Adam Fantilli Is the Last Big RFA Standing, and the Bedard and Carlsson Deals Set His Price

Adam Fantilli remains without a contract for the 2026-27 season, and with August underway he is among the most prominent restricted free agents in the league still on the board. The Columbus Blue Jackets have not closed the gap, and the framework for what closing it looks like was built by two other players.

Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson, the two centers drafted ahead of Fantilli in 2023, have both signed. Bedard's extension with Chicago came in at five years and $15 million annually. Carlsson's situation resolved when Anaheim matched a Philadelphia offer sheet reported at $90 million, putting him at $18 million per season across five years. Those are the comparables, and Fantilli's camp is reportedly seeking a deal in the same realm.

Columbus, for its part, has publicly projected optimism. Industry estimates have coalesced around a five-year deal in the $13 million to $13.5 million range annually, with some projections stretching toward $14 million.

Why the delay is a strategy, not a breakdown

Hitting July 1 without a deal has become a deliberate approach for high-end restricted free agents rather than a sign of dysfunction. The player retains the theoretical threat of an offer sheet, which the Carlsson situation just proved is a live weapon, and the team retains the right to match. Neither side loses anything by waiting through July, and both gain information as the market prices comparable players.

Fantilli's own case is straightforward on the ice. He scored 24 goals with a career-high 59 points in 82 games last season, playing 18:54 a night. That is a genuinely productive top-six center's season from a 21-year-old, and the age curve says the best is well ahead of him.

The complication for Columbus is that the comparables were set by two players whose statistical seasons do not obviously exceed Fantilli's, which makes the gap between $13 million and $15 million harder to defend on the merits than a team would like.

Fantasy fallout

The contract itself does not change Fantilli's fantasy value. He is Columbus's top center regardless of what he signs for, and no plausible outcome of this negotiation moves him down the depth chart.

What matters for fantasy managers is the ice time that comes with a big contract, and specifically the power play. Fantilli played just under 19 minutes a night last season, which is a solid but not maximized workload for a first-line center. Players who sign at $13 million and above tend to see that number climb, and the increase typically arrives on the man advantage.

That is where the fantasy upside sits. A center whose even-strength role is already established but whose power-play deployment has room to grow is the profile most likely to post a scoring jump that outpaces his underlying play. A move from a secondary power-play role to full first-unit minutes is worth real points over 82 games, and the new 84-game schedule adds to the total.

The risk is a training-camp absence. Restricted free agents who sign in September miss the installation period, and centers in particular tend to start slowly when they arrive late. Managers drafting Fantilli should account for a possible cold October rather than assuming a clean start.

The Verdexed model take

Our model separates contract news into signal and noise, and the useful signal in restricted free agency is not the dollar figure. It is the term and the timing.

A five-year deal signals a team planning around a player as a core piece and deploying him accordingly, which our system translates into an ice-time projection at the upper end of his historical range. A shorter bridge deal signals a team hedging, which translates into a projection closer to last season's usage.

On the assumption of a long-term deal in the projected range, our model has Fantilli's point total moving up meaningfully from his 59-point season, driven by power-play time rather than by any assumed efficiency improvement. That places him in the tier just below the elite fantasy centers, which is roughly where he is being drafted in early fantasy hockey rankings.

The model's caution is on the Columbus supporting cast. A center's point production depends heavily on his linemates, and Fantilli's ceiling is capped more by who he plays with than by his own deployment. Our projection is more conservative than his talent alone would justify for exactly that reason.

Betting angle

Columbus's team point total for the 2026-27 season is the market this touches, and the read is that it is priced on the assumption Fantilli signs. He almost certainly will. Betting the under on the basis of an unresolved RFA negotiation in early August is betting against the overwhelming historical base rate.

The individual market to watch is Fantilli's season point total, once it posts. Those numbers are typically anchored to the prior season's output, and if his opens near 59 or 60, the over is defensible on ice-time growth alone, before accounting for the longer schedule.

Offer-sheet speculation is not bettable and should be treated as entertainment. The Carlsson situation proved offer sheets are back in the toolkit, but it also proved that teams match them.

What to do in your league

Draft Fantilli where his production suggests, not where the contract uncertainty makes you nervous. He is going to play, he is going to play top-line minutes, and the negotiation is about money rather than role.

In dynasty and keeper leagues, this is a modest buy window. Managers get skittish about unsigned players, and the discount available on a 21-year-old first-line center with a rising ice-time trajectory is the kind of thing that looks foolish in November.

If the standoff runs into September, downgrade his October projection specifically rather than his season projection. That is the correct and precise adjustment.

What's next

The deadline that matters is the start of Columbus's training camp. An unsigned Fantilli at that point would be a genuine escalation and would introduce the possibility of missed regular-season games, which is the one outcome that would change his fantasy value materially.

The other thing to watch is whether any team with cap space tests Columbus with an offer sheet. Anaheim matched for Carlsson without hesitation, and Columbus would be expected to do the same, but an offer sheet would at minimum establish the number and end the standoff. Sometimes the fastest way to finish a negotiation is for someone else to make the offer.