NFL Week 10 Sunday Best Bets: JAX 83%, LAR 80% and 5 More

11 games on the Week 10 Sunday slate, rebuilt this morning on the final injury reports and the lines as they stand. The firmest call is JAX at 83% over TEN; the model and the market are 3 points or more apart on 5. The NFL Model Card has 7 picks to win and 5 props. Season to date the model is 86-49 (63.7%) on graded picks.

Every number here is the model's own: win probabilities from the point-in-time model blended with the market, the drivers from its feature breakdown, the player lines from the same projections that build the DFS slates. A player line is the point where our distribution gives that side 57%: the over is a play at that line or lower, the under at that line or higher, at -120 or better.

The Sunday board

Early window

Late window

Sunday night

The pick is the more likely winner. The Card column is the game's leg on the NFL Model Card, with its call: Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes. Edge is our number minus the market's, in points.

The Model Card

The card stays live until kickoff: each leg locks at its own game's start at the price then on offer, and is graded in public on the Model Cards page.

Why each pick

Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans, 83%, -700. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.8 points), point margin (+9.1 points), offense (+3.9 points). The case against is defense (-1.6 points). The line JAX -10.5, total 46.5. JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: B.J. Green II, Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig, Jessie Bates III. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Carnell Tate, Anthony Hill Jr., Cody Barton, James Williams Sr., Peter Skoronski. Crew: Alex Moore has been tough on JAX (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals, 80%, -520. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+18.7 points), point margin (+8.4 points), yards margin (+2.6 points). The case against is injuries (ARI without Wilson, Wingard; Melton day-to-day; LAR without Nacua; Garrett, Curl day-to-day) (-2.7 points). The line LAR -9.5, total 38.5. LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Jordan Whittington, Puka Nacua, Terrance Ferguson, Steve Avila. ARI starter: Carson Beck. ARI out: Gardner Minshew II, Jalen Brooks, Michael Wilson, Hjalte Froholdt, Jon Gaines II.

Buffalo Bills over New York Jets, 79%, -455. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+20.0 points), point margin (+9.0 points), offense (+4.7 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.0 points). The line BUF -8.5, total 51.5. BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Tyrell Shavers, Spencer Brown. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Kiko Mauigoa, Max Mitchell, Trevin Wallace.

Seattle Seahawks over Las Vegas Raiders, 72%, -285. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.7 points), point margin (+7.8 points), yards margin (+4.3 points). The case against is offense (-2.6 points). The line SEA -6.5, total 40.5. SEA starter: Drew Lock. SEA out: Sam Darnold, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams, Quenton Nelson, Terrion Arnold. LV starter: Fernando Mendoza. Crew: Brad Allen has been tough on LV (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

San Francisco 49ers over Dallas Cowboys, 69%, -218. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.6 points), point margin (+8.5 points), yards margin (+3.4 points). The case against is injuries (DAL without Ferguson; Bland, Porter day-to-day; SF without Evans, Halton, Aiyuk; Green, Lenoir day-to-day) (-3.5 points). We like this side 4 points more than the price does. The line SF -4.5, total 55.5. SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, C.J. West, Gracen Halton, Nate Hobbs. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Tyler Goodson, Jonathan Mingo, Jake Ferguson, Devin Moore, Donovan Ezeiruaku.

Houston Texans over Cleveland Browns, 67%, -225. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.0 points), point margin (+6.7 points), offense (+5.2 points). The case against is motivation (-3.0 points). The line HOU -4.5, total 40.5. HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Jaylin Noel, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brevin Jordan. CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Michael Burton, Ronnie Hickman.

Kansas City Chiefs over Atlanta Falcons, 65%, -175. Lock on the NFL card. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.3 points), point margin (+11.0 points), yards margin (+3.7 points). The case against is injuries (ATL without Deablo, Robinson, Walker; Dexter, Pearce day-to-day; KC without Walker; Delane day-to-day) (-6.1 points). We like this side 4 points more than the price does. The line KC -3.0, total 47.5. KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Kenneth Walker III, Jaylon Moore, Peter Woods. ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr. ATL out: Brian Robinson Jr., Zachariah Branch, Divine Deablo, Jalon Walker, Samson Ebukam.

The props card

Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better.

The tickets

The whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds, and the best of both. Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves.

Where we differ from the market

Our side is worth a look at the current price on these: we make the pick this much more likely than the market does.

The market is more confident than we are on these. We still expect the favourite to win; on our numbers the price is a little rich.

Injuries that move the number

Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up. These are the absences that move a game by 0.4 points or more.

Game by game

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: JAX 83%

The model has JAX at 83% against a market price of 84%. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.8 points), point margin (+9.1 points), offense (+3.9 points). The case against is defense (-1.6 points). The line is JAX -10.5, total 46.5.

JAX starter: Trevor Lawrence. JAX out: B.J. Green II, Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig, Jessie Bates III. TEN starter: Cam Ward. TEN out: Carnell Tate, Anthony Hill Jr., Cody Barton, James Williams Sr., Peter Skoronski. Crew: Alex Moore has been tough on JAX (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: BUF 79%

The model has BUF at 79% against a market price of 79%. What drives it: EPA per play (+20.0 points), point margin (+9.0 points), offense (+4.7 points). The case against is home/road split (-1.0 points). The line is BUF -8.5, total 51.5.

BUF starter: Josh Allen. BUF out: Tyrell Shavers, Spencer Brown. NYJ starter: Geno Smith. NYJ out: Kiko Mauigoa, Max Mitchell, Trevin Wallace.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: HOU 67%

The model has HOU at 67% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.0 points), point margin (+6.7 points), offense (+5.2 points). The case against is motivation (-3.0 points). The line is HOU -4.5, total 40.5.

HOU starter: C.J. Stroud. HOU out: David Montgomery, Jawhar Jordan, Jaylin Noel, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brevin Jordan. CLE starter: Deshaun Watson. CLE out: Michael Burton, Ronnie Hickman.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons: KC 65%

The model has KC at 65% against a market price of 61%. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.3 points), point margin (+11.0 points), yards margin (+3.7 points). The case against is injuries (ATL without Deablo, Robinson, Walker; Dexter, Pearce day-to-day; KC without Walker; Delane day-to-day) (-6.1 points). The line is KC -3.0, total 47.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

KC starter: Patrick Mahomes. KC out: Kenneth Walker III, Jaylon Moore, Peter Woods. ATL starter: Michael Penix Jr. ATL out: Brian Robinson Jr., Zachariah Branch, Divine Deablo, Jalon Walker, Samson Ebukam.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: IND 61%

The model has IND at 61% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: EPA per play (+4.3 points), offense (+3.5 points), point margin (+2.0 points). The case against is recent form (-8.3 points). The line is IND -4.5, total 37.5. That is a 5-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: IND is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

MIA starter: Kyle McCord. MIA out: Malik Willis, Chris Bell, Jared Wayne, Aaron Brewer, Darrell Baker Jr. IND starter: Daniel Jones. IND out: Alec Pierce, Mo Alie-Cox, Will Mallory, Akeem Davis-Gaither, Jalen Travis. Crew: Carl Cheffers has been tough on IND (+2.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-4 in 5 games).

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: GB 60%

The model has GB at 60% against a market price of 57%. What drives it: EPA per play (+15.6 points), offense (+4.6 points), venue (+2.7 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-3.3 points). The line is GB -2.5, total 42.5. That is a 3-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

MIN starter: Kirk Cousins. MIN out: Kyler Murray, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson, Blake Cashman, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins. GB starter: Jordan Love. GB out: Josh Jacobs, Josh Whyle, Micah Parsons, Sean Rhyan, Warren Brinson.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: NO 50.4%

The model has NO at 50.4% against a market price of 54%. What drives it: pass rush (+3.7 points), injuries (NO: Etienne, Emerson day-to-day; CAR without Okereke, Jackson, Horn; Lee, Phillips day-to-day) (+2.6 points), home/road split (+1.1 points). The case against is EPA per play (-3.5 points). The line is NO -1.5, total 48.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: NO is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

CAR starter: Bryce Young. CAR out: Jonathon Brooks, Bobby Okereke, Brady Christensen, Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson. NO starter: Tyler Shough. NO out: CJ Donaldson, Christen Miller, Erik McCoy, Taliese Fuaga. Crew: Shawn Smith has been friendly to CAR (-1.1 flags a game versus its norm, 1-2 in 3 games).

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: LAR 80%

The model has LAR at 80% against a market price of 80%. What drives it: EPA per play (+18.7 points), point margin (+8.4 points), yards margin (+2.6 points). The case against is injuries (ARI without Wilson, Wingard; Melton day-to-day; LAR without Nacua; Garrett, Curl day-to-day) (-2.7 points). The line is LAR -9.5, total 38.5.

LAR starter: Matthew Stafford. LAR out: Davante Adams, Jordan Whittington, Puka Nacua, Terrance Ferguson, Steve Avila. ARI starter: Carson Beck. ARI out: Gardner Minshew II, Jalen Brooks, Michael Wilson, Hjalte Froholdt, Jon Gaines II.

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders: SEA 72%

The model has SEA at 72% against a market price of 71%. What drives it: EPA per play (+22.7 points), point margin (+7.8 points), yards margin (+4.3 points). The case against is offense (-2.6 points). The line is SEA -6.5, total 40.5.

SEA starter: Drew Lock. SEA out: Sam Darnold, Charles Cross, Leonard Williams, Quenton Nelson, Terrion Arnold. LV starter: Fernando Mendoza. Crew: Brad Allen has been tough on LV (+1.2 flags a game versus its norm, 2-1 in 3 games).

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys: SF 69%

The model has SF at 69% against a market price of 66%. What drives it: EPA per play (+19.6 points), point margin (+8.5 points), yards margin (+3.4 points). The case against is injuries (DAL without Ferguson; Bland, Porter day-to-day; SF without Evans, Halton, Aiyuk; Green, Lenoir day-to-day) (-3.5 points). The line is SF -4.5, total 55.5. That is a 4-point gap to the market, our side is worth a look at the current price.

SF starter: Brock Purdy. SF out: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, C.J. West, Gracen Halton, Nate Hobbs. DAL starter: Dak Prescott. DAL out: Tyler Goodson, Jonathan Mingo, Jake Ferguson, Devin Moore, Donovan Ezeiruaku.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: CIN 53%

The model has CIN at 53% against a market price of 62%. What drives it: offense (+5.5 points), point margin (+4.6 points), EPA per play (+4.0 points). The case against is efficiency (EPA) (-3.2 points). The line is CIN -3.5, total 49.5. That is a 10-point gap to the market, so the market likes this side even more than we do: CIN is still the more likely winner, but on our numbers the price is rich.

PIT starter: Aaron Rodgers. PIT out: Michael Pittman Jr., Sebastian Joseph-Day. CIN starter: Joe Burrow. CIN out: Andrei Iosivas, Brian Parker II, Cashius Howell, Jalen Davis, Kyle Dugger.

Anytime touchdown list

The NFL card record

19 NFL cards since Oct 1: legs 38-17, -1.37 units (-2.5% ROI) at one unit a leg, props 35-21. Every past card and every graded ticket is on the Model Cards page; the model's full record is on the record page.

Responsible play

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