Adam Fantilli Is the Last Big RFA in Columbus and Two Rival Deals Set His Price

Adam Fantilli remains unsigned for the 2026-27 season with NHL training camps opening in mid-September. He is the last significant piece of business for a Columbus front office that has already re-signed restricted free agents Jet Greaves and Cole Sillinger this summer.

Columbus reporting has framed the contract as close rather than contentious, with Aaron Portzline suggesting a landing spot in the range of $13 million to $13.5 million depending on term and describing a five-year deal in the $13 million to $14 million band as the likely outcome. The Blue Jackets general manager has publicly expressed hope of finalizing it before camp.

The complication is external. Elliotte Friedman has reported that the extensions signed this summer by Leo Carlsson, at a reported $18 million average annual value, and Connor Bedard, at a reported $15 million, have made the negotiation harder. Fantilli's camp has two very recent comparables from the same draft cohort tier, both signed to five-year terms, and both above where Columbus wants to land.

The production argument cuts both ways

Fantilli is coming off a 59-point season with 24 goals and 35 assists in all 82 games, his second consecutive full campaign. That was a modest step forward in total production but a step backward in goals from the 31 he scored the year before. His assists were a career high, including nine on the power play.

The underlying numbers tell a more favorable story than the box score. Per MoneyPuck, Fantilli's expected even-strength goal total sat near 21.8, which ranked sixth in the entire league, and he finished with 14. That is a gap of roughly eight goals attributable to finishing variance rather than to process. His shot volume rose to 214 and his ice time climbed to just under 19 minutes per night.

For Columbus, the argument is that the raw production does not justify Carlsson and Bedard money. For Fantilli, the argument is that a player generating the sixth-most expected even-strength goals in hockey is being penalized for one unlucky season, and that the next contract should pay for the process rather than the percentage.

Both are correct, which is why this is taking so long.

Fantasy fallout

Fantilli is the most straightforward buy-low in fantasy hockey right now, and the reason is the finishing gap.

Shooting percentage regresses. A player who generated elite expected goals and converted at a well below-average rate is the archetype that outperforms his draft position the following year, and Fantilli has the additional tailwind of rising ice time and a role that has been expanding under Rick Bowness. A 30-goal, 70-point season is a reasonable projection rather than an optimistic one.

The contract situation is what creates the discount. Fantasy managers get nervous about unsigned players, and drafts happening in early September will price in some risk of a holdout. That risk is small. Every public indication points to a deal getting done, and restricted free agents in this situation almost always sign.

The related Columbus names matter less. Cole Sillinger is signed and remains a depth option. Jet Greaves is the more interesting one for goalie-needy managers, because Columbus's crease has not been settled in a way that produces a reliable starter, and that is its own fantasy problem.

The Verdexed model take

The model's projection for Fantilli sits comfortably above his consensus fantasy ranking, and the entire gap is explained by shooting percentage normalization. When the model replaces last season's conversion rate with a career-appropriate baseline while holding shot volume and ice time constant, his projected goal total jumps by roughly a third.

That is the cleanest kind of fantasy edge: a mechanical adjustment that most draft boards apply too conservatively because they anchor on last season's counting stats.

At the team level, the model is less enthusiastic. Columbus has been improving but still projects outside the comfortable playoff band in the Eastern Conference, and a single forward's bounce-back does not change that. The Blue Jackets' season point total is close to fair at market, with no meaningful edge on either side.

The market worth watching is the individual player prop board. If a sportsbook posts a Fantilli goals total that anchors on last season's 24, that number is too low relative to the model's projection, and it is the kind of season-long prop that gets set before the underlying-metrics case is widely understood.

What to do in your league

Draft Fantilli ahead of his consensus ranking. He is a top-40 forward in the model's projections and is frequently available well after that.

Do not let the unsigned status change your board. If the deal is not done by the first day of camp, revisit it, but plan on him playing.

In keeper and dynasty formats, this is the last window to acquire him at a price that reflects a 24-goal season rather than what the underlying numbers say he should have scored.

What is next

Camps open in mid-September, and that is the practical deadline. A restricted free agent who misses the start of camp loses conditioning and timing, and Columbus has no incentive to let that happen over a gap that both sides describe as narrow.

The bigger structural note is the September 16 CBA changes, which have created urgency across the league for teams and agents to complete business before the rules shift. That date is quietly shaping several negotiations this month, and Columbus is one of them.