcy, Akeem Davis-Gaither, Justin Walley. Crew: Clay Martin has been friendly to IND (-1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 0-4 in 4 games).

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: DEN 61%

The model has DEN at 61% against a market price of 56%. What drives it: EPA per play (+14.2 points), point margin (+3.8 points), pass rush (+2.1 points). The case against is yards margin (-3.7 points). The line is DEN -2.5, total 44.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: Brandon Jones, Eyioma Uwazurike, Kris Abrams-Draine. CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Jonathon Brooks, Xavier Legette, Akayleb Evans, Bobby Okereke, Brady Christensen.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints: NO 57%

The model has NO at 57% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: quarterback (+3.8 points), offense (+3.7 points), rest (+2.4 points). The case against is motivation (-3.1 points). The line is NO -3.0, total 42.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: NO is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

CLE starter: Shedeur Sanders. CLE out: Maliek Collins. NO starter: Tyler Shough. NO out: CJ Donaldson, Travis Etienne Jr. Crew: Shawn Hochuli has been friendly to CLE (-1.8 flags a game versus its norm, 3-2 in 5 games). Crew: Shawn Hochuli has been friendly to NO (-1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 0-4 in 4 games).

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers: HOU 73%

The model has HOU at 73% against a market price of 68%. What drives it: EPA per play (+15.4 points), point margin (+8.2 points), offense (+4.4 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.7 points). The line is HOU -6.0, total 40.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Jaylin Noel, Jaylin Smith, Reed Blankenship. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, David Njoku, Deane Leonard, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr.

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers: SF 78%

The model has SF at 78% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.4 points), point margin (+6.7 points), yards margin (+3.0 points). The case against is injuries (SF without Evans, Samuel, Aiyuk; LV: Porter day-to-day) (-4.3 points). The line is SF -9.5, total 51.5.

LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Thomas Booker IV. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, De'Zhaun Stribling, Deebo Samuel Sr., Mike Evans.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: SEA 76%

The model has SEA at 76% against a market price of 79%. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.0 points), point margin (+8.4 points), quarterback (+3.8 points). The case against is defense (-1.3 points). The line is SEA -8.5, total 39.5.

ARI starter: Gardner Minshew II. ARI out: Bam Knight, James Conner, Jeremiyah Love, Jalen Brooks, Kendrick Bourne. SEA starter: Drew Lock. SEA out: Sam Darnold, Rashid Shaheed, Brandon Pili, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams. Crew: Clete Blakeman has been friendly to SEA (-1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-3 in 5 games). Crew: Clete Blakeman has been friendly to ARI (3-2 in 5 games with this referee, a win rate 19 points above its norm under others).

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: NE 50.2%

The model has NE at 50.2% against a market price of 61%. What drives it: point margin (+2.4 points), quarterback (+1.8 points), yards margin (+1.8 points). The case against is turnovers (-3.7 points). The line is NE -3.5, total 44.5. That is an 11-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: NE is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Chris Brooks, Josh Whyle, Micah Parsons, Sean Rhyan, Travis Glover. NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown, Greg Van Roten. Crew: Alex Kemp has been friendly to GB (-1.7 flags a game versus its norm, 4-4 in 8 games). Crew: Alex Kemp has been friendly to NE (-1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 4-4 in 8 games).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears: CHI 62%

The model has CHI at 62% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: point margin (+4.0 points), offense (+3.5 points), yards margin (+2.8 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-3.0 points). The line is CHI -6.0, total 47.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: CHI is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

TB starter: Baker Mayfield. TB out: Jalen McMillan, Josh Hayes, Yaya Diaby. CHI starter: Caleb Williams. CHI out: Zavier Scott, Braxton Jones, Kentavius Street. Crew: Ron Torbert has been friendly to TB (-1.6 flags a game versus its norm, 2-2 in 4 games).

Anytime touchdown list

The NFL card record

16 NFL cards since Oct 1: legs 30-16, -3.39 units (-7.4% ROI) at one unit a leg, props 31-16. Every past card and every graded ticket is on the Model Cards page; the model's full record is on the record page.

Responsible play

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