Rain Moves ALCS Game 3 to 1 p.m., and Gavin Williams Gets the Ball for Cleveland Against Griffin Jax With the Series Tied

Game 3 of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will start at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday instead of the evening, after MLB moved the game up because of rain in the Cleveland forecast. The series is tied 1-1, and the Guardians confirmed Wednesday that right-hander Gavin Williams will start against Rays right-hander Griffin Jax.

Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti announced the choice. Williams will pitch on four days' rest after striking out 12 in 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the White Sox in the decisive Game 5 of the ALDS. He finished the regular season 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA.

How the series got here

Cleveland rallied to win Game 1 in Tampa Bay behind a bullpen game that began with Foster Griffin, because nobody else on the staff was rested after the ALDS. The Rays answered in Game 2 with a 3-1 win behind Freddy Peralta, who threw six scoreless innings, allowed four hits and two walks, and struck out six on 99 pitches. Peralta's fastball touched 99.4 mph, the hardest pitch of his career.

The Rays scored all three of their runs in the fourth inning, helped by an error from Jose Ramirez, and Liam Hicks drove in two. Kevin Kelly, Ian Seymour and Bryan Baker closed out the final three innings.

The pitching matchup

Williams is the Guardians' best available arm, and his last outing was the best start of his postseason. The strikeout total in the ALDS clincher shows what his stuff can do when his command holds. The concern with Williams has always been walks and pitch efficiency, which can push him out of games before the sixth inning and expose a bullpen that has already been worked hard this October.

Jax is a different case. He built his reputation as a high-leverage reliever earlier in his career, and he went 8-10 with a 3.53 ERA in the regular season. The Rays used him in relief during the ALDS, and they are returning to him as a starter here. Expect a shorter outing with an aggressive hook, because the Rays have built their October around matching up late in games.

The weather and timing angle

A 1 p.m. start in cool, damp conditions in Cleveland is not a hitter's environment. Day games in mid-October with weather around tend to suppress offense, and both teams' lineups are built more on contact and situational hitting than on raw power. The total for this game will likely open low, and the conditions support that.

The earlier start also affects the NLCS: Game 4 between the Brewers and Dodgers was moved up an hour to 8 p.m. ET, so Thursday is now a clean daytime ALCS and evening NLCS doubleheader.

Betting angle

Williams is the bigger name and the more proven starter, and the Guardians are at home. That combination usually makes Cleveland a modest favorite. The case for Tampa Bay is that Jax only needs to get through the order once or twice before the Rays' deep bullpen takes over, while Cleveland's relievers have been stretched.

Strikeout props are the cleanest angle. Williams is coming off a 12-strikeout game, and the Rays' lineup is built to put the ball in play, which complicates his over. Jax, by contrast, will likely have a low strikeout line because of his expected short leash.

For the model's read on the game, Verdexed's daily board will be at MLB picks for October 15, with broader context at MLB predictions.

What it means for the rest of the series

With the series tied and Games 3 through 5 in Cleveland, Game 3 is a pivot point. A Guardians win would put them two wins from the World Series with home field in their favor for the rest of this stretch. A Rays win would put Tampa Bay two wins from the World Series and take away the home-field edge Cleveland gets from this three-game stretch.

The Rays are expected to turn to their rotation in order from here, with a Game 4 starter lined up for Friday.

What's next

First pitch is 1 p.m. ET. The winner of this series meets the Brewers or Dodgers in the World Series, and with Milwaukee one win away in the NL, the ALCS could quickly become the only series left to decide the Fall Classic matchup.