Drew Rasmussen Puts the Rays One Win From the World Series With a 3-1 Game 5 Victory

Drew Rasmussen put the Tampa Bay Rays one win from the World Series. The right-hander allowed one run over seven innings on Sunday, and the Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field to take a 3-2 series lead. Game 6 is Monday at 8 p.m. ET (first pitch scheduled for 8:08) at Tropicana Field, with no travel day in between.

Freddy Peralta starts Game 6 for Tampa Bay. Cleveland, facing elimination, is planning a bullpen game after manager Stephen Vogt ruled out bringing Gavin Williams back on short rest. If the Rays close it out, they meet a rested Milwaukee Brewers team that swept the Dodgers in the NLCS and has Jacob Misiorowski lined up for Game 1.

How Rasmussen won Game 5

Rasmussen was efficient and in control from the start. He needed 95 pitches to get through seven innings, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out six. Cleveland did not get a runner into scoring position until the sixth, and when the Guardians threatened again in the seventh, Rasmussen stayed in and got the inning-ending double play. It was his second win of this postseason, and it was a sharp rebound from Game 1, when he stayed in one batter too long in a 7-3 Cleveland comeback.

The Rays did their damage early. Tampa Bay scored in each of the first three innings, with the leadoff hitter of the inning scoring every time. Yandy Díaz set the tone by leading off the game with a 109.2 mph double and later scored when Guardians rookie Parker Messick walked in a run with the bases loaded. Messick lasted only two innings, and the Rays finished with 12 hits.

Cleveland's only run came in the sixth on a defensive miscue: Jonathan Aranda bobbled a potential double-play ball, settled for the out at first, and Steven Kwan scored. Kwan was Cleveland's best player on the day in the field as well, throwing out Taylor Walls at the plate in the fourth and making a leaping catch on a Victor Mesa Jr. drive in the ninth that likely saved a run.

Game 5 pitching lines

Tampa Bay's bullpen covered the final two innings, allowing one hit and one walk. Tyler Wells struck out José Ramírez in the ninth, and closer Bryan Baker got Travis Bazzana to ground out to second for the final out. The workload split matters for Monday: Cleveland's bullpen has covered roughly 10 1/3 innings over the last two days, while the Rays' relievers threw only about 5 1/3 innings across Games 4 and 5.

How the series got here

The ALCS has swung back and forth, and two rain-related schedule changes have compressed the back half of it. Game 3 was moved to a 1 p.m. start to dodge weather, and Game 4 was postponed from Friday to Saturday, which is why Games 5, 6 and a possible Game 7 fall on consecutive days.

Game 6 pitching: Peralta against a Cleveland bullpen game

The Rays are handing the ball to Peralta, per the Tampa Bay Times. He was dominant in Game 2, throwing six shutout innings on four hits with six strikeouts in the 3-1 win that evened the series. One betting preview credits him with a 0.79 ERA across three postseason outings this October, so Tampa Bay has its most reliable starter of the playoffs going at home with a pennant on the line.

Cleveland has not formally named a starter. Vogt said the Guardians will use an opener, with right-hander Slade Cecconi a possibility to begin the game, and Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee both in line for significant roles. Vogt said a short-rest start from Williams is not an option, which keeps Williams lined up for a potential Game 7 on Tuesday.

That is the Guardians' must-win problem in one sentence: they need two straight wins on the road, they have to cover Game 6 with a bullpen that has carried a heavy load over the weekend, and they still need enough left behind Williams to survive Game 7. Cleveland's offense also has to solve Peralta after failing to score against him in Game 2.

Fantasy and betting angle

For DFS showdown players, Game 6 sets up as a lopsided pitching matchup. Peralta is the natural captain or MVP anchor on the Tampa Bay side, and Rays bats get a stream of relievers rather than one starter they see three times. Díaz, who has homered in Game 4 and opened Game 5 with a rocket, is the obvious leadoff stack piece. On the Cleveland side, Kwan's contact and on-base profile plays in a game the Guardians will try to win with small margins, and Ramírez remains the one Cleveland bat who can change a game with one swing.

The consensus market agrees with the setup. Sportsbooks opened Monday with the Rays as home favorites, generally in the range of -136 to -154 on the moneyline, with the Guardians between +113 and +129. Fanatics listed Tampa Bay at -145 and Cleveland at +120, and DraftKings had the Rays at -140 in an early snapshot. Prices will move once Cleveland confirms its opener.

Verdexed's model weighs exactly the factors in play here: the starting-pitcher gap between Peralta and a bullpen game, cumulative reliever fatigue from consecutive days, and home field. See Verdexed's MLB predictions page at /mlb/predictions for the model's current view, and the daily card at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-10-19. Bettors should be of legal betting age in their jurisdiction.

The World Series waiting room

The Brewers have been sitting since sweeping the Dodgers, and they have used the time to set up their rotation. Misiorowski is scheduled to start Game 1 on Friday, Oct. 23 at American Family Field, with first pitch at 8:08 p.m. ET. He will be working on 12 days between starts. The hard-throwing right-hander was not at his sharpest in the NLCS opener, allowing one run on five hits over 4 1/3 innings with five strikeouts, but the extended rest should have him at full strength.

For Tampa Bay, a win Monday would mean a third World Series appearance in franchise history, after 2008 and 2020. Neither franchise has won a title. A Rays win in six would also give Tampa Bay three days to reset, so Rasmussen and Peralta would both be in line for early starts in the World Series. A Game 7 would leave the AL champion with far less flexibility against a fully rested Milwaukee staff.

What's next

Game 6 is Monday at 8:08 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field on TBS and HBO Max. If Cleveland wins, Game 7 is Tuesday night at the same venue, with Williams expected to start for the Guardians. The World Series opens Friday in Milwaukee.

The takeaway: Tampa Bay holds every structural edge going into Monday, from the starting-pitcher matchup to bullpen rest to home field. In DFS showdowns, build around Peralta and Rays bats against Cleveland's relay of relievers, and if you are pricing World Series futures, account for the Rays being able to line up Rasmussen and Peralta only if they finish it in six.