Adam Fantilli Is the NHL's Last Big Unsigned RFA: Columbus Says It Will Match Anything

Adam Fantilli is the most significant restricted free agent still without a contract, and the Columbus Blue Jackets have positioned themselves to make sure that status does not become permanent. General manager Don Waddell has publicly addressed the offer sheet threat, describing an ongoing good-faith negotiation with Fantilli's agent and noting that as long as the two sides are talking, he is confident a deal gets done. Columbus has kept more than $23 million in cap space available, which is not an accident.

Fantilli is 21 and coming off a career-high 59 points, with 24 goals and 35 assists in all 82 games. That combination, a young top-six center with durability and a rising scoring trajectory, is precisely the profile that offer sheets are designed to target.

Why the offer sheet threat is credible this summer

The 2026 offseason has changed the calculus. Leo Carlsson signed a five-year, $90 million offer sheet with Philadelphia, and Anaheim matched. That transaction did two things at once: it proved that teams are now willing to actually use the mechanism on premium young talent, and it reset the price for every comparable player still unsigned.

The Carlsson number is the shadow hanging over the Fantilli negotiation. Agents do not ignore a fresh comparable at that level, and clubs cannot pretend it does not exist. Whatever Columbus was prepared to pay in May is probably not what it will pay in August.

Waddell's framing is notable for what it implies. His reference point is that he talks to the agent constantly, which he contrasted with the position Anaheim found itself in when the Carlsson sheet arrived. He is signaling that he will not be surprised, and the cap space is the proof that he can respond.

The negotiation, read plainly

Columbus holds the structural advantage. Matching rights plus $23 million in space means the club can absorb any realistic offer sheet, and the compensation framework does not create a scenario where the Blue Jackets are forced to let a 21-year-old center walk for draft picks.

Fantilli's leverage is time and the calendar. Training camps open in September, and an unsigned restricted free agent who is not in camp is a problem for a team with playoff ambitions. That pressure is real but it is bilateral: Fantilli does not get paid while he is not signed either.

The likeliest outcome is a long-term deal in Columbus at a number closer to what the Carlsson contract established than to what Columbus initially budgeted.

Fantasy fallout

Fantilli's fantasy value is largely insulated from the contract outcome, which is the key point for anyone drafting in the next six weeks. He is going to play in Columbus this season in one of two ways: on a new long-term deal, or on a matched offer sheet that also keeps him in Columbus. Both roads end in the same uniform.

What the contract does affect is role and deployment. A player signed to a nine-figure long-term commitment gets first-line center minutes and top power-play usage as a matter of organizational logic. That is the version of Fantilli worth drafting, and it is the version our projections assume.

The scenario to actually watch is a training camp holdout. A missed camp costs conditioning and chemistry, and centers in particular tend to start slowly when they arrive late. That is a real but modest risk to his October production rather than a season-defining one.

At 59 points in a full season, Fantilli is currently priced as a mid-tier fantasy center with room to grow. The growth case rests on power-play usage, which is where the largest single gap between his current production and his ceiling lives.

The Verdexed model take

Our system projects Fantilli's baseline off his usage and shot-generation profile rather than off his raw point total, and those underlying inputs support a modest step forward rather than a leap. A 21-year-old center who plays all 82 games and increases his goal total is on a normal development curve, and normal development curves in our model produce incremental gains rather than breakouts.

The variable with the most projection leverage is power-play time. Our model's Fantilli distribution widens substantially depending on whether he runs the first unit or the second, and Columbus's deployment decisions have not been settled publicly. Managers should treat first-unit power-play confirmation in camp as the single most valuable piece of information about his season.

We do not apply a contract-status discount to his projection. Restricted free agents with matching-rights leverage on their club's side almost always sign, and the historical rate of RFAs missing meaningful regular season time is low.

Betting angle

Columbus season markets have been priced with the assumption that Fantilli plays, which is the correct assumption. There is no live edge in fading a team over an RFA negotiation that both sides want resolved.

Fantilli's individual points prop, when it posts, is the more interesting market. Books tend to set young-player totals off the prior season with a small upward adjustment, and our model's read on his development curve is broadly in line with that approach. The value would appear only if a first-unit power-play role is confirmed and the number does not move.

What's next

The other names to watch in this market are the ones Waddell is implicitly competing against for cap space and comparables. Jamie Drysdale and Kirby Dach have been among the unresolved restricted situations, and arbitration hearings have been running through the end of the month.

For Fantilli specifically, expect resolution before camp. The cap space is there, the conversations are ongoing, and neither side benefits from a standoff. Draft him as if he plays 82 games in a first-line role, because that is the overwhelmingly likely outcome.