Jose Ramirez Finishes Cleveland's Comeback, and the Guardians Open the ALCS at Tampa Bay Without Gavin Williams or Parker Messick Available for Game 1

The Cleveland Guardians are in the American League Championship Series. Jose Ramirez hit a two-run home run, one the Yahoo Sports live report described as coming from his shins, and Cleveland beat the Chicago White Sox 2-0 in a winner-take-all Game 5 on Saturday night at Progressive Field. The Guardians lost the first two games of the series at home, won twice in Chicago and then closed it out, becoming the first club to come back from an 0-2 deficit in a best-of-five series since the 2017 Yankees did it against Cleveland.

The reward is a trip to St. Petersburg. The ALCS begins Monday at 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field against a Tampa Bay Rays team that swept the Yankees in the Division Series and has been resting since. The price of Saturday's win is a rotation that will not have its two best starters available for Game 1.

How Game 5 was won

Gavin Williams carried the Guardians. Per the live game report, he allowed one hit over 5 2/3 innings and struck out 12, a dominant start from the pitcher who led the AL in strikeouts during the regular season. Cade Smith then struck out the side to finish a five-out save. Ramirez's homer provided all the offense Cleveland needed.

The series was a referendum on Cleveland's pitching depth. Williams pitched in relief in Game 4 to get the final three outs of the 9-5 win in Chicago, then started Game 5 two days later. That usage is exactly why he is not expected to be ready for the start of the ALCS.

Cleveland's Game 1 problem

According to MLB.com and the Guardians' own preview materials, neither Williams nor co-ace Parker Messick is likely to be an option for Game 1. The team's FAQ indicated Williams is likely not available until Game 3 on Thursday.

That leaves Cleveland with several options for Monday:

The Guardians' preview suggested Griffin, or an Espino and Cantillo pairing, could make the most sense because those pitchers have had the most rest. Bibee is also an option, though he was moved to the bullpen after an inconsistent regular season. Cleveland had not announced its Game 1 starter as of Sunday morning.

Tampa Bay's advantage

The Rays have every advantage a rested team can have. Drew Rasmussen is lined up for Game 1, and manager Kevin Cash has said the Rays are likely to use four starters in the series. Tampa Bay also won the regular-season series against Cleveland, five games to one.

Both teams are built around pitching. Neither offense ranks among the league's best, and both clubs finished the regular season with team ERAs in the 3.70 range. That makes this a matchup where a single big hit, like Ramirez's on Saturday, can decide a game. Junior Caminero is the Rays hitter most capable of providing that kind of moment for Tampa Bay.

Betting angle

The Rays opened as series favorites at about -170 at DraftKings, with the Guardians at +140. For Game 1, Tampa Bay is about a -168 favorite on the moneyline and a 1.5-run favorite on the run line, with the total set at 7 runs.

Those numbers reflect Tampa Bay's rest and Cleveland's pitching situation, and they are reasonable. The question for bettors is how much value to place on the Guardians' momentum against the Rays' rest. Rest has not been a reliable predictor of postseason results, and Cleveland's bullpen depth has been a strength. But the Game 1 starter matchup clearly favors Tampa Bay.

The low total makes sense given both teams' pitching profiles. A Cleveland bullpen game in Game 1 could go either way: the Guardians' relievers have been excellent, but a bullpen game increases the variance and the chance of a big inning.

Verdexed publishes its MLB game views on the MLB predictions page, with daily boards such as the October 10 MLB picks.

What to watch in the series

Games 1 and 2: Cleveland's goal is to split in St. Petersburg. If the Guardians can steal one game without Williams and Messick, they return home for Games 3 and 4 with their top starters available, which shifts the series in their favor.

Gavin Williams in Game 3: If the Guardians' FAQ timeline holds, Williams will start Thursday at Progressive Field. After his Game 5 performance, that start will be the most important of the series for Cleveland.

The bullpens: Both teams have strong relief corps. Cade Smith's five-out save Saturday showed what the Guardians can do with their best arms, and the Rays' bullpen depth is among the best in the league.

Jose Ramirez: He is the heartbeat of Cleveland's offense. His homer in Game 4 was just his second since September 1, and his Game 5 blast might be a sign that he is heating up at the right time.

What's next

Game 1 starts Monday at 8 p.m. ET on TBS, truTV and HBO Max. Games 1 and 2 are in St. Petersburg, with Games 3 and 4 at Progressive Field. The winner faces either the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Milwaukee Brewers, whose NLCS begins tonight in Milwaukee with Tarik Skubal facing Jacob Misiorowski.