NHL RFA Watch: Bedard and Fantilli Still Unsigned as Carlsson's Deal Resets the Market

Leo Carlsson's $90 million offer sheet did more than keep him in Anaheim. It reset the entire market for the NHL's elite young restricted free agents, and two of the game's brightest talents are still unsigned in its wake. Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, the top two picks of the 2023 draft alongside Carlsson, remain without new contracts, and the ground beneath their negotiations just shifted dramatically. For fantasy managers, the contract drama comes with a real on-ice complication, because Bedard's summer took an unexpected turn.

The market Carlsson created

Before Carlsson signed his five-year deal at an $18 million average annual value, the projected range for a Bedard extension was meaningfully lower, in the mid-teens on a maximum-length deal. Carlsson's number blew the ceiling off. Reports now suggest the Bedard camp could seek $18 million or more, potentially pushing toward the league maximum salary in the low twenties. One franchise-altering contract has redefined what the other two young stars can command.

That dynamic explains the standoff. Fantilli, negotiating with Columbus, appears content to wait and see how the other dominoes fall before committing, and the Blue Jackets are hoping to sign him before another team steps forward with an offer sheet of their own. The 2023 draft's top trio has become the defining storyline of the NHL offseason, and the money involved has climbed with each passing week.

The Bedard wrinkle: shoulder surgery

The most important fantasy development is not about dollars. Chicago announced that Bedard underwent left shoulder surgery and will miss the beginning of the 2026-27 season. That is a significant complication for both the negotiation and, more directly, for fantasy managers counting on him. A player recovering from surgery who will not be available for the start of the year carries an availability discount that redraft managers must build into their valuations.

The injury does not diminish Bedard's talent or long-term outlook, but it does change the near-term math. A delayed season debut means missed games, a ramp-up period, and the possibility of rust before he returns to full production. Managers should treat him as an elite talent with a real early-season absence baked in, not as a full-season workhorse. The upside remains enormous; the timeline is now the question.

Fantasy fallout across the trio

Carlsson is the cleanest fantasy buy of the three now that his deal is done and his role is locked. Fantilli is the middle case: a talented, ascending center whose fantasy value is strong but whose exact contract and role clarity are still pending. Once he signs, his projection firms up, and a long-term deal in Columbus would confirm the top-line, power-play usage that drives production.

Bedard is the highest-ceiling name and the trickiest to value this summer. In dynasty formats, none of the contract or injury noise changes his standing as a foundational young star worth building around. In redraft leagues, the shoulder surgery is a genuine factor that should push his draft cost down relative to a fully healthy season and reward managers who can stash him through the early absence. The talent justifies patience; the injury demands it.

Why offer sheets are back in play

Carlsson's saga did more than reset the money. It proved that the offer sheet, long treated as a tactic teams rarely deploy, is a live weapon again in a cap environment where many clubs are flush with space. With a large number of teams carrying significant projected cap room, the threat of a rival prying away a young star is real, and that threat is shaping how quickly the remaining RFAs get done. A team that drags its feet risks being forced to match an uncomfortable number or lose an asset for picks.

For fantasy, the offer-sheet era is a tailwind for young players' roles. Contracts driven up by competitive pressure lock in the top-line and power-play deployment that produces points, because teams paying premium prices do not sit those players. The market's aggressiveness this summer is, indirectly, a bullish signal for the fantasy value of every elite young RFA whose deal it inflates. The dollars are a proxy for opportunity, and opportunity is what fantasy managers are really buying.

The Verdexed model take

Verdexed's hockey model separates talent and role from availability, and that separation is essential for this RFA class. Carlsson grades up on locked-in opportunity. Fantilli's projection carries mild uncertainty pending his contract and confirmed role. Bedard's per-game projection remains elite, but the model applies a games-played discount for the surgery and expected early-season absence, which lowers his redraft value while leaving his dynasty standing intact.

The broader signal the model reads is that Carlsson's contract inflated the market and, by extension, the organizational commitment likely to follow for Bedard and Fantilli. Teams paying premium prices deploy those players in premium roles, which supports strong long-term fantasy projections for all three. The near-term caveat is entirely about Bedard's health timeline, not his ability.

What to do in your league

Treat Carlsson as the safe buy, Fantilli as the ascending target whose value firms up on signing, and Bedard as a dynasty cornerstone but a discounted redraft asset because of the shoulder surgery. If you can absorb an early-season absence on your bench, Bedard at a reduced price is a strong value once he returns. In dynasty leagues, none of this changes his elite standing.

What's next

The Fantilli and Bedard negotiations will define the rest of the NHL offseason, with offer-sheet threats lingering after Carlsson's saga proved the tactic can work. For fantasy managers, the contract outcomes will confirm the roles, but the Bedard injury is the detail that actually moves the draft-day needle. Track the signings for role certainty, and price the shoulder surgery into any redraft plan that involves one of the game's best young players.