Brice Turang Beats Tarik Skubal, the Brewers Bullpen Steals NLCS Game 1, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto Has to Answer

The Milwaukee Brewers took Game 1 of the National League Championship Series 2-1 over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night at American Family Field, winning a low-scoring duel on a Brice Turang solo homer off Tarik Skubal and four and two-thirds innings of shutout relief. Milwaukee leads the series 1-0, and Game 2 is Monday afternoon in Milwaukee, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting for Los Angeles against Brewers right-hander Logan Henderson.

For bettors, the question going into Game 2 is whether the Dodgers' quiet night was an aberration or a matchup problem. For anyone playing playoff DFS or props, the answer shapes how to treat a Dodgers lineup that just managed a single run.

How Game 1 was won

Jacob Misiorowski did not have his sharpest command. The Dodgers made him work through a 35-pitch second inning, and he was out after four and one-third innings and 94 pitches, having allowed one run with five strikeouts. That would usually spell trouble against the Dodgers' lineup. Instead, Milwaukee's bullpen took over.

Turang tied the game with a leadoff home run in the fourth. In the fifth, Garrett Mitchell drew a leadoff walk, Cooper Pratt bunted him to second and rookie Luis Lara singled him home for the go-ahead run. It was the kind of small-ball sequence that tends to decide October games between two strong pitching staffs.

DL Hall relieved Misiorowski and earned the win. Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby, who worked two innings, bridged to closer Trevor Megill, who made it interesting in the ninth by walking Kyle Tucker and pinch-hitter Josue De Paula with two outs. Mookie Betts flied to the warning track in center to end it.

The pitching lines

The starters' lines tell the story of a game both teams expected to be close.

Skubal allowed five hits and two walks across his five innings, and the Dodgers' offense never gave him any margin to work with.

Game 2: Yamamoto vs. Logan Henderson

Monday's game starts at 2 p.m. Pacific (5 p.m. Eastern) on Fox. Yamamoto was a central figure in the Dodgers' run to last year's title, and starting him in Game 2 positions him to pitch twice in a seven-game series if needed. Henderson, a right-hander, has been a valuable piece of Milwaukee's rotation, but the Brewers will likely be quick to go to the bullpen again.

That bullpen usage is the key variable. Milwaukee used five relievers in Game 1, including two innings from Ashby. If Henderson cannot work deep, the Brewers' relievers face back-to-back days, which tilts the late innings toward the Dodgers. It is one of the reasons a Game 1 loss on the road is less damaging to Los Angeles than the scoreboard suggests: the Dodgers came into the series as the favorite, and a split in Milwaukee would still leave them with home field for the middle three games.

The fantasy and DFS angle

Dodgers hitters are a buy-low option in Game 2 DFS. One quiet night against Misiorowski and a deep bullpen does not change the lineup's talent, and Henderson is a different, less overpowering look. Betts, who nearly tied the game in the ninth, and Tucker, who worked a key walk, are the high-floor plays.

Brewers hitters are harder to trust against Yamamoto. Turang is the exception: he has the speed and contact skills to produce DFS value even without power. Lara, a rookie who delivered the go-ahead hit, is a cheap leverage play if he stays in the lineup.

Pitching props deserve caution on both sides. The Brewers' approach in Game 1, working counts, taking walks and moving runners, is the kind of approach that lengthens innings and can cut a starter's outing short, which caps strikeout totals even for a pitcher of Yamamoto's quality. On the Milwaukee side, Henderson's outs total is the more volatile number given how quickly the Brewers turned to their bullpen on Sunday.

The Verdexed angle

A road loss in Game 1 is not a crisis for a favorite, but it does put pressure on the Dodgers to split in Milwaukee before the series moves to Los Angeles. For the model's view of Game 2, see the MLB predictions page and the MLB picks for October 12 when they publish.

What's next

If the Dodgers win Game 2, the series shifts to Los Angeles tied 1-1, and the Brewers' bullpen workload becomes their main concern. If Milwaukee wins, the Brewers take a 2-0 lead to Dodger Stadium and the defending champions face a must-win stretch. Either way, Monday's bullpen usage will tell you as much about the rest of the series as the final score.

One more note for series bettors: Milwaukee's Game 1 formula, a starter who gets into the fifth followed by a parade of high-leverage arms, is repeatable only if the relievers stay fresh. The Brewers have no off day between Games 1 and 2, so watch whether Ashby and Megill are available Monday. If they are not, the late innings tilt toward the Dodgers, and so does the series.