Patrick Bailey and Jose Ramirez Force ALDS Game 5 as Gavin Williams Lines Up for Cleveland

The Cleveland Guardians are one win from completing a comeback from 0-2 down in the American League Division Series. Cleveland beat the Chicago White Sox 9-5 at Rate Field on Thursday night, scoring six runs in the sixth inning to tie the series 2-2 and send it back to Progressive Field for a winner-take-all Game 5 on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on TBS. The winner opens the ALCS against the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays on Monday.

For bettors and postseason fantasy players, the story is less about Thursday's slugfest than about what it cost both pitching staffs. Each club emptied a large part of its bullpen to get through Game 4, neither has formally named a Game 5 starter, and the team that survives Saturday will open the ALCS less than 48 hours later against a Rays staff that has not pitched since Wednesday.

How Cleveland came back in Game 4

Chicago controlled the first half of the night. The White Sox led 2-0 through four innings, and Cleveland had one hit to that point. Parker Messick, who started Game 1 for the Guardians, lasted just 2 1/3 innings, and Cleveland used seven more pitchers behind him.

The swing started with a bench move. Patrick Bailey, who sat to begin the game because Austin Hedges usually catches Messick, led off the fifth as a pinch-hitter and lined a 376-foot solo homer just inside the right-field foul pole, per MLB.com. Three batters later, Jose Ramirez hit a two-run homer off Jordan Hicks to give Cleveland a 3-2 lead. Chicago answered in the bottom of the fifth to go back in front 4-3.

The sixth was the inning that changed the series. Angel Martinez was hit by a pitch, stole second and scored on a Travis Bazzana double that tied the game. The White Sox then went to closer Grant Taylor, who had thrown 7 2/3 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts this postseason, including a four-inning save in Game 1. Bailey greeted him with a go-ahead single to the opposite field, and six straight Cleveland hitters reached base. Taylor did not record an out and was charged with four runs. By the end of the inning the Guardians led 9-4. Gavin Williams, a potential Game 5 starter, recorded the final three outs on 18 pitches in his first career relief appearance.

Cleveland has now scored nine runs in back-to-back postseason games for only the second time in franchise history, per MLB.com, and Ramirez has turned the series around after an 0-for-6 start. He is 4-for-9 with a double, a triple, a homer and five RBIs since.

Who pitches Game 5

Neither team had made it official as of Friday. Williams is expected to start for Cleveland, per MLB.com and multiple reports, and Friday's travel day helps after his 18-pitch ninth. Williams was dominant in Game 2, striking out 11 over five innings in a game Cleveland lost. Manager Stephen Vogt has not confirmed the plan, and the relief outing may cap how deep Williams can go.

The White Sox are leaning on Sean Burke, but manager Will Venable has only committed to Burke pitching in some form, either as the starter or in a bulk role. Burke was Chicago's best pitcher of the series in Game 2, entering in the third inning and allowing one run on one hit over 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts, at one point retiring 13 straight.

The bullpens are the real question. Chicago used seven pitchers in Game 4. Erick Fedde threw 61 pitches over 3 2/3 innings and may be unavailable. Rookie lefty Hagen Smith opened the game, walked three in the first and has now appeared three times in the series, so his leash is likely short. Taylor told reporters he will be available. On the Cleveland side, closer Cade Smith threw 31 pitches on Thursday, and the Guardians' staff carried a heavy load over the two games in Chicago. Friday's off day helps both sides, but not equally: Cleveland's top relievers worked longer on Thursday.

The market and the history

Early odds reports had Cleveland as a moderate home favorite for Game 5, in roughly the -135 to -150 range depending on the book, before either starter was confirmed. MLB.com framed the matchup as close to a coin flip, and the history supports that read. Of the 18 teams that fell behind 0-2 in a best-of-five series and won the next two, 10 went on to win Game 5, per MLB.com. Home teams are 19-22 in winner-take-all Division Series games.

The case for Cleveland is momentum plus the Williams matchup: he has already overpowered this lineup once, and the Guardians' bats have woken up. The case for Chicago is that Burke has also already handled this lineup once, and the White Sox won both games in Cleveland earlier in the series. Chicago is trying to reach its first ALCS since 2005.

The Verdexed take

We lean Cleveland in Game 5, but only modestly, and the price matters. The Guardians get the better-rested starter in a familiar park and have the hotter offense. The counterweight is that Williams threw in relief Thursday and may not get deep, which puts the game back on a bullpen that has worked hard. At the opening range, Cleveland is a fair but not exciting side. If the line drifts much past -150 once Williams is confirmed, the value tilts toward Chicago.

The cleaner angle may be the first five innings. Williams and Burke have both pitched well against these lineups, and the late innings are where the tired bullpens show up. A first-five under is worth a look if the total posts in a normal range. Verdexed's full game call will be on the daily MLB picks page once probables are set, and game-by-game probabilities are at /mlb/predictions.

What to do in postseason fantasy and DFS

Saturday's Game 5 is the only baseball on the schedule, so single-game DFS ownership will be concentrated. Ramirez is the Cleveland bat to build around, and Bazzana's role near the bottom of the order makes him a sensible value play after his tying double. Bailey is a matchup play only if he starts. For Chicago, Miguel Vargas has reached base 12 times in the series and homered late in Game 4, which makes him the steadiest option, with Munetaka Murakami still the power ceiling.

On the pitching side, Williams is the higher-strikeout option, but discount him for length after Thursday's relief outing. Burke is the safer innings bet only if Chicago confirms him as the starter rather than as a bulk arm behind an opener. Wait for lineups before locking anything.

What's next

Watch for the official Game 5 starters on Friday or Saturday, and for whether Chicago uses an opener again ahead of Burke. Whoever wins opens the ALCS at Tropicana Field on Monday at 8 p.m. ET against a Rays team that will have had four days off, with Drew Rasmussen lined up for Game 1. The Game 5 winner will likely start the ALCS with whatever is left in its rotation, which is exactly why the Rays will be favored in Game 1 no matter who comes out of Cleveland.