Foster Griffin Gets ALCS Game 1 for Cleveland Because Nobody Else Is Rested, and Drew Rasmussen Is Waiting

The Cleveland Guardians will start left-hander Foster Griffin in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series on Monday night at Tropicana Field, manager Stephen Vogt announced Sunday. The Tampa Bay Rays counter with Drew Rasmussen, who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last start. First pitch is 8 p.m. Eastern on TBS and truTV.

The choice of Griffin is a product of the calendar more than a statement of preference. Cleveland needed five games to get past the Chicago White Sox in the Division Series, finishing with a comeback win led by Jose Ramirez on Saturday, while Tampa Bay swept the New York Yankees and has been resting for days. That asymmetry is the biggest factor in Game 1.

Why Griffin

Gavin Williams started Saturday's Game 5 and is not expected to be available until Thursday's Game 3. Parker Messick is lined up for Tuesday's Game 2. That left Vogt choosing among Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo, opener Daniel Espino and Griffin, and Griffin was one of the few pitchers on the staff who had not been stretched over the past week.

He has earned the ball. Griffin finished the regular season with a combined 15-6 record and a 3.60 ERA, and in Game 3 of the Division Series he came out of the bullpen to strike out seven over two and two-thirds innings in a 9-3 win. Expect a short leash anyway: Cleveland will want five innings at most before handing the game to a bullpen that has carried a heavy October workload.

Rasmussen's form

Rasmussen opened Tampa Bay's sweep of the Yankees with eight scoreless innings, 10 strikeouts and a no-hit bid into the eighth in a 1-0 win. His regular season was just as strong.

Rasmussen also has the benefit of extra rest after the sweep. That cuts both ways: rested pitchers sometimes come out with less sharp command, but a starter of his caliber with a full tank is the best-case scenario for Tampa Bay in an opener.

The rest question

Tampa Bay has had several days off; Cleveland played a decisive Game 5 on Saturday and flew to Florida. Historically, the debate over whether rest or rhythm matters more in October has never been settled, and each side has its examples. What is clear is that Cleveland's pitching staff is the more taxed of the two, and that matters most in the late innings of Game 1 and the middle games of the series.

The Rays' bullpen is fully rested. Cleveland's has been pushed through a five-game series. If Game 1 is close after six innings, that is a real edge for Tampa Bay.

Cleveland's counter is that its offense showed up when it mattered in Chicago. A team that wins a Game 5 on the road with a late comeback arrives with confidence, if not fresh arms, and the Guardians' lineup has been built to grind out at-bats against power pitching. The plan against Rasmussen will be patience: raise his pitch count early, get to the Tampa Bay bullpen by the sixth, and hope the game is still within a run when it gets there. That is a narrow path, but it is the one Cleveland used to beat a strong Chicago staff in the Division Series.

The fantasy and DFS angle

Drew Rasmussen is the top pitching play on a short slate. A rested ace at home against a tired lineup is a strong spot for both strikeouts and outs recorded.

Rays hitters have the more favorable matchup on paper. Griffin is a left-hander who will likely be pulled early, so stacks that include right-handed bats and players who see the Cleveland bullpen late carry upside.

Jose Ramirez is the one Cleveland bat to trust in any format. He has been the Guardians' postseason engine, and he is the player most likely to make Rasmussen pay for a mistake.

Foster Griffin is a fade in DFS. Even if he pitches well, a short outing limits his ceiling.

The Verdexed angle

The ALCS opener sets up as a classic rest-versus-rhythm test, with the starting pitching matchup clearly favoring Tampa Bay. For the model's view, see the MLB predictions page and the MLB picks for October 12 when they publish.

For series bettors, Game 1 matters less than how Cleveland's rotation lines up afterward. Messick in Game 2 and Williams in Game 3 give the Guardians their best two arms in the next two games. A split at Tropicana Field would put Cleveland in a strong position heading home.

What's next

Game 2 is Tuesday at Tropicana Field with Messick expected to start for Cleveland. Watch Monday's bullpen usage closely: if Vogt has to burn his top relievers to keep Game 1 close, the Guardians' pitching depth gets tested again in Game 2. If Griffin gives them five solid innings, Cleveland has a path to stealing a game on the road before Williams takes the ball in Game 3.