NHL Player Props: Model Projections & Lines
The featured NHL player props for the next slate: the model's projection for each stat, the line at which the over and under split evenly and its lean, plus a search for any player's full over/under projections from rolling game logs. Projections refresh each morning with the DFS run.
Featured board for Thursday, October 22: 20 players, 30 lines.
Featured props, model lines at the even split
| Player | Stat | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady TkachukL | Shots on goal | 4 | 55% | Even |
| Brady TkachukL | Goals | 1 | 49% | Even |
| Connor McDavidC | Shots on goal | 3 | 44% | Under |
| Connor McDavidC | Goals | 0.5 | 53% | Even |
| Macklin CelebriniC | Shots on goal | 4 | 52% | Even |
| Macklin CelebriniC | Goals | 0.5 | 58% | Over |
| Kirill KaprizovL | Shots on goal | 3.5 | 54% | Even |
| Kirill KaprizovL | Goals | 1 | 42% | Under |
| Auston MatthewsC | Shots on goal | 3 | 43% | Under |
| Auston MatthewsC | Goals | 0.5 | 58% | Over |
| Mark StoneR | Shots on goal | 2 | 45% | Even |
| Mark StoneR | Goals | 1 | 46% | Even |
| Matthew TkachukL | Shots on goal | 2.5 | 55% | Even |
| Matthew TkachukL | Goals | 0.5 | 32% | Under |
| Alex DeBrincatR | Shots on goal | 4 | 50% | Even |
| Alex DeBrincatR | Goals | 0.5 | 57% | Over |
| Sam ReinhartC | Shots on goal | 3 | 50% | Even |
| Sam ReinhartC | Goals | 0.5 | 60% | Over |
| Leon DraisaitlC | Shots on goal | 2.5 | 55% | Even |
| Leon DraisaitlC | Goals | 1 | 41% | Under |
| Matt BoldyL | Shots on goal | 3.5 | 52% | Even |
| Matt BoldyL | Goals | 0.5 | 57% | Over |
| Jake SandersonD | Shots on goal | 2.5 | 41% | Under |
| Jake SandersonD | Goals | 0.5 | 49% | Even |
| Jack HughesC | Shots on goal | 3.5 | 56% | Over |
| Jack HughesC | Goals | 0.5 | 32% | Under |
| Jack EichelC | Shots on goal | 2.5 | 53% | Even |
| Jack EichelC | Goals | 0.5 | 44% | Under |
| David PastrnakR | Shots on goal | 3 | 51% | Even |
| David PastrnakR | Goals | 0.5 | 40% | Under |
How to read this page
- The line shown is the model's own, set where the over and under are near coin flips. A book line well below it makes the over interesting; well above it, the under.
- Over and under percentages come from the spread of the player's recent outcomes around the projection, so high-variance players show wider splits than steady ones.
- Props are graded on the box score. The Model Card carries the day's best five and their record.