NFL2026-10-11NFL Week 5 Sunday and Monday Best Bets: 14 Games, the Two Picks the Market Hates, the Card, Every Prop and the Touchdown Board
By Verdexed Analytics
Fourteen games left in Week 5, starting with a 9:30 AM ET kickoff in London and ending Monday night at SoFi. The model has a number on every one of them, and this is the whole slate in one place: the board with a call on each game, the two games where our number and the market are nowhere near each other, the Model Card and its three tickets, the props at the lines the model likes, the player lines it prices across all fourteen games, and the anytime touchdown board. The numbers are Saturday night's; the card re-chooses its unstarted legs every fifteen minutes until each kickoff, and the inactives at 11:30 AM ET can move a line, so the live card and the NFL predictions page are the final word.
Where we stand: the model is 39-25 on graded regular-season picks (60.9%), 11-5 last week, and the Thursday pick (Dallas) lost. Picks at 60% or better are 22-12 this season. The Model Card is 6-4 on game legs and 7-4 on props since it started, and it has yet to cash a full ticket.
The board
Call words: a Lock is a pick at 65% or better, a Play is 58% to 64%, a Lean is 55% to 57%, and a Pass is a coin flip the model would not pay a price for. Edge is our number minus the market's, on the pick.
| Game (kick, ET) | Call | Pick | Verdexed | Market | Edge | Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX (9:30 AM, London) | Lock | JAX | 75% | 77% | -2 | JAX -7.5 | 41.5 |
| MIN at NO (1:00) | Lock | MIN | 67% | 54% | +12 | MIN -2.5 | 41.5 |
| HOU at TEN (1:00) | Lock | HOU | 66% | 74% | -8 | HOU -7 | 37.5 |
| CLE at NYJ (1:00) | Lock | CLE | 66% | 45% | +21 | NYJ -2.5 | 39.5 |
| DET at ARI (4:25) | Play | DET | 65% | 69% | -4 | DET -5.5 | 54.5 |
| CIN at MIA (1:00) | Play | CIN | 63% | 75% | -12 | CIN -7 | 43.5 |
| DEN at LAC (4:05) | Play | DEN | 61% | 63% | -2 | DEN -3.5 | 41.5 |
| NYG at WSH (1:00) | Lean | WSH | 57% | 61% | -4 | WSH -3.5 | 41.5 |
| LV at NE (1:00) | Lean | NE | 56% | 63% | -7 | NE -3.5 | 45.5 |
| BUF at LAR (Mon 8:15) | Lean | LAR | 56% | 62% | -6 | LAR -3.5 | 54.5 |
| BAL at ATL (Sun 8:20) | Lean | ATL | 55% | 61% | -6 | ATL -3 | 43.5 |
| IND at PIT (1:00) | Pass | PIT | 54% | 56% | -2 | PIT -2.5 | 43.5 |
| CHI at GB (1:00) | Pass | CHI | 54% | 53% | +1 | CHI -1.5 | 46.5 |
| SF at SEA (4:25) | Pass | SEA | 52% | 59% | -7 | SEA -3 | 45.5 |
Three of the four Locks are also the market's favourites, and that is the point: the model is not here to be contrarian, it is here to be right. The places to look twice are the two games where it disagrees with the price by double digits, and the two where the market is far surer than we are.
The two games the market will argue with
Cleveland at the Jets: Browns 66%, the market has the Jets by 2.5
This is the biggest gap on the board, 21 points, and it is the one everybody will push back on. The case for Cleveland is three things: the Jets are missing Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell (+5.9 points on its own, with Braelon Allen carrying the backfield after 32 of 34 snaps last week), Cleveland's efficiency per play has been better than New York's all season (+5.3), and the Browns arrive on ten days of rest against a team on seven. Cleveland is 3-1 on a three-game winning streak; the Jets are 1-3 and have lost three straight. The only thing the model holds against the Browns is the defensive matchup (-1.4).
The honest risk: Deshaun Watson is the Cleveland starter with Dillon Gabriel out, and the quarterback read is not among the drivers, so the whole edge is the roster and the trend. Cleveland's margin per game is -3.5, worse than New York's -2.0, which is why the market has the Jets. When the model and the market are twenty points apart, the model is usually the one that is off by more, but last week's Cleveland disagreement (the model took the Browns against Pittsburgh at 53%) landed. At +114 you are being paid to find out.
Minnesota at New Orleans: Vikings 67%, the market has it near a coin flip
A 12-point gap, and this one is a cleaner argument. The Vikings are 4-0 with the best efficiency per play on the slate (+15.7) and a point margin the Saints cannot match (+10.2). Kyler Murray starts for Minnesota, back from the concussion that cost him time in September; Tyler Shough starts for a 1-3 Saints team. Justin Jefferson is questionable and has a chance to play after practising this week; the model projects him for 4.9 catches and 62 yards, so it is not counting on a big day from him. The case against is the Saints' defence (-5.4), which has been better than their record.
At -130 the market makes Minnesota a slight favourite. On our number, -130 is worth about 56%; we have them at 67%. That is the best price on a Lock this week.
Where the market is surer than we are
Cincinnati is -355 at Miami and the market has them at 75%; the model has 63%. Joe Burrow against Malik Willis should be a mismatch, and the efficiency gap says so (+16.5), but the model's quarterback read is oddly flat here (-2.2, Willis has rated well in relief) and a 0-4 Dolphins team at home is still a 12-point dog in our book, not a 25-point one. The pick is Cincinnati; the price is not.
Houston is -345 at Tennessee (market 74%, model 66%). Two 0-4 teams, and the model's favourite number on the slate for efficiency (+25.3 per play) still only gets Houston to 66%. The pick is Houston; laying -345 is not a play.
New England (-192, market 63%, model 56%) is without A.J. Brown and Mack Hollins (-5.1), and Seattle (-162, market 59%, model 52%) is a coin flip in our book with Zach Charbonnet out and the 49ers missing Aiyuk and Bosa. Both are Passes at the price.
Window by window
London, 9:30 AM ET: Eagles at Jaguars
The firmest number of the week, Jacksonville at 75%. Philadelphia plays without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown; Will Shipley gets the backfield. The model's efficiency read (+13.8) and point margin (+9.3) both lean Jacksonville, the injuries add +7.2 on their own, and Trevor Lawrence has been the steadier of the two quarterbacks this season. At -410 the price is fair, not generous; the leg is on the card because the number is the number. Ron Torbert's crew has been friendly to Philadelphia (7-0 under him), which is the one thing in the Eagles' favour.
The 1 PM window
Eight games. Minnesota and Cleveland are the two with value, above. Houston and Cincinnati are Plays that the market prices like Locks. Washington at home to the Giants is a Lean: Jayden Daniels against Jameis Winston, Stefon Diggs out for Washington, and Clete Blakeman's crew (friendly to Washington, 3-0; tough on New York, 1-3). New England is a Lean the model would not pay -192 for. Pittsburgh over Indianapolis is a coin flip the market also sees as one; Aaron Rodgers projects for 262 yards against a Colts team missing Darius Slayton, and Pittsburgh is without Michael Pittman Jr. Chicago at Green Bay is the game the model likes more than the market by a point: Caleb Williams against Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs out for Green Bay, D'Andre Swift projected for 91 yards on the ground, and Clay Martin's crew friendly to Chicago (4-1). At -122 it is a coin flip, so a Pass as a bet and a great watch.
The late window
Denver at the Chargers (4:05) is a Play at 61%, with Los Angeles 0-4 and Denver ahead on efficiency per play (+10) and point margin (+5.1). Detroit at Arizona (4:25) is the scoring game of the day: a 54.5 total, Jared Goff projected for 326 passing yards, Jacoby Brissett for 284, and Marvin Harrison Jr. out for the Cardinals on the day it emerged he is being traded. Detroit at 65% is a Play; Carl Cheffers' crew has been tough on Arizona (1-4). San Francisco at Seattle (4:25) is a Pass: 52% Seattle, with the model's quarterback read leaning Purdy and Emanuel Wilson the projected lead back for Seattle with Charbonnet and Price out.
Sunday night: Ravens at Falcons
Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley starts, which is why a Baltimore team with the better efficiency numbers all season (-17.4 points against the pick, the biggest counter-signal on the slate) is the model's underdog. Atlanta at 55% is a Lean carried by the market, not by the model's own read, so it stays off the card. The props are the interest here: Bijan Robinson over 60.5 rushing yards is on the props card at 66%, and Derrick Henry projects for 70 on the ground against a Falcons front missing Za'Darius Smith and James Pearce Jr.
Monday night: Bills at Rams
Rams 56%, the market 62%, a 54.5 total. Matthew Stafford projects for 296 passing yards and Kyren Williams for 77 on the ground; Josh Allen projects for 230 through the air and 32 on the ground, James Cook for 77. Buffalo's offence is the better unit (-5.0 against the pick), the Rams' efficiency per play and third-down work carry the number. A Lean, not a Play, and no leg on the card.
The Model Card
Seven legs, posted Saturday at 11 AM ET and live until each kickoff. The legs are the picks most likely to win, not the best prices; the parlay is the whole card as one ticket.
| Leg | Call | Game | Price | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Lock | PHI at JAX | -395 | 75% |
| MIN | Lock | MIN at NO | -130 | 67% |
| HOU | Lock | HOU at TEN | -345 | 66% |
| CLE | Lock | CLE at NYJ | +114 | 66% |
| DET | Play | DET at ARI | -258 | 65% |
| CIN | Play | CIN at MIA | -355 | 63% |
| DEN | Play | DEN at LAC | -192 | 61% |
| Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| The card | JAX, MIN, HOU, CLE, DET, CIN, DEN | +1555 | 6% |
| Props | Smith-Njigba, Gibbs, Robinson, Burrow, Goff | +653 | 13% |
| Best of both | JAX, MIN, HOU, Smith-Njigba, Gibbs, Robinson | +822 | 10% |
The best-of-both ticket pairs the three strongest sides with three skill-player overs and keeps a quarterback's passing over away from his own side on purpose (a team that wins comfortably runs the clock out). The props ticket is the better of the two parlays on our numbers.
The props card
Five overs at lines where the model gives the over at least 65%, one per player, two per game at most.
| Player | Call | Prop | Line | Our projection | Over probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | Target | Receptions | over 4.5 | 6.0 | 71% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | Target | Rushing yards | over 80.5 | 104.9 | 66% |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | Target | Rushing yards | over 60.5 | 78.8 | 66% |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | Target | Passing yards | over 256.5 | 295.3 | 65% |
| Jared Goff (DET) | Target | Passing yards | over 283.5 | 326.3 | 65% |
Gibbs is the one that does the heavy lifting: 105 projected rushing yards against an Arizona front, in a 54.5-total game, and he leads the anytime touchdown board too.
Player lines across the slate
The model prices every line two ways: the number at or below which the over is a play, and the number at or above which the under is one, both at 57%. In between, leave it. These are the headline players; the full list for every game is on the Week 5 board.
| Player | Stat | Call | Our projection | Over is a play at | Under is a play at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | Passing yards | Lean | 326.3 | 301.5 or lower | 334.5 or higher |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | Passing yards | Lean | 296.0 | 273.5 or lower | 303.5 or higher |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | Passing yards | Lean | 295.3 | 272.5 or lower | 302.5 or higher |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI) | Passing yards | Lean | 284.2 | 262.5 or lower | 291.5 or higher |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | Passing yards | Lean | 262.0 | 242.5 or lower | 268.5 or higher |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | Passing yards | Lean | 252.1 | 232.5 or lower | 258.5 or higher |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | Passing yards | Lean | 247.0 | 228.5 or lower | 253.5 or higher |
| Drake Maye (NE) | Passing yards | Lean | 242.0 | 223.5 or lower | 248.5 or higher |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | Passing yards | Lean | 230.2 | 212.5 or lower | 236.5 or higher |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | Passing yards | Lean | 163.3 | 150.5 or lower | 167.5 or higher |
| Tyler Huntley (BAL) | Passing yards | Lean | 155.2 | 143.5 or lower | 159.5 or higher |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | Rushing yards | Lean | 104.9 | 89.5 or lower | 106.5 or higher |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | Rushing yards | Lean | 91.1 | 77.5 or lower | 92.5 or higher |
| Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) | Rushing yards | Lean | 86.3 | 73.5 or lower | 87.5 or higher |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | Rushing yards | Lean | 81.5 | 69.5 or lower | 82.5 or higher |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | Rushing yards | Lean | 78.8 | 67.5 or lower | 80.5 or higher |
| James Cook III (BUF) | Rushing yards | Lean | 76.9 | 65.5 or lower | 78.5 or higher |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | Rushing yards | Lean | 76.7 | 65.5 or lower | 78.5 or higher |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | Rushing yards | Lean | 76.3 | 65.5 or lower | 77.5 or higher |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | Rushing yards | Lean | 69.5 | 59.5 or lower | 70.5 or higher |
| Jayden Daniels (WSH) | Rushing yards | Lean | 47.5 | 34.5 or lower | 46.5 or higher |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | Receiving yards | Lean | 86.6 | 71.5 or lower | 87.5 or higher |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | Receiving yards | Lean | 84.5 | 70.5 or lower | 85.5 or higher |
| Chris Olave (NO) | Receiving yards | Lean | 81.0 | 67.5 or lower | 81.5 or higher |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | Receiving yards | Lean | 80.6 | 66.5 or lower | 81.5 or higher |
| Drake London (ATL) | Receiving yards | Lean | 79.8 | 66.5 or lower | 80.5 or higher |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | Receiving yards | Lean | 77.8 | 64.5 or lower | 78.5 or higher |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | Receptions | Lean | 7.9 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | Receptions | Lean | 7.2 | 6.5 or lower | 8.5 or higher |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | Receptions | Lean | 7.1 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Chris Olave (NO) | Receptions | Lean | 6.6 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | Receptions | Lean | 6.4 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | Receptions | Lean | 6.3 | 5.5 or lower | 7.5 or higher |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | Receptions | Lean | 6.2 | 5.5 or lower | 6.5 or higher |
Two lines worth a second look because of who is missing: Trey McBride and Michael Wilson in Arizona with Marvin Harrison Jr. gone (7.9 and 7.1 catches projected), and Garrett Wilson with the Jets' backfield thinned (7.2 catches, 81 yards). Jalen Hurts' passing projection (163) is the lowest of any full-time starter on the slate, with Smith, Brown and Barkley all out; the under is the play from 167.5 up.
Anytime touchdown board
| Player | Call | Team | Expected TDs | Probability | Fair price | Take at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Target | DET | 1.48 | 77% | -339 | -275 |
| Kyren Williams | Lean | LAR | 1.06 | 65% | -189 | -164 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Lean | SEA | 0.92 | 60% | -151 | -133 |
| Bijan Robinson | Lean | ATL | 0.85 | 57% | -134 | -119 |
| D'Andre Swift | Lean | CHI | 0.85 | 57% | -134 | -119 |
| Jonathan Taylor | Lean | IND | 0.80 | 55% | -123 | -110 |
| Josh Allen | Pass | BUF | 0.74 | 52% | -110 | +101 |
| Christian Watson | Pass | GB | 0.74 | 52% | -110 | +101 |
| Chase Brown | Pass | CIN | 0.68 | 49% | +103 | +114 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Pass | DET | 0.67 | 49% | +105 | +116 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Pass | JAX | 0.66 | 48% | +107 | +118 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Pass | NE | 0.63 | 47% | +114 | +125 |
Take at is the worst price the model would pay. Last week the top seven on this board all scored and the tail did not, which is the pattern to respect: Gibbs is a Target, the next five are plays only at the listed price or better, and everyone from Allen down is a plus-money shot or nothing.
Injuries that move a number
Philadelphia without Barkley, Smith and Brown is +7.2 points toward Jacksonville. The Jets without Hall and Mitchell is +5.9 toward Cleveland. New England without A.J. Brown and Hollins is -5.1 against the Patriots pick. Washington without Diggs is -4.7 against Washington. Houston without Tank Dell is -1.9 against Houston. Pittsburgh without Pittman and Indianapolis without Pierce roughly cancel (+1.6 Pittsburgh). Seattle without Charbonnet and San Francisco without Aiyuk net -1.7 against Seattle. Lamar Jackson's absence is handled through the quarterback rule rather than the injury line: with a changed starter the number leans on the market, which is why Atlanta is 55% and not more.
The record
Graded regular-season picks since September 1: 39-25 (60.9%), Brier score 0.231; picks at 60% or better are 22-12. Week 4 went 11-5; in the five games where the model's own read and the market disagreed, the model's side won four. The Model Card is 6-4 on game legs and 7-4 on props with no full ticket cashed yet, and the week's board, every prop and the ledger are graded in public on the record page and the NFL accuracy page.
Responsible play
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