NFL Week 8 Sunday Best Bets: CIN 81%, JAX 77% and 5 More

12 games on the Week 8 Sunday slate, rebuilt this morning on the final injury reports and the lines as they stand. The firmest call is CIN at 81% over TEN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 4. The NFL Model Card has 7 picks to win and 5 props. Season to date the model is 64-42 (60.4%) on graded picks.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The Sunday board

Early window

Late window

Sunday night

The pick is the more likely winner. The Card column is the game's leg on the NFL Model Card, with its call: Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes. Edge is our number minus the market's, in points.

The Model Card

The card stays live until kickoff: each leg locks at its own game's start at the price then on offer, and is graded in public on the Model Cards page.

Why each pick

Cincinnati Bengals over Tennessee Titans, 81%, -675. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+17.4 points), point margin (+7.3 points), offense (+4.6 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-1.1 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have CIN as the more likely winner. The line CIN -12.5, total 46.5. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Tyjae Spears, Carnell Tate, Dorian Mausi, Tommy Townsend. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Andrei Iosivas, Erick All Jr., Kyle Dugger. Crew: Brad Allen has been tough on CIN (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-5 in 6 games).

Jacksonville Jaguars over Indianapolis Colts, 77%, -500. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.1 points), point margin (+8.1 points), turnovers (+3.3 points). The case against is defense (-1.3 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have JAX as the more likely winner. The line JAX -10.0, total 46.5. IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Alec Pierce, Anthony Gould, Cam Taylor-Britt, Justin Walley. JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: Anton Harrison, Antonio Johnson. Crew: Adrian Hill has been friendly to JAX (-2.1 flags a game versus its norm, 0-5 in 5 games).

New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins, 72%, -310. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.0 points), point margin (+9.7 points), offense (+4.4 points). The case against is injuries (MIA: Brents day-to-day; NE: Brown, Elliss day-to-day) (-2.5 points). The line NE -7.0, total 43.5. NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Marcus Bryant. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Kadyn Proctor.

Los Angeles Rams over Los Angeles Chargers, 69%, -265. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.0 points), point margin (+9.2 points), recent form (+7.0 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.1 points). The line LAR -6.5, total 45.5. LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, Deane Leonard, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr., Kayode Awosika. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson, Joe Cardona, Myles Garrett.

Washington Commanders over Philadelphia Eagles, 69%, -258. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: recent form (+10.2 points), offense (+2.7 points), turnovers (+2.6 points). The case against is EPA per play (-1.5 points). The line WSH -6.0, total 40.5. PHI starter: Tanner McKee. PHI out: Dameon Pierce, Tank Bigsby, Britain Covey, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jaylin Lane, Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw.

Dallas Cowboys over Arizona Cardinals, 63%, -310. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: point margin (+10.1 points), EPA per play (+8.1 points), offense (+5.1 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.0 points). The market is 10 points firmer on it than we are; we still have DAL as the more likely winner. The line DAL -7.0, total 54.5. ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: James Conner, Jalen Brooks, Tip Reiman, Jon Gaines II, Walter Nolen III. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: KaVontae Turpin, Dee Winters, Jonathan Bullard, Marist Liufau. Crew: Ron Torbert has been friendly to ARI (+0.2 flags a game versus its norm, 3-3 in 6 games).

Buffalo Bills over Baltimore Ravens, 60%, -166. Play on the NFL card. What drives it: offense (+5.6 points), EPA per play (+5.5 points), point margin (+5.1 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.1 points). The line BUF -3.0, total 54.5. BAL starter: Lamar Jackson. BAL out: Adam Randall, Ethan Pocic, Jaylinn Hawkins, Jovaughn Gwyn, Olaivavega Ioane. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Tyrell Shavers, C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Crew: Clay Martin has been tough on BAL (+1.0 flags a game versus its norm, 0-4 in 4 games).

The props card

Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better.

The tickets

The whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds, and the best of both. Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves.

Where we differ from the market

Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.

Injuries that move the number

Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up. These are the absences that move a game by 0.4 points or more.

Game by game

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: CIN 81%

The model has CIN at 81% against a market price of 84%. What drives it: EPA per play (+17.4 points), point margin (+7.3 points), offense (+4.6 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-1.1 points). The line is CIN -12.5, total 46.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: CIN is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Tyjae Spears, Carnell Tate, Dorian Mausi, Tommy Townsend. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Andrei Iosivas, Erick All Jr., Kyle Dugger. Crew: Brad Allen has been tough on CIN (+1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-5 in 6 games).

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX 77%

The model has JAX at 77% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: EPA per play (+16.1 points), point margin (+8.1 points), turnovers (+3.3 points). The case against is defense (-1.3 points). The line is JAX -10.0, total 46.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: JAX is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Alec Pierce, Anthony Gould, Cam Taylor-Britt, Justin Walley. JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: Anton Harrison, Antonio Johnson. Crew: Adrian Hill has been friendly to JAX (-2.1 flags a game versus its norm, 0-5 in 5 games).

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: DAL 63%

The model has DAL at 63% against a market price of 73%. What drives it: point margin (+10.1 points), EPA per play (+8.1 points), offense (+5.1 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.0 points). The line is DAL -7.0, total 54.5. That is a 9-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: DAL is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

ARI starter: Jacoby Brissett. ARI out: James Conner, Jalen Brooks, Tip Reiman, Jon Gaines II, Walter Nolen III. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: KaVontae Turpin, Dee Winters, Jonathan Bullard, Marist Liufau. Crew: Ron Torbert has been friendly to ARI (+0.2 flags a game versus its norm, 3-3 in 6 games).

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: BUF 60%

The model has BUF at 60% against a market price of 60%. What drives it: offense (+5.6 points), EPA per play (+5.5 points), point margin (+5.1 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.1 points). The line is BUF -3.0, total 54.5.

BAL starter: Lamar Jackson. BAL out: Adam Randall, Ethan Pocic, Jaylinn Hawkins, Jovaughn Gwyn, Olaivavega Ioane. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Tyrell Shavers, C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Crew: Clay Martin has been tough on BAL (+1.0 flags a game versus its norm, 0-4 in 4 games).

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT 55%

The model has PIT at 55% against a market price of 63%. What drives it: EPA per play (+6.3 points), point margin (+5.1 points), offense (+3.0 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.0 points). The line is PIT -3.5, total 38.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: PIT is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Kalia Davis. PIT starter: Aaron Rodgers. PIT out: Brandin Echols, Doneiko Slaughter, Sebastian Joseph-Day. Crew: Alex Kemp has been friendly to CLE (-1.9 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: NYJ 54%

The model has NYJ at 54% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: EPA per play (+5.0 points), home/road split (+0.9 points), recent form (+0.6 points). The case against is offense (-4.7 points). The line is NYJ -1.5, total 46.5.

LV starter: Kirk Cousins. LV out: Carter Runyon, Patrick Johnson. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: David Bailey, Joseph Ossai, Kiko Mauigoa, Max Mitchell, T'Vondre Sweat. Crew: John Hussey has been tough on LV (+1.8 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games).

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB 52%

The model has TB at 52% against a market price of 53%. What drives it: EPA per play (+5.8 points), home/road split (+2.6 points), point margin (+2.2 points). The case against is motivation (-2.9 points). The line is TB -1.5, total 43.5.

ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr.. ATL out: Brian Robinson Jr., Beaux Collins, Anterio Thompson, Billy Bowman Jr., Divine Deablo. TB starter: Baker Mayfield. TB out: Emeka Egbuka, Christian Rozeboom, Josh Hayes.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: MIN 52%

The model has MIN at 52% against a market price of 40%. What drives it: point margin (+4.3 points), efficiency (EPA) (+4.0 points), injuries (DET without White, Pacheco, Joseph) (+2.0 points). The case against is offense (-7.0 points). The line is DET -3.0, total 46.5. That is a 12-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

MIN starter: Kyler Murray. DET starter: Jared Goff. DET out: Isiah Pacheco, Ben Bartch, Devin White, Kerby Joseph. Crew: Craig Wrolstad has been tough on DET (+1.4 flags a game versus its norm, 3-2 in 5 games).

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: LAR 69%

The model has LAR at 69% against a market price of 70%. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.0 points), point margin (+9.2 points), recent form (+7.0 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-2.1 points). The line is LAR -6.5, total 45.5.

LAC starter: Justin Herbert. LAC out: Brenen Thompson, Deane Leonard, Denzel Perryman, Derwin James Jr., Kayode Awosika. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Terrance Ferguson, Joe Cardona, Myles Garrett.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: NE 72%

The model has NE at 72% against a market price of 73%. What drives it: EPA per play (+21.0 points), point margin (+9.7 points), offense (+4.4 points). The case against is injuries (MIA: Brents day-to-day; NE: Brown, Elliss day-to-day) (-2.5 points). The line is NE -7.0, total 43.5.

NE starter: Drake Maye. NE out: TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Marcus Bryant. MIA starter: Malik Willis. MIA out: Kadyn Proctor.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: KC 59%

The model has KC at 59% against a market price of 51%. What drives it: EPA per play (+8.4 points), injuries (DEN without Jones, Harvey, Hufanga; Waddle, Allen day-to-day; KC without Sneed; Delane day-to-day) (+7.5 points), point margin (+5.5 points). The case against is venue (-1.5 points). The line is KC -1.5, total 40.5. That is an 8-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Brashard Smith, L'Jarius Sneed, Mansoor Delane, Omarr Norman-Lott. DEN starter: Bo Nix. DEN out: RJ Harvey, Tyler Badie, Jonah Elliss, Talanoa Hufanga.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: WSH 69%

The model has WSH at 69% against a market price of 69%. What drives it: recent form (+10.2 points), offense (+2.7 points), turnovers (+2.6 points). The case against is EPA per play (-1.5 points). The line is WSH -6.0, total 40.5.

PHI starter: Tanner McKee. PHI out: Dameon Pierce, Tank Bigsby, Britain Covey, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks. WSH starter: Jayden Daniels. WSH out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jaylin Lane, Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw.

Anytime touchdown list

The NFL card record

13 NFL cards since Oct 1: legs 23-14, -3.52 units (-9.5% ROI) at one unit a leg, props 25-13. Every past card and every graded ticket is on the Model Cards page; the model's full record is on the record page.

Responsible play

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