NFL Picks for Week 2: The Model Went 9-7
By Verdexed Analytics
16 NFL games on Week 2. The model went 9-7 on the week. Season to date through September 21: 19-12 (61.3%), Brier 0.229.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before kickoff that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the NFL accuracy page.
The board
| Date | Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 17 | DET at BUF | BUF | 66% | 65% | 68% | BUF 41-31 | Hit |
| September 20 | MIA at SF | SF | 79% | 75% | 87% | SF 35-13 | Hit |
| September 20 | NO at BAL | BAL | 76% | 77% | 76% | NO 24-17 | Miss |
| September 20 | IND at KC | KC | 72% | 73% | 70% | KC 33-30 | Hit |
| September 20 | PHI at TEN | PHI | 70% | 69% | 73% | PHI 24-20 | Hit |
| September 20 | LV at LAC | LAC | 70% | 69% | 73% | LV 26-14 | Miss |
| September 20 | SEA at ARI | SEA | 69% | 78% | 64% | SEA 31-7 | Hit |
| September 20 | CLE at TB | TB | 66% | 59% | 78% | CLE 23-19 | Miss |
| September 20 | PIT at NE | NE | 65% | 64% | 67% | NE 20-3 | Hit |
| September 20 | CIN at HOU | HOU | 64% | 67% | 57% | CIN 20-6 | Miss |
| September 20 | GB at NYJ | GB | 63% | 63% | 62% | GB 20-17 | Hit |
| September 20 | JAX at DEN | JAX | 57% | 64% | 43% | DEN 20-13 | Miss |
| September 20 | WSH at DAL | DAL | 56% | 51% | 66% | DAL 37-20 | Hit |
| September 20 | CAR at ATL | ATL | 55% | 63% | 42% | CAR 34-3 | Miss |
| September 20 | MIN at CHI | CHI | 55% | 31% | 66% | MIN 9-3 | Miss |
| September 21 | NYG at LAR | LAR | 74% | 75% | 71% | LAR 28-6 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
MIN at CHI: the model took MIN (69%), the market CHI; the served pick was CHI and the pick missed. JAX at DEN: the model took JAX (64%), the market DEN; the served pick was JAX and the pick missed. CAR at ATL: the model took ATL (63%), the market CAR; the served pick was ATL and the pick missed. TB over CLE: model 59%, market 78%, a 19-point gap; the pick missed. DAL over WSH: model 51%, market 66%, a 15-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over ARI: model 78%, market 64%, a 14-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: SF 79% over MIA (hit), BAL 76% over NO (miss), LAR 74% over NYG (hit).
Season to date
Through September 21: 19-12 (61.3%) on graded regular-season picks since September 1, Brier score 0.229. Picks at 60% or better went 13-6.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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