Jacob Misiorowski Lines Up for World Series Game 1 as the Rested Brewers Watch the ALCS Go at Least Six

The Milwaukee Brewers are guaranteed something they rarely get in October: time. Their four-game NLCS sweep of the Dodgers ended Thursday, and World Series Game 1 is not until Friday, Oct. 23, at American Family Field. The Rays beat Cleveland 7-3 on Saturday to tie the ALCS 2-2, so the American League pennant will take at least two more games, and possibly three.

Jacob Misiorowski is lined up to start Game 1. Yahoo Sports called him Plan A, and he would be pitching on 12 days between starts. The team's probable pitchers page still lists the start as TBD and Milwaukee has not made a formal announcement, so treat it as the expected plan rather than a confirmed one. Behind him, the Brewers have real questions about how to cover Games 2 through 4, and about whether Brandon Woodruff makes the roster.

How Milwaukee got here

The Brewers trailed in all four NLCS games and won all four. The clincher was the biggest comeback of the series. Shohei Ohtani's three-run homer in the second inning gave Los Angeles a 4-0 lead at Dodger Stadium. Milwaukee scored two runs in the fourth and two in the fifth, Garrett Mitchell homered off Tanner Scott in the sixth for the lead, and David Hamilton added a ninth-inning homer off Edwin Díaz. The four-run comeback tied the largest ever in an LCS clincher.

Jake Bauers was named NLCS MVP, the first Brewers player to win an LCS MVP. He hit safely in all four games and drove in six runs, which tied the franchise record for a postseason series. Manager Pat Murphy joked afterward that Bauers played through a broken toe and shin splints. It is Milwaukee's first World Series trip since 1982, after a franchise-best 103-59 regular season that was also the best record in baseball.

The rotation question behind Misiorowski

Misiorowski's regular season was historic. Per Yahoo Sports, he led MLB pitchers in ERA (1.80), WHIP (0.80) and strikeouts (252) over 174 2/3 innings, and he has been clocked as high as 105.5 mph. His October has been shorter. He did not reach the sixth inning in his playoff starts against the Padres or the Dodgers. In NLCS Game 1, he allowed one run over 4 1/3 innings after a 35-pitch second inning, and the bullpen won it 2-1.

The rest of the rotation is less settled. Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser and trade-deadline pickup Dustin May are the other starters, and none of them has pitched past the fifth inning this postseason. May can also work as a bulk reliever. Murphy has used openers before and has said his rotation plans can change. The likely plan is a long Misiorowski start in Game 1, then shorter starts in the following games with the bullpen covering the late innings.

That puts a lot on the relievers. Aaron Ashby was Milwaukee's best arm in the NLCS, with three scoreless multi-inning appearances, including the last nine outs of the clincher. Left-handers DL Hall and JoJo Romero were also asked to go more than an inning. Closer Trevor Megill pitched little in the NLCS, which suggests Murphy is saving him for higher-leverage spots.

The Woodruff wild card

Brandon Woodruff has made clear he wants to pitch in this series. He made nine starts this season, going 2-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, but a right shoulder problem has kept him out of games for more than three months, and he did not pitch in the NLCS. He has said he needs to face live hitters and expects roster conversations in the next few days. No decision has been reported. If he is added, it is more likely as a short-stint arm than as a traditional starter, given the layoff.

Rays or Guardians: what each matchup asks of Milwaukee

Both possible opponents present problems for a lineup that led MLB in batting average, on-base percentage and walk rate but ranked 29th in home runs. The Brewers win by grinding through at-bats, and both AL pitching staffs are built to take that away.

Tampa Bay has the stronger front of the rotation right now. Drew Rasmussen has a 1.29 ERA over 14 postseason innings, and Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee's longtime ace before landing with the Rays, has already won a game in this ALCS. Closer Bryan Baker has finished all five Rays postseason wins without allowing a run. The Rays' top four of Díaz, Aranda, Simpson and Caminero also just broke out for six RBIs in Game 4.

Cleveland leans on its bullpen, with closer Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Erik Sabrowski at the back end. Its rotation is younger and more stretched. Parker Messick is near 198 innings for the year, and the Guardians opened the ALCS with reliever Foster Griffin starting Game 1 and ran a seven-pitcher bullpen game in Game 4. A long ALCS would leave Cleveland's staff in worse shape for Game 1 in Milwaukee.

Betting angle

The series price has moved a long way in Milwaukee's favor. On Oct. 13, with the NLCS at 2-0, DraftKings had the Brewers at +105 to win the title. By Saturday, before ALCS Game 4, DraftKings had Milwaukee at -190, Cleveland at +340 and Tampa Bay at +450. BetMGM listed the Brewers at -180. Prediction markets were close to the sportsbooks: Kalshi traders had Milwaukee at about 66 percent, with Cleveland at 21 and Tampa Bay at 15.

The Rays winning Game 4 changes how to read the AL prices. A Rays-Guardians series that goes six or seven games drains both staffs and pushes the AL ace's next start later, which helps a rested Brewers team in Game 1. The other side is rust. A week off has burned postseason teams before, and Milwaukee's offense did not score more than four runs in any of its first five playoff games.

For Verdexed's daily view on the remaining ALCS games, check the MLB predictions page.

What to do in your league

Fantasy formats this time of year are mostly single-game DFS and postseason contests. In Game 1, Misiorowski's strikeout upside makes him the top pitching play on the slate. If you need a cheaper hitter, Bauers has reached base in every NLCS game, and Mitchell's two series homers make him a tournament option. Brice Turang and William Contreras each delivered a signature moment in the NLCS, Turang in the Game 1 win over Tarik Skubal and Contreras against Yamamoto in Game 2. In postseason best-ball or playoff challenge formats, Ashby is the reliever to target, since his multi-inning role gives him more strikeout chances than a one-inning closer gets.

What's next

ALCS Game 5 is Sunday in Cleveland, with Rasmussen against Messick. Game 6 is Monday in St. Petersburg, and Game 7 would be Tuesday, Oct. 20. The World Series opens Friday, Oct. 23, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX in Milwaukee, and Game 2 is there Saturday. The Bucks moved their home opener time so it does not overlap with Game 1. Expect Milwaukee to name its Game 1 starter, and announce any Woodruff decision, once the AL opponent is known.